Bye Bye Boris!

[Jobbo]

I suggested you google the term you used so you understand the meaning of it. But if you can't be bothered and want to duck out due to stupidity, fair enough.

[ZedLeg]

I sometimes have to remind myself that GG is younger than me, he has big boomer energy .

[NotoriousREV]

I sometimes have to remind myself that GG is younger than me, he has big boomer energy .

The result of having lived a privileged and somewhat sheltered life, I'd guess. I mean look at his comments about someone on £50k sending 2 kids to private school. He simply has no idea about what constitutes normal life for the majority of people. Hell, I forget how difficult some of my friends have it.

[ZedLeg]

Aye, it’s funny how quickly you get used to not counting the pennies when you start making decent money.

I can’t wait for the day when I’m complaining about having to pay vat on the food for the ducks in my moat.

[duncs500]

I think most of this is healthy debate, so let's not resort to name calling.

The main thing that grates a little for me is from a few pages ago (mainly GG, but others too I think), saying you shouldn't vote for X because Y will get in etc. If everyone voted for the party who's policies they agree with most, we should get a result that is a reflection of the national view.

As for VAT on schools, don't really care, but common sense dictates it would need to be applied gradually or with a significant amount of lead in. Parents being forced to take their children out of a school and away from their friends is pretty heartless even if they are wealthier than average, doesn't mean they deserve that. I moved secondary school at a crucial time and it was a pretty unpleasant experience that certainly changed how I grew up and probably partly moulded who I am today (for better or worse I don't know).

[ZedLeg]

I think a lot of the attack press at labour this election has got to the point where people think that if they get in they’ll be rolling tanks through the foyer of BT and Virgin the day after.

Nothing in politics happens over night. People would have plenty of warning.

[duncs500]

Also FWIW I'd say nobody really knows whether Brexit or PMJC would do most harm to the country. The only simple logic I can apply is that with Brexit we can't reverse it in 5 years if we realise we've made a terrible mistake!

[DeskJockey]

Also FWIW I'd say nobody really knows whether Brexit or PMJC would do most harm to the country. The only simple logic I can apply is that with Brexit we can't reverse it in 5 years if we realise we've made a terrible mistake!

Clever words!

[ShockDiamonds]

Also FWIW I'd say nobody really knows whether Brexit or PMJC would do most harm to the country. The only simple logic I can apply is that with Brexit we can't reverse it in 5 years if we realise we've made a terrible mistake!

Clever words!

</thread>

[Sundayjumper]

Knock yourself out: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/201 ... AXAJ-_SGS4

REV, I know you've gone a bit evangelical about this blog post. I finally got around to reading it and looking at the data.

1) He's including budget borrowing forecasts up to 2022 and attributing them to the Conservatives. That's not a given so I think it's a bit of a stretch to include it. I don't think it makes a huge difference though. For my assessment below I've stuck to actuals.

2) Annual borrowing rocketed in 2008/09 & 2009/10 (under Labour) and has been steadily coming down since then (under Conservatives):

Fin. Year £Bn Government
2006/07 40.0 Labour
2007/08 45.7 Labour
2008/09 117.8 Labour
2009/10 158.3 Labour
2010/11 140.4 Conservative
2011/12 122.2 Conservative
2012/13 125.4 Conservative
2013/14 105.5 Conservative
2014/15 96.9 Conservative
2015/16 81.2 Conservative
2016/17 56.2 Conservative
2017/18 56.4 Conservative
2018/19 41.4 Conservative

3) The jump in 2008/09/10 was of course not Labour's fault, the crash was a global thing, and we're still feeling the effects of it now (as you can see above, annual borrowing has only just got back down to pre-crash levels), so maybe ignore 2008/09 onwards ? For total & average borrowing we then we get:

Govt. Borrowed Yrs Average/yr
Labour 279.4 27 10.3
Cons. 318.9 35 9.1

4) Annual borrowing is new debt, for an overall picture you need to look at total debt as this includes the effect of paying off existing debt. If you do his "years in office" thing again and look at the change in debt then the Conservatives have still created more debt than Labour, but for an average year it's much closer than he works to suggest with his calculation:

Govt. Change Yrs Average/yr
Labour 737.0 29 25.4
Cons. 1,033.8 44 23.5

And if you do as above and exclude 2008/09 onwards the tables are turned:

Govt. Change Yrs Average/yr
Labour 284.8 27 10.5
Cons. 257.3 35 7.4


Conclusion - you can make the numbers prove anything you want

(borrowing data came from the same source he used, House of Commons Library, years in office came from Wikipedia)

[duncs500]

Also FWIW I'd say nobody really knows whether Brexit or PMJC would do most harm to the country. The only simple logic I can apply is that with Brexit we can't reverse it in 5 years if we realise we've made a terrible mistake!

