Anti EV-only Petition

[mik]

Just in case you haven’t seen it and are interested?

Some attempt to push back on the UK plan for 2030 onwards - possibly buoyed by the recent mention of synthetic fuel (didn’t we discuss that potential on the last forum years ago?)

At the point of typing this hasn’t even hit the 10k submissions to be recognised, let alone the number needed to prompt any further parliamentary discussion.

[GG.]

Signed

[Swervin_Mervin]

What a load of drivel.

[Mito Man]

But someone think of the children

[GG.]

The opening line about electric cars not being as economical as petrol and diesel is certainly missing 'to produce' or 'not as economical as made out on a full life cycle basis'.

The rest is definitely arguable though. Electric cars will be more expensive than petrol/diesel equivalents for the foreseeable (particularly if mass take up means grants are phased out) and who knows if they still will be beyond 2035 when all ICE including hybrids are banned. I could certainly see it leading to people hanging onto older cars as a result.

Not to mention the cost of upgrading the grid to cope or the levies that will be applied to all households electricity bills to pay for it (and to compensate for lack of fuel duty). That's likely to affect even non-drivers and again, poorer people disproportionately.

[mik]

But someone think of the children

You & Pete?

[simon_g]

Drivel. Putting aside that substantial chunk of people who can't afford any car today (and the tax, insurance, fuel, etc that goes with it) - the remainder will find affordable EVs by 2030. And all the petrol and diesel stuff still on the road can continue to be, although likely made more expensive to run by local air pollution levies and the cost of fuel to go in them.

[GG.]

the remainder will find affordable EVs by 2030

I like that you can forecast that with total certainty 15 years into the future mystic meg!

This is the whole point about setting blanket cut offs - it is impossible to know where we'll be by then - whether infrastructure will cope etc. etc.

Even if there are lots of affordable EVs by then, is a 15 year old EV going to have decent range and what costs will be involved with swapping battery packs, etc. They clearly don't represent the same proposition as a 15 year old petrol equivalent which could be bought and run for peanuts with equivalent usability to a new car.

[Swervin_Mervin]

The opening line about electric cars not being as economical as petrol and diesel is certainly missing 'to produce' or 'not as economical as made out on a full life cycle basis'.

The rest is definitely arguable though. Electric cars will be more expensive than petrol/diesel equivalents for the foreseeable (particularly if mass take up means grants are phased out) and who knows if they still will be beyond 2035 when all ICE including hybrids are banned. I could certainly see it leading to people hanging onto older cars as a result.

Not to mention the cost of upgrading the grid to cope or the levies that will be applied to all households electricity bills to pay for it (and to compensate for lack of fuel duty). That's likely to affect even non-drivers and again, poorer people disproportionately.

Brand new electric cars might be more expensive for the foreseeable. Older EVs will trickle down the used market, and values generally might start to fall once they become more widespread. This is 10 years down the line remember. Many manufacturers won't even be making them by then out of choice, anyway.

THey go on to tie themselves in knots about older ICE cars being more environmentally unfriendly and so on.

It reads like a typical objector's letter to a planning application. Poorly constructed, enraged, devoid of many facts and research, and crucially devoid of any critical thinking.

[GG.]

See post above. I think a 15 year old EV and 15 year old fiesta are apples and oranges. I'd be happy to tool around in a 15 year old car, less so to deal with a phone or laptop with a 15 year old battery...

[Swervin_Mervin]

the remainder will find affordable EVs by 2030

I like that you can forecast that with total certainty 15 years into the future mystic meg!

The cheapest EV on AT is a 2011 Pug Ion on 60k at £4k. The next cheapest (non-Ion derivative) is a 2011 Leaf on 50k for £4.9k.

[GG.]

Exactly - so 400% of the cost of a petrol/diesel equivalent. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-detail ... ars&page=1

Look - I'm not anti-EV - if I had a driveway to park one on whilst it charged I'd have one now. I just hate governance by legislative fiat ignoring significant and important uncertainties. It's stupid.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Exactly - so 400% of the cost of a petrol/diesel equivalent. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-detail ... ars&page=1

Would you really trust an ICE Pug of that age more than an EV Nissan? And you're comparing current values. 10yrs down the line I'm fairly sure there'll be plenty of cheap EVs to be had. Besides, there'll be bargainous <£1k ICE cars aplenty as they won't be desirable to most. And that will happen well before 2030.

