The ICE

[Mito Man]

Some aspects of EVs are annoying but the plugs aren’t and you’d be pretty stupid to mess it up. Fwiw I’ve never come across an incompatible plug, all the chargers have type 2 or ccs. You may be stuffed if you have a Nissan as that plug is old hat but you can buy an adapter as my neighbour charged his leaf using the same cable I used to charge the i3.

It’s all a bit like at the petrol station where you can get up to 4 nozzles and then you have a 50/50 guess or you’ll grenade your engine and then you have to pick between the cheaper fuel or the more expensive one

[GG.]

All this talk of charging four wheeled white goods has made me realise how many hours of my life I've saved not having to research a thousand different types of plug.

Seriously though - there will be no mass transition to BEVs until the infrastructure/technology makes a next generation shift - i.e. roads / car parks with inductive charging under each space. Basically something to avoid the inevitable bottlenecking which will very quickly happen when the number of EVs exceeds the number of chargers by a huge multiple. The differing standards among chargers/providers exacerbates the problem but dealing with that doesn't solve the issue of capacity generally.

Going back to the 2035 target - the most annoying thing about top down regulation is that the powers that be set a target for a changeover with an arbitrary deadline and care nothing about whether or not it is achievable and the chaos that accompanies everyone scrambling to find solutions. Anyone working in finance will be familiar with that at the moment with the LIBOR phase out. No clue of what will easily replace it but a totally unrealistic deadline that no more LIBOR loans are to be written by Q3 this year

Most people will charge at home and this will cater for a majority of journeys. Charging connectors appear to have standardised (type 2/CCS).

Christ I'm no EV evangelist but some of you sound like horse and cart drivers upon hearing of the invention of the ICE

32% of homes have no off street parking so you've 1/3 of the housing stock that that's not going to work for (going back to the cables danging from windows example someone posted earlier). That will require a move to something like inductive charging pads otherwise you're going to disenfranchise a lot of people from the electric changeover - ironically those in inner cities where pollution is most marked.

I think you also underestimate the chaos that would result from a large scale move to BEVs and insufficient charging capacity away from home. A lot of people are not going to be organised enough or will unexpectedly have to do journeys for which they haven't enough charge. If you have millions of EVs you will still need a sea change in charging capacity away from the home.

Oh and of course let's not forget about the elephant in the room... power generation capacity.

Look - I'm not saying EVs will not in the end be better than ICEs - I'm sure that day will come. My criticism is aimed more at the silly willy waving re arbitrary targets "Neh neh we can ban things 5 years earlier than yooooou". Its childish.

[dinny_g]

I sort of agree with GG...

I think it's going to take a bit more than wind farms and fast charging points to effectively replace the ICE. That's sort of trying to fit the new technology to the existing use infrastructure.

[Mito Man]

I’ve seen many residential streets in London where a lot of the streetlights have had a EV connector retrofitted. It’s being done by ubitricity and it’s a pretty clever solution as they’re just tapping off the 3.2kw feed. Good for residents though as they get special rates and usually they’re in resident only parking areas plus with the slow charging you need 24 hours to fully charge up.

[GG.]

That would be a stopgap solution - there is one on our street in fact. Still not going to be enough capacity to have everyone plugged in at night given lampposts are about 30m apart and limited charging speed as you note.

[Swervin_Mervin]

All this talk of charging four wheeled white goods has made me realise how many hours of my life I've saved not having to research a thousand different types of plug.

Seriously though - there will be no mass transition to BEVs until the infrastructure/technology makes a next generation shift - i.e. roads / car parks with inductive charging under each space. Basically something to avoid the inevitable bottlenecking which will very quickly happen when the number of EVs exceeds the number of chargers by a huge multiple. The differing standards among chargers/providers exacerbates the problem but dealing with that doesn't solve the issue of capacity generally.

Going back to the 2035 target - the most annoying thing about top down regulation is that the powers that be set a target for a changeover with an arbitrary deadline and care nothing about whether or not it is achievable and the chaos that accompanies everyone scrambling to find solutions. Anyone working in finance will be familiar with that at the moment with the LIBOR phase out. No clue of what will easily replace it but a totally unrealistic deadline that no more LIBOR loans are to be written by Q3 this year

Most people will charge at home and this will cater for a majority of journeys. Charging connectors appear to have standardised (type 2/CCS).

Christ I'm no EV evangelist but some of you sound like horse and cart drivers upon hearing of the invention of the ICE

32% of homes have no off street parking so you've 1/3 of the housing stock that that's not going to work for (going back to the cables danging from windows example someone posted earlier). That will require a move to something like inductive charging pads otherwise you're going to disenfranchise a lot of people from the electric changeover - ironically those in inner cities where pollution is most marked.

I think you also underestimate the chaos that would result from a large scale move to BEVs and insufficient charging capacity away from home. A lot of people are not going to be organised enough or will unexpectedly have to do journeys for which they haven't enough charge. If you have millions of EVs you will still need a sea change in charging capacity away from the home.

Oh and of course let's not forget about the elephant in the room... power generation capacity.

Look - I'm not saying EVs will not in the end be better than ICEs - I'm sure that day will come. My criticism is aimed more at the silly willy waving re arbitrary targets "Neh neh we can ban things 5 years earlier than yooooou". Its childish.

So 68% of homes would be capable of home-charging. And that's before you factor in the roll-out of on-street charging inrfastructure, which has already started, albeit not quick enough imo. And even then, many of those 32% are likely to be in apartment developments, for which I'd imagine it's going to start to become increasingly important that site landlords start to consider having to put charging infrastructure in.

