Singapore Summit

[GG.]

So... when is Trump getting his nobel peace prize then?

On the basis that (i) nominations closed for the 2009 award 11 days after Obama entered office (and therefore had achieved a sum total of nothing at the time he was nominated) (ii) the prize was awarded ostensibly for efforts towards global de-nuclearisation and (iii) even when awarded after 8.5 months in office it was widely noted that there had been "no major foreign policy achievements to date", then I'd say the Norwegians are up a shitty creek without much in the way of a paddle

[Gavin]

The world certainly seemed more inclined toward peace when Obama was in charge. Perception can be a helper I guess.

[GG.]

What, you mean at the time when that prize was awarded, where North Korea had given no commitment to de-nuclearisation and was still issuing threats and no Iranian deal had been signed. I fail to see where that perception comes from unfortunately.

That's akin to thinking war didn't look likely in the late 1930s because our approach towards German re-armament was non-engagement/appeasement. I can see how certain people thought that that was an approach that would work, but ultimately it was founded on naivety wasn't it.

[DaveE]

I think for many, myself included, the mere thought that Trump might actually achieve something that forces you to acknowledge the achievement is incredibly hard to swallow.

It would fit their/my bias and narrative that he's a complete blow-hard who achieves nothing, makes everything worse etc.

I'm not saying that won't be the case, but it's terrifying that we might have to say "You know what, he did well there..." (through tightly gritted teeth)

[GG.]

I agree and my whole point here is that these awards should be given for a period of sustained effort and achievement towards peace over a protracted period of time. That would exclude the Donald getting it but Obama also (and arguably a good deal of the previous recipients).

Best to give people awards on achievements rather than on nothing more than being an idealist, eh?

[Rich B]

Surely he should follow his own school shootings solution logic and just give even bigger nukes to South Korea to use if the North kicks off.

[Orange Cola]

I think it's pretty clear that this is all words at the moment, similar things have happened with NK in the past but the only long term actions afterwards have been an increase is nuclear activity.

It's good dialogue but I'd expect to see hard evidence that there's been change before a Nobel prize is even talked about.

I wonder if Kim's plan is to open up the country in a careful manner to the wider world so he's able to develop the enconomy and get very rich very quickly whilst retaining power. In return the US get a base right on the door step of China and Russia.

[JLv3.0]

I was rather hoping they'd exchange insults, then start actually fighting before firing a few nukes off for the lolz.

[duncs500]

I think it's pretty clear that this is all words at the moment, similar things have happened with NK in the past but the only long term actions afterwards have been an increase is nuclear activity.

It's good dialogue but I'd expect to see hard evidence that there's been change before a Nobel prize is even talked about.

I wonder if Kim's plan is to open up the country in a careful manner to the wider world so he's able to develop the enconomy and get very rich very quickly whilst retaining power. In return the US get a base right on the door step of China and Russia.

In fairness to KJU, we don't actually know whether he has always wanted to open it up. I believe the military in NK are very powerful and he may have not been able to just enter power cold and make changes quickly without being overthrown by hardline elements in the military/government.

[GG.]

It's good dialogue but I'd expect to see hard evidence that there's been change before a Nobel prize is even talked about.

The Nobel Committee best get on the blower to Barry then and say something to the effect of "sorry mate - rules have changed. orders are we're no longer allowed to be sycophantic fuckwits so you best give us that award back as we're now not allowed to give them out until we've got hard evidence you've actually achieved something".

[GG.]

I think it's pretty clear that this is all words at the moment, similar things have happened with NK in the past but the only long term actions afterwards have been an increase is nuclear activity.

It's good dialogue but I'd expect to see hard evidence that there's been change before a Nobel prize is even talked about.

I wonder if Kim's plan is to open up the country in a careful manner to the wider world so he's able to develop the enconomy and get very rich very quickly whilst retaining power. In return the US get a base right on the door step of China and Russia.

In fairness to KJU, we don't actually know whether he has always wanted to open it up. I believe the military in NK are very powerful and he may have not been able to just enter power cold and make changes quickly without being overthrown by hardline elements in the military/government.