As for not being sure about running about in a car with a 15yo battery - why do you assume an older EV would be less reliable than an ICE equivalent given the relative simplicity of its drivetrain? They'll be easilty repaired and parts easily available - already there are plenty of used batteries around for not much.

[GG.]

Exactly - so 400% of the cost of a petrol/diesel equivalent. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-detail ... ars&page=1

Would you really trust an ICE Pug of that age more than an EV Nissan? And you're comparing current values. 10yrs down the line I'm fairly sure there'll be plenty of cheap EVs to be had. Besides, there'll be bargainous <£1k ICE cars aplenty as they won't be desirable to most. And that will happen well before 2030.

As for not being sure about running about in a car with a 15yo battery - why do you assume an older EV would be less reliable than an ICE equivalent given the relative simplicity of its drivetrain? They'll be easilty repaired and parts easily available - already there are plenty of used batteries around for not much.

We can do equivalent Nissan's at £5k if you want - the point will still stand.

As to future residuals, they may be cheap down the line but very likely not anywhere near as cheap as their petrol equivalent at same age/mileage but those that are available will be getting on as you've banned the sale of new ones. That is likely to have a significant impact on the personal mobility of low income people living in the countryside and not well served by public transport that to date buy £500 cars and run them for years until they are replaced.

The availability of cheap used battery packs into the future is unknowable at a point when there would be significant demand due to large numbers of EVs which need them replacing and the likely increase in cost to make them when the word needs much more of the raw materials because of a significant number of EVs. How good a 15 year old battery pack will be and the costs of changing it are again, unknowable.

Fine to have an aspiration of 2035 to have the bulk switchover but without sustainable energy production, necessary distribution infrastructure and accounting for the impact on lower income individuals, it is not a justifiable strategy.

[simon_g]

Even if there are lots of affordable EVs by then, is a 15 year old EV going to have decent range and what costs will be involved with swapping battery packs, etc. They clearly don't represent the same proposition as a 15 year old petrol equivalent which could be bought and run for peanuts with equivalent usability to a new car.

Battery pack swapping won't be a common thing. Yes, batteries will degrade to some extent (few as badly as early Leafs do though) but we're talking a bad case being 70% of original capacity - that's enough to trigger a warranty claim in the first 8 years on most cars. Something like a current Zoe or Corsa E that would mean going from 200+ miles range to 140ish. Those will be the £5k cars in a decade and that's perfectly usable for everyday commuting, shopping, school runs. Will they go the length of the country on a single charge? Nope, but they don't need to.

Remember too this info is stuff you can just pull from the diagnostics port and they decline gradually - it's not like an engine or gearbox fault that writes off cheap old ICE cars.

Used EV prices are in a weird bubble at the moment - loads of people have realised they make sense for their needs, they're seeing more friends/neighbours/colleagues using them, but the cheaper used ones today needed an eccentric early adopter to spend £20k+ on a very short range car back at the time. It's a very small pool of cars so prices are being kept up. Give it a decade of sales more than doubling every year and it'll be a different prospect.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Exactly - so 400% of the cost of a petrol/diesel equivalent. https://www.autotrader.co.uk/car-detail ... ars&page=1

Would you really trust an ICE Pug of that age more than an EV Nissan? And you're comparing current values. 10yrs down the line I'm fairly sure there'll be plenty of cheap EVs to be had. Besides, there'll be bargainous <£1k ICE cars aplenty as they won't be desirable to most. And that will happen well before 2030.

As for not being sure about running about in a car with a 15yo battery - why do you assume an older EV would be less reliable than an ICE equivalent given the relative simplicity of its drivetrain? They'll be easilty repaired and parts easily available - already there are plenty of used batteries around for not much.

We can do equivalent Nissan's at £5k if you want - the point will still stand.

As to future residuals, they may be cheap down the line but very likely not anywhere near as cheap as their petrol equivalent at same age/mileage. That is likely to have a significant impact on the personal mobility of low income people living in the countryside and not well served by public transport that to date buy £500 cars and run them for years until they are replaced.