Clever words!

</thread>

That doesn't mean either of them are a good thing!

[Sundayjumper]

And in fact, if you take 2008/09 onwards as something seperate called CRISIS:

Govt. Borrowing Yrs. Average/yr
Labour 279.4 27 10.3
Cons. 318.9 35 9.1
CRISIS 1,101.7 11 100.2


Govt. Change Yrs. Average/yr
Labour 284.8 27 10.5
Cons. 257.3 35 7.4
CRISIS 1,228.7 11 111.7

It completely outweighs the 62 years previous. Whoever was in power in that period was going to get shafted with the aftermath.

[DeskJockey]

Clever words!

</thread>

That doesn't mean either of them are a good thing!

Nobody is saying they are. One is a guaranteed disaster, the other a possible one. I'd argue that GG has them the opposite way round from most of us on here.

[duncs500]

</thread>

That doesn't mean either of them are a good thing!

Nobody is saying they are. One is a guaranteed disaster, the other a possible one. I'd argue that GG has them the opposite way round from most of us on here.

I don't think Brexit is a guaranteed disaster, there are successful countries not in the EU after all. I don't necessarily think we have the leaders or politics to avoid disaster but luck plays a part too. It's just a lottery to my mind, and I'm not a big gambler... I feel I (and most IMO) stand to lose a lot more than we stand to gain.

[DeskJockey]

That doesn't mean either of them are a good thing!

Nobody is saying they are. One is a guaranteed disaster, the other a possible one. I'd argue that GG has them the opposite way round from most of us on here.

I don't think Brexit is a guaranteed disaster, there are successful countries not in the EU after all. I don't necessarily think we have the leaders or politics to avoid disaster but luck plays a part too. It's just a lottery to my mind, and I'm not a big gambler... I feel I (and most IMO) stand to lose a lot more than we stand to gain.

You are right, but none of those countries have decided to leave without a plan, set unrealistic timelines and ambitions, then failed spectacularly in trying to make them real.

[Zonda_]

I wonder how long Labour would keep Corbyn as PM if he did get in.

[duncs500]

Nobody is saying they are. One is a guaranteed disaster, the other a possible one. I'd argue that GG has them the opposite way round from most of us on here.

I don't think Brexit is a guaranteed disaster, there are successful countries not in the EU after all. I don't necessarily think we have the leaders or politics to avoid disaster but luck plays a part too. It's just a lottery to my mind, and I'm not a big gambler... I feel I (and most IMO) stand to lose a lot more than we stand to gain.

You are right, but none of those countries have decided to leave without a plan, set unrealistic timelines and ambitions, then failed spectacularly in trying to make them real.

I can't argue with that.

[duncs500]

I wonder how long Labour would keep Corbyn as PM if he did get in.

They couldn't shift him when he hadn't won anything!

[DeskJockey]

I don't think Brexit is a guaranteed disaster, there are successful countries not in the EU after all. I don't necessarily think we have the leaders or politics to avoid disaster but luck plays a part too. It's just a lottery to my mind, and I'm not a big gambler... I feel I (and most IMO) stand to lose a lot more than we stand to gain.

You are right, but none of those countries have decided to leave without a plan, set unrealistic timelines and ambitions, then failed spectacularly in trying to make them real.

I can't argue with that.

Stop that. You're breaking the internet.

[ZedLeg]

I wonder how long Labour would keep Corbyn as PM if he did get in.

I don't think they'd have a choice, opponents have been unsuccessful so far and an election win would be seen as an endorsement. I'd expect there to be a similar situation to what's happening now in the tories.

The momentum types would consolidate behind him but the more centre, new labour types would drag their heels and they'd struggle to get anything from their more left wing ideas done.