OV9

duncs500 wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:26 pm I don't know what the sample size is in other countries, so it's difficult to know how we're doing!

Explosive Newt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm There are some funny differences internationally. E.g. Germany currently has 1622 cases of which 3 are dead and 9 are listed in serious/critical condition (i.e. <1% death or serious illness) vs Italy has 10,149 cases of which 631 dead and 877 seriously/critically unwell (~15%). France, Spain, South Korea somewhere in the middle. I suspect it overwhelmed Italy very quickly and they don't have the resources to test mild cases hence they are massively underestimating the number of cases. But in these situations, there can be a multiplicative effect to mortality as there aren't enough ventilators or enough medical staff to go around and people who would have survived with good care are dying for want of it. The other thing to say is that Italy has a significantly older population (the average age of those dying is 81 in Italy).

Meanwhile in the UK - I think we're very close to the point where we should be properly doing social distancing. Cases jumped by 83 from yesterday having had a daily growth of 50/day for the previous few days. I think that we have cases with no obvious connections to foreign travel / other diagnosed cases indicates there is circulation in the population, probably amongst people who think they have a bit of a winter virus. I think we're already at the stage where people who can should be working from home and schools/social gatherings/etc should be closing down. If the growth becomes exponential then an Italy style lock down is sensible.

Don't get me wrong - this is coming - but by socially distancing, hand washing, being sensible we can slow it down so that health care doesn't get overwhelmed.

I'm off to take a brave pill before my ICU shift this weekend....

Simon wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:36 pm

Explosive Newt wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:55 pm There are some funny differences internationally. E.g. Germany currently has 1622 cases of which 3 are dead and 9 are listed in serious/critical condition (i.e. <1% death or serious illness) vs Italy has 10,149 cases of which 631 dead and 877 seriously/critically unwell (~15%). France, Spain, South Korea somewhere in the middle. I suspect it overwhelmed Italy very quickly and they don't have the resources to test mild cases hence they are massively underestimating the number of cases. But in these situations, there can be a multiplicative effect to mortality as there aren't enough ventilators or enough medical staff to go around and people who would have survived with good care are dying for want of it. The other thing to say is that Italy has a significantly older population (the average age of those dying is 81 in Italy).

Meanwhile in the UK - I think we're very close to the point where we should be properly doing social distancing. Cases jumped by 83 from yesterday having had a daily growth of 50/day for the previous few days. I think that we have cases with no obvious connections to foreign travel / other diagnosed cases indicates there is circulation in the population, probably amongst people who think they have a bit of a winter virus. I think we're already at the stage where people who can should be working from home and schools/social gatherings/etc should be closing down. If the growth becomes exponential then an Italy style lock down is sensible.

Don't get me wrong - this is coming - but by socially distancing, hand washing, being sensible we can slow it down so that health care doesn't get overwhelmed.

I'm off to take a brave pill before my ICU shift this weekend....

Simple - Germany has had it for a far shorter time than italy, and therefore Italy has more 'closed' cases, as per my earlier post. We'll likely see the death rate in Germany rise, unfortunately.

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:56 pm Someone explained on Reddit that Germany records deaths differently to other countries. For example, if you have cancer but die of Coronavirus, your death will be recorded as being of cancer. I don’t know how true that is.

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:56 pm Someone explained on Reddit that Germany records deaths differently to other countries. For example, if you have cancer but die of Coronavirus, your death will be recorded as being of cancer. I don’t know how true that is.

Simon wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:39 pm How is everyone's workplace handling this?

Mito Man wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:17 pm I think you’re best off getting it now if it really does end up affecting 70% of the population!