I still don't believe for a second that generation capacity will actually prove to be an issue. Our energy usage is going to change markedly as well, with increased reliance on storage (both public and private). That will tie in with intelligent charging being able to charge BEVs during different demand periods, use them as stores for the network itself, and so on. You'll start to see a change in tariffs as well, able to cater for this change in energy usage/storage.

This is still 15 years away, and as Simon's already highlighted, things have moved on considerably in the last 15 years. And the rate of change is crucial - most of that change in the last 15 years has actually occurred more recently.

[NotoriousREV]

100% of cars won’t be plug-in only come 2035, only 100% of new cars sold. 23% of households don’t have cars anyway. So of the 32% of households that don’t have off-street parking, it isn’t going to be massive issue. And that’s assuming we struggle to install a few power outlets over the next 15 years.

Don’t panic, Mr Mainwaring!

[duncs500]

Wonder what it will do to the price of ICE cars.

[NotoriousREV]

Apparently the ban doesn’t apply to motorbike. Join us...

[duncs500]

Apparently the ban doesn’t apply to motorbike. Join us...

What's going on with electric bikes? In many ways they've got more potential than the cars Shirley?

[Mito Man]

It’s because Boris is a big bike fan apparently. He bought a beast which is the joy of his life.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Wonder what it will do to the price of ICE cars.

You mean used prices when the ban comes in or new now that it's been announced?

The former - most appliances will become dirth cheap I'd expect, with some of the rare stuff holding firm. The latter - nowt for some time?

You'd think manufacturers will reach a point in the next 5-10years where they'd want to stop offering ICE cars new anyway. Given the shift in ownership from purchase to rental that's happened, and the fact they could face a massive hit on residuals, why would they continue?

[NotoriousREV]

Apparently the ban doesn’t apply to motorbike. Join us...

What's going on with electric bikes? In many ways they've got more potential than the cars Shirley?

Batteries are big and heavy, bikes are small and light. There’s a couple of very good, but very expensive electric bikes out there (Zero and Harley Davidson for example). But they’re not quite as well developed as cars yet, though. Range is the killer due to the battery size constraints and the fact that so many bikes are used as a weekend toy. You need a 200 mile range, realistically, which is about double what they actually have in the real world. I’d consider one as a commuter, though, if they were about 25% cheaper.

I’ve ridden a KTM Freeride-E a few times (MX bike on an MX track) and it was great fun, and for an MX novice a lot easier to ride than a 125 with 6 gears.

[duncs500]

Wonder what it will do to the price of ICE cars.

You mean used prices when the ban comes in or new now that it's been announced?

The former - most appliances will become dirth cheap I'd expect, with some of the rare stuff holding firm. The latter - nowt for some time?

You'd think manufacturers will reach a point in the next 5-10years where they'd want to stop offering ICE cars new anyway. Given the shift in ownership from purchase to rental that's happened, and the fact they could face a massive hit on residuals, why would they continue?

Both I suppose. The challenge is to not be holding an ICE car when the bottom falls out. Easily done with new-ish cars that most people turn over relatively frequently anyway, less so if you want to have something nice in the garage that you want to keep for longer (like I do).

[Gwaredd]

I wonder if the new 'Smart' motorways have been future proofed for this onslaught of electric cars with the capabilty for a rapid charger to be installed in the SOS bays allowing for an emergency top-up, say enough to get you to the next charge point/services should you run out. I'm fully aware there isn't this facilty for ICE cars, but I'm ignoring the dangers of storing fuel at the side of the road & the onus on the drivers to ensure they don't run out. Surely it would be a good thing from a safety aspect, as I'm sure as shit if people can drive along the motorway with their door mirrors folded in & not realise, they'll run out of battery on a regular basis.

Also, as dumb as this may sound, do you ever think there'll be a possibilty of charging a car as it goes along via some kind of charge pad in the road? Kinda like a really advanced version of how you can charge your phone. I'm sure some egghead is working on it already. Plugging something in to charge just seems really old fashioned already. This would also solve the need to fit bigger, heavier batteries & end range problems.

[NotoriousREV]

Munki was on Twitter the other week saying his mate's Missus had run out of charge in the middle of nowhere in their EV. She had to wait several hours for the recovery company to send out a bloke in a van, who couldn't do anything so she had to wait a few more hours for a man with a flatbed. In an ICE car, she could've just trudged to the nearest petrol station, bought a can, trudged back to the car and driven home.

That said, what sort of idiot runs out of fuel on a regular basis?

[Mito Man]

I struggle to find sympathy for people who do something so stupid then bitch about waiting hours for recovery. Maybe it’ll teach them a lesson to not do it next time.

[duncs500]

Apparently the ban doesn’t apply to motorbike. Join us...

What's going on with electric bikes? In many ways they've got more potential than the cars Shirley?

Batteries are big and heavy, bikes are small and light. There’s a couple of very good, but very expensive electric bikes out there (Zero and Harley Davidson for example). But they’re not quite as well developed as cars yet, though. Range is the killer due to the battery size constraints and the fact that so many bikes are used as a weekend toy. You need a 200 mile range, realistically, which is about double what they actually have in the real world. I’d consider one as a commuter, though, if they were about 25% cheaper.

I’ve ridden a KTM Freeride-E a few times (MX bike on an MX track) and it was great fun, and for an MX novice a lot easier to ride than a 125 with 6 gears.

Interesting, I just remembered watching the electric ones going round the IOM TT a couple of years ago and it looked pretty rapid... I guess it was one lap or something though so not very practical.

[mik]

All we have to do is replace all tarmac with an induction charging surface. Charge as you drive/park. Simples.

[NotoriousREV]

Re: IoM Zero TT: Yeah, they only do 1 lap rather than 4 or 6 for the ICE bikes.

First race in 2010 was won with an average speed of 96.8mph, in 2019 it was won at 121.9mph. That’s 26% faster in 9 years.