Coronavirus

[duncs500]

The thing to remember is that until now the UK has only been able to test 1500 people per day. So I believe the number of cases can only be based on a 1500 person sample size.

[duncs500]

I don't know what the sample size is in other countries, so it's difficult to know how we're doing!

[Explosive Newt]

I don't know what the sample size is in other countries, so it's difficult to know how we're doing!

Data not available everywhere but we're probably about the 4th or 5th biggest tester in the world
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... 9-testing/

[Swervin_Mervin]

Plans afoot to increase test capacity up to 10,000/day

[Simon]

There are some funny differences internationally. E.g. Germany currently has 1622 cases of which 3 are dead and 9 are listed in serious/critical condition (i.e. <1% death or serious illness) vs Italy has 10,149 cases of which 631 dead and 877 seriously/critically unwell (~15%). France, Spain, South Korea somewhere in the middle. I suspect it overwhelmed Italy very quickly and they don't have the resources to test mild cases hence they are massively underestimating the number of cases. But in these situations, there can be a multiplicative effect to mortality as there aren't enough ventilators or enough medical staff to go around and people who would have survived with good care are dying for want of it. The other thing to say is that Italy has a significantly older population (the average age of those dying is 81 in Italy).

Meanwhile in the UK - I think we're very close to the point where we should be properly doing social distancing. Cases jumped by 83 from yesterday having had a daily growth of 50/day for the previous few days. I think that we have cases with no obvious connections to foreign travel / other diagnosed cases indicates there is circulation in the population, probably amongst people who think they have a bit of a winter virus. I think we're already at the stage where people who can should be working from home and schools/social gatherings/etc should be closing down. If the growth becomes exponential then an Italy style lock down is sensible.

Don't get me wrong - this is coming - but by socially distancing, hand washing, being sensible we can slow it down so that health care doesn't get overwhelmed.

I'm off to take a brave pill before my ICU shift this weekend....

Simple - Germany has had it for a far shorter time than italy, and therefore Italy has more 'closed' cases, as per my earlier post. We'll likely see the death rate in Germany rise, unfortunately.

[Swervin_Mervin]

There are some funny differences internationally. E.g. Germany currently has 1622 cases of which 3 are dead and 9 are listed in serious/critical condition (i.e. <1% death or serious illness) vs Italy has 10,149 cases of which 631 dead and 877 seriously/critically unwell (~15%). France, Spain, South Korea somewhere in the middle. I suspect it overwhelmed Italy very quickly and they don't have the resources to test mild cases hence they are massively underestimating the number of cases. But in these situations, there can be a multiplicative effect to mortality as there aren't enough ventilators or enough medical staff to go around and people who would have survived with good care are dying for want of it. The other thing to say is that Italy has a significantly older population (the average age of those dying is 81 in Italy).

Meanwhile in the UK - I think we're very close to the point where we should be properly doing social distancing. Cases jumped by 83 from yesterday having had a daily growth of 50/day for the previous few days. I think that we have cases with no obvious connections to foreign travel / other diagnosed cases indicates there is circulation in the population, probably amongst people who think they have a bit of a winter virus. I think we're already at the stage where people who can should be working from home and schools/social gatherings/etc should be closing down. If the growth becomes exponential then an Italy style lock down is sensible.

Don't get me wrong - this is coming - but by socially distancing, hand washing, being sensible we can slow it down so that health care doesn't get overwhelmed.

I'm off to take a brave pill before my ICU shift this weekend....

Simple - Germany has had it for a far shorter time than italy, and therefore Italy has more 'closed' cases, as per my earlier post. We'll likely see the death rate in Germany rise, unfortunately.

That doesn't explain their death rate (2 from 1600) figure relative to France (35 from 1700) and Spain (47 from 2000)

[NotoriousREV]

Someone explained on Reddit that Germany records deaths differently to other countries. For example, if you have cancer but die of Coronavirus, your death will be recorded as being of cancer. I don’t know how true that is.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Someone explained on Reddit that Germany records deaths differently to other countries. For example, if you have cancer but die of Coronavirus, your death will be recorded as being of cancer. I don’t know how true that is.

Cheating fvckers!

[Simon]

Aye, they've been taking late stage Coronavirus patients out to the hospital car park and knocking them over with the village bus. Bingo. 0 Coronavirus deaths.

[Mito Man]

Someone explained on Reddit that Germany records deaths differently to other countries. For example, if you have cancer but die of Coronavirus, your death will be recorded as being of cancer. I don’t know how true that is.

Yep same as China.

[Matty]

[Simon]

An interesting article on the modelling here.

[Mito Man]

I think you’re best off getting it now if it really does end up affecting 70% of the population!

[Simon]

Yeah, good point.

How is everyone's workplace handling this? I'm really pleased with what we've announced so far. It's likely I won't see the office again till April, or maybe later.

[NotoriousREV]

How is everyone's workplace handling this?

No unnecessary travel, lots of big events/gatherings cancelled, all classroom training cancelled, customer visits still allowed if the customer wants one. Rumours of one team going home and staying there. The offices seem very empty but I’ve haven’t been to any of the offices when Coronavirus wasn’t a thing so have nothing to compare it to. I’m expecting wfh to be the norm for the next few weeks.

[dinny_g]

I think you’re best off getting it now if it really does end up affecting 70% of the population!

I was thinking that earlier Mito...

[Rich B]

Nothing too specific so far beyond telling them if we’ve been anywhere abroad and following guidelines on hand washing etc...

I hope it doesn’t end up as too much WFH - I like my office!

[integrale_evo]

I'm going to find it pretty hard to run my machine from home. Then again if all our customers are closed there won't be anything to make...

Our advice has been don't come in if you're ill, if you start feeling unwell at work let someone know and you'll be stuck in an isolation room while they contact the relevant authorities.

[Zonda_]

I work in a college, business as usual.

[Explosive Newt]

Everyone is informally trying to work from home. Research activities are right down. We’re also all assuming we’ll be pulled out of research and shoved towards the clinical coalface sooner or later.