Bye bye Theresa

[GG.]

Papers are saying it looks like tomorrow’s vote will be May’s Deal with a 2nd ref.

They'll reject that one too.

I wouldn't bet on it. Across the parties MV3 was defeated by what, 58 votes? If you had just 30 people switch sides on the promise of a confirmatory referendum then that would be enough to get it over the line.

But they'd want assurances that the confirmatory ref is May's deal versus Remain and they won't get that.

[Simon]

But the very real alternative is crashing out. I know May has been criticised for 'bringing this back again and again' as time has counted down, but from her point of view it's mostly been successful hasn't it? From a 230 defeat down to 58 means 86 people have switched sides. She only needs another 30 and this time there's a PV, which is something that will persuade many.

[Swervin_Mervin]

But the very real alternative is crashing out. I know May has been criticised for 'bringing this back again and again' as time has counted down, but from her point of view it's mostly been successful hasn't it? From a 230 defeat down to 58 means 86 people have switched sides. She only needs another 30 and this time there's a PV, which is something that will persuade many.

Not as successful as the indicative votes. 2 rounds of voting has seen a huge swing towards options with very, very few votes either way. If she does come back with this attached to a 2nd Ref, she comes across as being willing to take ever more humiliating defeats.

[GG.]

But the very real alternative is crashing out. I know May has been criticised for 'bringing this back again and again' as time has counted down, but from her point of view it's mostly been successful hasn't it? From a 230 defeat down to 58 means 86 people have switched sides. She only needs another 30 and this time there's a PV, which is something that will persuade many.

Still a big ask I think with the available pool of floating voters that are out there with a mindset that Brexit should be delivered rather than a second ref as a route back to remain. I'm not saying she wouldn't get closer but with the Labour votes she'll win, she'll lose others that object to the 2nd ref entirely on any basis so net net she may not move much closer to passing it.

Even with Ken Clarke's customs union coming out as closest to passing the house and with fewer options, it only gained 3 extra votes between indicative votes round 1 and round 2.

[Simon]

Unless they changed the voting mechanism I don't see any indicative votes getting across the line. Something like 'all MPs must register a vote, and the choice is between x,y, and z with a transferable vote so that eventually one option gets across the 50% barrier.'

The problem then is that you still can't guarantee the necessary legislation down the road will carry the votes needed to enact it.

[Jobbo]

I don't think May's deal will pass without the support of her own party. And I'm not sure it'll get that. Look at last night's voting:

[Orange Cola]

It’s a shit show, isn’t it. Why the fuck are we going through this level of decision making now?

[IanF]

https://news.sky.com/story/totally-unac ... e-11682894

[Orange Cola]

The amount of shit pouring out of some MP’s at the moment is incredible, saying talking to labour to get a deal over the line is effectively giving the power away to the opposition. What, like you’ve managed to get anything sorted within your own party in the last two years?

Can we just knock the whole thing on the head now?

[Zonda_]

And when all the dust settles, step forward new PM Yvette Cooper...

[Jobbo]

It's a good job that convicted Peterborough MP hasn't been ejected from the Commons yet, isn't it? With the motion last night passing by one vote

[GG.]

Yes, really excellent...

I see no reason why Parliament shouldn't have the same rigorous standards on dishonesty as the SRA does for solicitors. Surely in the wake of the publicity around the Onasanya case IPSA should be developing this as a matter of urgency. It would have been quite a cull back at the time of the expenses scandal.

This isn't a partisan point either as I'd suspend the Tory MP that has recently admitted to submitting false expenses claims so the outcome of the vote would've been the same.

[Jobbo]

Oh, I agree - I think any MP convicted of a criminal offence, particularly a dishonesty offence, should immediately be kicked out of the Commons. The problem with that is that it leaves a constituency without representation. But it's dealt with effectively when a sitting MP dies, so it's not by any means insurmountable.

[Simon]

But it was without representation when she was in prison too. Just sort an election for as soon as the rules would allow

[ZedLeg]

Sickly victorian child Jacob Rees-Mogg has been getting hammered for this tweet this morning.



I thought the whole point of this was that we had no power in Europe .

[dinny_g]

I thought the whole point of this was that we had no power in Europe .

Plenty of power but no influence, on account of the Muppets we typically elect in European Elections...

[Beany]

I thought the whole point of this was that we had no power in Europe .

Plenty of power but no influence, on account of the Muppets we typically elect in European Elections...

I'm very much on the remain side of things, but dear god this is true.

[Jobbo]

Brexit has crossed into Freemen of the Land wibble. First the stupid application to court by an Essex high street solicitor who has his own political party, attempting to prove we already left the EU on 29 March, and now this:

[Rich B]

It’s got a crest and evryfing innit.

[DeskJockey]

It's like the ones declaring that Facebook can't use your pictures. Idiots will always be idiots.