Always best to remember that he's in his 30s and spent his teenage years in a Lycee in Switzerland. His background is markedly different and therefore his outlook is not to be assumed to be as opposed to change as his ancestors. Obviously he hasn't exactly given the impression of a moderniser thus far (bar the last two months or so)!

Completely agree with your analysis about the regime and scenario that he was parachuted into. Can't imagine (assuming of course he wanted to change anything) that that would be an easy act to pull off.

Of course this is all as likely as not to be a massive ruse and it turn out that he is no more than a chip off the old block.

[Mito Man]

I wonder if Kim's plan is to open up the country in a careful manner to the wider world so he's able to develop the enconomy and get very rich very quickly whilst retaining power. In return the US get a base right on the door step of China and Russia.

This is what I think. Young Kim knows he won’t win any wars and has realised that he to cooperate if he is to remain. He’s executed all his relatives which would have been against the idea of opening up and wanted to follow his fathers ideals of nuclearisation.
Kim just wants to be the equivalent of an Arab Sheikh - unchallenged leader of a country, profiting from selling off natural resources for trade, guaranteed safety from the West, pass it all down to his kids...

[GG.]

I wonder if Kim's plan is to open up the country in a careful manner to the wider world so he's able to develop the enconomy and get very rich very quickly whilst retaining power. In return the US get a base right on the door step of China and Russia.

This is what I think. Young Kim knows he won’t win any wars and has realised that he to cooperate if he is to remain. He’s executed all his relatives which would have been against the idea of opening up and wanted to follow his fathers ideals of nuclearisation.
Kim just wants to be the equivalent of an Arab Sheikh - unchallenged leader of a country, profiting from selling off natural resources for trade, guaranteed safety from the West, pass it all down to his kids...

That does sound likely and a better scenario than a non-cooperative rogue state.

There is of course a good point to be made about facilitating this all the while ignoring human rights abuses and millions held in gulags. Though if you want to be consistent on that point you're going to find it quite hard given that China cares little for the rule of law or human rights and still retains a form of forced labour camps (see here if you're interested https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-21822684 )

[Beany]

Er, has KJU committed to anything? He's made the same mealy mouthed statements about 'moving towards' denuclearisation, and explicitly hasn't agreed to confirmed, validated, inspected denuking.

Functionally, it's exactly the same as it was before as far as I can tell, except that Trump has got his little PR win, and KJU has been given license to pretend he's on the same footing as the most powerful country in the world.

I'm looking at this and wondering if we're talking about the same thing.

[ZedLeg]

Good to see your dislike of anyone left of Thatcher is international GG .

I never agreed with Obama's peace prize tbh. Some say it was a statement on a move away from the war mongering of the Bush administration but Obama's run wasn't exactly full of peace was it.

Also this summit, like everything Trump does is just another step dictated by the Russians pulling his strings. After shitting all over the place at the G7 summit I don't think he could be anymore blatant about it now.

[Richard]

I’d love to go on holiday to NK

The videos on YouTube always look fascinating

[JLv3.0]

Yep I've got an odd hankering to visit there as well for some reason. Never will but it's an interesting place, sadly for all the wrong reasons.

[Orange Cola]

KJU has already dispatched a few of the party but as there's very little information available we don't know why he got rid of them, specifically were their views anti or pro dictatorship? He has claimed to have collapsed the tunnels at the nuclear test site but again, is this coincidence collapsing from over testing, an actual act or just words?

I think KJU is running out of options fast, but he knows there's an option that will work very for him by opening up to the outside world because he's got many years of living in Europe experiencing that. If I was in his position and I wanted to increase power then asking the wider world for support is exactly how I'd do it, even it meant asking America to assassinate a few key individuals to make the change easier.

Pick where you want your base, you can have the land rent free and we'll make sure we get McDonalds and Burger King up and running in the local village in no time.

[GG.]

Good to see your dislike of anyone left of Thatcher is international GG .

Who are we talking about here anyway - Obama? He isn't really left on the political spectrum by UK standards.

I don't dislike Obama. I do dislike that he was given acclaim in many areas when he didn't deserve it.

[tim]

KJU has already dispatched a few of the party

About 150. That's not "a few" !