Coronavirus

[ZedLeg]

It’s satire apparently, hard to tell the difference between her and the people at the recent protests though.

[GG.]

Being reported today that the peak of Covid deaths passed on 8 April and therefore infections themselves peaked two weeks before that... actually before full lockdown came into place. Shows how even the consensus of what was necessary / effective of the last few weeks could yet still unravel.

Also looks like the majority of other European countries will shortly be embarking on phased re-openings. It does seem to imply that social distancing measures have a marked effect even short of a full lockdown which In turn seems to be a strong argument against a long period of extreme measures. Clearly large gatherings / reopening of pubs, etc. would likely be some way off.

[Beany]

Being reported today that the peak of Covid deaths passed on 8 April and therefore infections themselves peaked two weeks before that... actually before full lockdown came into place.

....by who?

[drcarlos]

Being reported today that the peak of Covid deaths passed on 8 April and therefore infections themselves peaked two weeks before that... actually before full lockdown came into place.

....by who?

Please, yes please share some linkage.

[GG.]

Was listening to an interview on Radio 4 so I don't have a link. Seems to be pretty widely reported though:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-21/cor ... -ons-data/

"Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: “From an epidemiological perspective we can say that the numbers are consistent with the peak happening on April 8."

[Mito Man]

Yeah I read it somewhere on the BBC yesterday, not willing to trawl through it all to find it again though.

[GG.]

On a two week incubation it would put peak infection two days into lockdown so actually not strictly prior to it coming in as I suggested above (and heard) but I think the point they're making is that the tide doesn't turn in two days, advice must have been having an effect already.

[NotoriousREV]

Maybe I’m being a bit thick, but according to the graphs, infections and deaths continued to climb well after 8th April, so how can that have been the peak? Genuinely asking.

[duncs500]

Maybe I’m being a bit thick, but according to the graphs, infections and deaths continued to climb well after 8th April, so how can that have been the peak? Genuinely asking.

I'm assuming it's the time that the rate of increase stopped going up. So the numbers stabilised somewhere in the region of 600 to 800 per day.

[NotoriousREV]

Ah, so it’s peak of infection rate, not peak of infections? That kind of makes sense.

[GG.]

This one looks to support what they're saying (BBC/NHS), but it is deaths at 800ish per day not infections which would have peaked c.2 weeks earlier:

[Jobbo]

It's only one man who is claiming the peak rate of infection was 8 April so far. Reported on Monday as well, not today. And it seems to have been reported in those notable science journals, the Daily Mail and the Mirror. I'd like some peer reviews before taking this as fact.

[GG.]

Look at my link above - it has been more widely reported and followed this briefing / discussion with a panel of three experts responding to figures released by the independent ONS: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/dige ... 19-deaths/

[NotoriousREV]

The graph on the Worldometers site looks a bit different. I accept that the day deaths are announced isn’t necessarily the day the death occurred, but this shows that the peak day was the 10th April, but if you look at the overall trend rather than individual numbers (because we know daily numbers are prone to inaccuracies), it looks like the trend was still climbing.

E6EEF780-5F80-4F6E-A8D6-67FFF1BDC94E.jpeg (182.05 KiB) Viewed 2244 times

[Jobbo]

I'm not challenging the data, just the solidity of the analysis - your link doesn't take me to anything and the other one to the ITV site is the original press story. I don't doubt the conclusion which looks eminently logical, but on its own this is just one piece of news, not justification for relaxing the lockdown.

[Jobbo]

Rev, I imagine that there is a wide spread of timescales from infection to death, where COVID19 leads to death - it could be days to weeks, even months. So the infection rate is probably more important that the death rate. However, without widespread testing the infection rate involves a good bit of assumption.

[duncs500]

[mention]NotoriousREV[/mention] If you go on a moving average of a few days though, the 9th is a dip, so maybe that's how they've looked at the statistics. Not that any of this makes much difference to us!

[NotoriousREV]

Rev, I imagine that there is a wide spread of timescales from infection to death, where COVID19 leads to death - it could be days to weeks, even months. So the infection rate is probably more important that the death rate. However, without widespread testing the infection rate involves a good bit of assumption.

I know, but that guy is making the claim based on deaths, unless I’ve misread it.

[Orange Cola]

When the deaths reach zero we still need a period of time locked down to clear any infections which are still about, is there any data on how many people are infected in the UK and the lead times behind that?

[Jobbo]

Rev, I imagine that there is a wide spread of timescales from infection to death, where COVID19 leads to death - it could be days to weeks, even months. So the infection rate is probably more important that the death rate. However, without widespread testing the infection rate involves a good bit of assumption.

I know, but that guy is making the claim based on deaths, unless I’ve misread it.

Certainly seems to be the headline, you're right. And he's using statistics to establish what he considers to be the peak death rate, then extrapolating back to when the peak infection rate was - because we simply don't have enough data from testing. Which is a reasonable thing to try to do, but he must be able to explain the degree of confidence in his assertion of 8 April being the date, because it's certainly not 100%.