Coronavirus

[Swervin_Mervin]

Only history will show what the longer term effects of lockdown are, and whether it, or a form of it, was the right/wrong decision.

Whilst I agree wholeheartedly, I fear that even that may not prove to be the case - it seems that even excess deaths are recorded slightly differently from one country to the next. You can guarantee that some will choose to count them in such a way as to meet their own political motives.

[Swervin_Mervin]

On a lighter note - we've just received our 3rd food delivery box from HM Gov't. This despite having been phoned 2 weeks ago to ask if we still need them and us saying no. And the wife having made the same notification online last week after our 2nd delivery...

Still, most of it's going straight to the local foodbank - so at least the 330 gets another run out tomorrow morning! Have to say as well that the contents of the foodboxes have been pretty bloody reasonable imo, despite intial media coverage (at least locally) to the contrary. This week's includes

1 box of cereal
1 loaf of bread
2 cartons of longlife milk
1 carton of longlie fruit juice
1 bag of tea bags and coffee sachets
1 bar of soap
1 bottle of shower gel
2 tins of beans
2 tins of tomato soup
1 tin of chopped toms
1 tin of meat (chicken meatballs this week)
1 bag of Pembs potatoes
1 bag of carrots
1 bag of apples
1 bag of oranges
1 pack of pasta
1 multipack bag of Maryland cookies
2 bog rolls

So I've just wasted an hour trying to give this away - only 1 foodbank donation point operating across most of S Manchester and it's only open Mon, Wed and Fri, but not BH's. So the fresh food would likely spoil by next week. Phoned up only to find out that they don't accept fresh food anyway (despite not saying anything to me on 2 previous drop-offs).

Ah well, got to think of something to do with a shit-ton of carrots and potatoes now. Apples will be diced up, frozen and will go into a pud.

[GG.]

This is interesting:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... ons-model/

Interesting, but does it really makes any difference? We're essentially just copying other countries further ahead than us at this point.

It very much does because if the study is wildly inaccurate as to the effect of the spread of the disease it feeds into the debate about the efficacy and timing of the lockdown measures. We don't have to follow countries that are currently ahead of us in the curve with regard to how and when we roll back or keep enforcing measures (though we can certainly learn from what happens).

There is also likely to be some resurgence of cases when restrictions are released so if the modelling was wrong the first time we don't want to rely on it again when predicting a second peak.

The conclusion at the end is also one that needs to be debated:

"On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves."

[mik]

[mention]Swervin_Mervin[/mention] Probably that too.

Such is the pressure of our immediate-term world thinking these days.

CEO of a large corporation for 10 years, and the company fails to deliver a profit for 1 quarter - “he/she has to go! Incompetent!”

I don’t believe there are any good politicians, but I can see why people are so quick to cover their tracks when the shit hits the fan, as the braying mobs and press demand something has to be done / heads must roll, and others cave in to the pressure in order to save themselves being looped into the same fate by association.

[drcarlos]

Only history will show what the longer term effects of lockdown are, and whether it, or a form of it, was the right/wrong decision.

Whilst I agree wholeheartedly, I fear that even that may not prove to be the case - it seems that even excess deaths are recorded slightly differently from one country to the next. You can guarantee that some will choose to count them in such a way as to meet their own political motives.

Saw an analysis on Sky news on this subject yesterday. Where we under reported deaths until recently by about 40% because of not reporting the care home deaths, Italy is still under reporting by (I think it was) 118%, so their figures are likely to double overnight when these are added in. Not sure what Spain is doing in their reporting but it could be similar.
Historical records of averages and excess deaths will take time to analyse for sure and then it will become clearer.

[Alex_]

Ordered something from Florida on Tuesday afternoon and it just arrived. Also no customs charge. What virus?

[duncs500]

This is interesting:

https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-revie ... ons-model/

Interesting, but does it really makes any difference? We're essentially just copying other countries further ahead than us at this point.

It very much does because if the study is wildly inaccurate as to the effect of the spread of the disease it feeds into the debate about the efficacy and timing of the lockdown measures. We don't have to follow countries that are currently ahead of us in the curve with regard to how and when we roll back or keep enforcing measures (though we can certainly learn from what happens).

There is also likely to be some resurgence of cases when restrictions are released so if the modelling was wrong the first time we don't want to rely on it again when predicting a second peak.

The conclusion at the end is also one that needs to be debated:

"On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves."

You could argue for a living... oh wait.

There are many variables to when we should've gone into lock down, when we come out of it, and how. Difficult decisions have to be made, I doubt that any model is capable of assessing all of them accurately anyway. I'm happy I'm not the one to have to make those decisions!

The country's leadership can't really win, it's just a question of how badly they lose.

Regarding your final point of discussion, I don't know if the insurance sector is really geared towards academic epidemiology in they way that it is required to inform government decision making or even if I as general advocate of capitalism and the private sector would be particularly comfortable with it in terms of informing policy. I am however a strong believer in the government being a bit smarter in who they employ and how they spend our taxes, if that means paying top dollar for the brightest and best, I'm behind that 100%.