The availability of cheap used battery packs into the future is unknowable at a point when there would be significant demand due to large numbers of EVs which need them replacing and the likely increase in materials cost to make them when the word needs much more of the raw materials. How good a 15 year old battery pack will be and the costs of changing it are again, unknowable.

Fine to have an aspiration of 2035 to have the bulk switchover but without sustainable energy production, necessary distribution infrastructure and accounting for the impact on lower income individuals, it is not a justifiable strategy.

Don't you worry about those in the rural areas. It's far from rare to see them knocking about in 30+yr old cars now - they'll be enjoying the last breed of ICE cars well into the century

Battery tech will likely change significantly, but I'm not convinced many will need changing regularly at all. And I don't buy the concerns about energy production and distribution - the network is changing. Not as rapidly as it should, nor as early as it should have, but it is changing. Battery storage, modular nuclear, smart energy management are all on the way. Maybe even home gasification tech for energy production.

[GG.]

Let's see I guess. I fully expect that if/when the country is not ready to cope with the changeover the 2035 date will get pushed out. We see it commonly in the legal world where deadlines are set with an aim of influencing behaviour but then stretch out into the future when its clear we won't get there (as I think will be the case here).

An interesting and not entirely dissimilar test will be the expansion to the ULEZ to my area in September of this year. Accordingly to TfLs propaganda "4 in 5" of London's cars are already compliant and so it not going to be a big inconvenience. This clearly must take into account the existing ULEZ areas as around where I am approximately 50% of all cars on the road will attract the daily charge. Going to be some massive ructions come the autumn I expect when people get hit hard in the wallet.

[V8Granite]

The issue isn’t affordability it’s suitability.

I drove a Model 3 LR on Monday and some things I really liked and others I didn’t see as suitable.

Performance was amazing but the instant traction was more impressive. The interior design I really liked apart from the awful touchscreen, it’s a mess and you are constantly taking your eyes off the road to do anything.

The range though was rubbish, 250 miles he has averaged when driving at 70 and gentle acceleration. Now take into account it’s a small car (relatively speaking) what would you have to spend to take a family of 4, a dog and a weeks worth of kit away ?

Then re-charge times aren’t guaranteed and the extra stops involved.

The electric car is definitely on its way but a natural progression as technology improves is best imo. Not a hammer blow and if it doesn’t suit you then tough luck.

Maybe the network and cars themselves will be where they need to be by 2030 but that remains to be seen. I just hope people who don’t suit a car like that aren’t pushed away from places by being unfairly taxed.

I don’t think the argument put across in the petition is the correct argument to make.

Dave!

[mik]

The range though was rubbish, 250 miles he has averaged when driving at 70 and gentle acceleration. Now take into account it’s a small car (relatively speaking) what would you have to spend to take a family of 4, a dog and a weeks worth of kit away ?

The petition wording is a bit crap and the points made are a bit silly. But the premise is fair - are we really going to be ready for EV-only in 2030?

Dave - your only current choices for what you describe are really the ModelX, Merc GLE or E-Tron. All are rather pricey, and a 2.5 tonne 4x4 EV can’t match the miles per kWH efficiency of smaller things like Model3

[simon_g]

Let's see I guess. I fully expect that if/when the country is not ready to cope with the changeover the 2035 date will get pushed out. We see it commonly in the legal world where deadlines are set with an aim of influencing behaviour but then stretch out into the future when its clear we won't get there (as I think will be the case here).

An interesting and not entirely dissimilar test will be the expansion to the ULEZ to my area in September of this year. Accordingly to TfLs propaganda "4 in 5" of London's cars are already compliant and so it not going to be a big inconvenience. This clearly must take into account the existing ULEZ areas as around where I am approximately 50% of all cars on the road will attract the daily charge. Going to be some massive ructions come the autumn I expect when people get hit hard in the wallet.

Anything petrol just needs to be Euro 4, lots was from 2001-ish, and everything was by 2006. That covers a hell of lot of the cars I see about, city dwellers tended not to buy diesels anyway. Even for diesels it needs to be Euro 6 and that's everything 2015 onwards. Getting rid of the old diesels will be very welcome.