[Mito Man]

So what’s the story with care home deaths and people dying at home? Obviously it spreads like wildfire in care homes but why were they not admitted to hospital? And those people who died at home?
In Spain and Italy their healthcare got saturated to the point where they wouldn’t accept people over a certain age. As I understand it this never happened in the U.K. and no one has been refused treatment according to what the government say so really there shouldn’t be people getting so poorly that they’re dying in care homes or their own homes.

[Simon]

My great aunt died in a care home with pneumonia over a decade ago. Seems there was no compulsion even then to get her into hospital.

[Swervin_Mervin]

So what’s the story with care home deaths and people dying at home? Obviously it spreads like wildfire in care homes but why were they not admitted to hospital? And those people who died at home?
In Spain and Italy their healthcare got saturated to the point where they wouldn’t accept people over a certain age. As I understand it this never happened in the U.K. and no one has been refused treatment according to what the government say so really there shouldn’t be people getting so poorly that they’re dying in care homes or their own homes.

I'd imagine it's more symptomatic of the general view of treating those in care homes that fall ill with serious illness.

Are the numbers dying in care homes especially bad compared to other countries?

[Orange Cola]

See also: folks in care homes who do not want to go to hospital (for any number of reasons), can’t cope with the journey or change, are vulnerable in other ways or quite simply wouldn’t survive anyway and choose to stay put.

[Nefarious]

Interesting, but does it really makes any difference? We're essentially just copying other countries further ahead than us at this point.

It very much does because if the study is wildly inaccurate as to the effect of the spread of the disease it feeds into the debate about the efficacy and timing of the lockdown measures. We don't have to follow countries that are currently ahead of us in the curve with regard to how and when we roll back or keep enforcing measures (though we can certainly learn from what happens).

There is also likely to be some resurgence of cases when restrictions are released so if the modelling was wrong the first time we don't want to rely on it again when predicting a second peak.

The conclusion at the end is also one that needs to be debated:

"On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves."

You could argue for a living... oh wait.

There are many variables to when we should've gone into lock down, when we come out of it, and how. Difficult decisions have to be made, I doubt that any model is capable of assessing all of them accurately anyway. I'm happy I'm not the one to have to make those decisions!

The country's leadership can't really win, it's just a question of how badly they lose.

Regarding your final point of discussion, I don't know if the insurance sector is really geared towards academic epidemiology in they way that it is required to inform government decision making or even if I as general advocate of capitalism and the private sector would be particularly comfortable with it in terms of informing policy. I am however a strong believer in the government being a bit smarter in who they employ and how they spend our taxes, if that means paying top dollar for the brightest and best, I'm behind that 100%.

At the very least, it's an argument for not relying solely on one model.

But that relies on the deeply flawed assumption that the data modelling was genuinely used to drive policy.

The reality is that pretty much all decisions were taken on a political basis - be that based on ideology (e.g. rejecting the EU PPE procurement scheme, adopting a business-led compensation scheme rather than a citizens' income), vested business interests (e.g. not restricting air travel, not closing construction sites, classifying financial services staff as "essential", flawed emergency ventilator procurement), managing government popularity (e.g. not banning mass gatherings/closing pubs) or avoiding later criticism (e.g. u-turning the herd immunity strategy and following other countries' lockdowns) - the "science" was only ever a facade to hide behind. The SAGE panel was cherry picked, its agenda guided by government officials; the Imperial model was unquestioningly used to the exclusion of all others because it fitted the already chosen course of action.

[integrale_evo]

My great aunt died in a care home with pneumonia over a decade ago. Seems there was no compulsion even then to get her into hospital.

My grandad phoned for his own ambulance from his care home bed as the staff didn't believe him when he said he felt quite ill and would like to see a doctor.

[Broccers]

My great aunt died in a care home with pneumonia over a decade ago. Seems there was no compulsion even then to get her into hospital.

My grandad phoned for his own ambulance from his care home bed as the staff didn't believe him when he said he felt quite ill and would like to see a doctor.

Shocking. My parents cleaner also cleaned the local care home. Apparently it's agency staff who have helped spread the virus between various establishments. For the amount of money the homes charge you would expect better.

[Shlergen]

PPE bought from Turkey not suitable.

Sorry but wtf. Panic buy.

[Orange Cola]

PPE bought from Turkey not suitable.

Sorry but wtf. Panic buy.

Starmers time to shine is going to be how he handles any any inquiry or investigation after this.

[Broccers]

Anyone else looking at local groups you're in moaning about fireworks for 5 minutes a week at 8pm?

[Beany]

I had to do an emergency stop to not run over someone's cat that got frightened by a massive banger than went off when I was coming back from getting food, so yeah, fuck the inbred spastics with their fucking fireworks.

[Broccers]

I had to do an emergency stop to not run over someone's cat that got frightened by a massive banger than went off when I was coming back from getting food, so yeah, fuck the inbred spastics with their fucking fireworks.

I would imagine a responsible cat owner would keep their cat in on Thursday at 8pm. The wankers banging pans annoy me more.

[Mito Man]

Anyone else looking at local groups you're in moaning about fireworks for 5 minutes a week at 8pm?

Yep, it’s cool though as I can hear all the ships at Dover blast their horns. The Facebook group is filled with interesting characters to say the least. I think I live in the most patriotic town in the country going off all the VE Day plans they have...