The AI Thread

[DeskJockey]

Anthropic going public, probably next month with a valuation of over $1.5 trillion. Just pulling numbers out of AIrses now

FTFY.

[Mito Man]

I like the bit where they ask us to invest in their product which also has a risk of wiping us out.

Are we the turkeys now?

[Gavster]

The bubble is bubbling, with $466 billion in AI related debt been issued in the first 9 months of this year and Wall Street has started buying loads of credit default bonds too.

https://www.ft.com/content/6dd31584-064 ... 25a6b1a6=1

[Beany]

I like the bit where they ask us to invest in their product which also has a risk of wiping us out.

Are we the turkeys now?

Well, they want you to invest in a product that hasn't made any money and has generated staggering, nation state-scale levels of debt for everyone but Nvidia, the shovel seller, on the basis that it might one day be profitable. And that's just this year so far.

Oh, and they've spent the last few years lying about what it's capable of and where it'll go. OpenAI admitted that their frontier model 'going rogue' was actually them having shitty security practises, and that's the charitable interpretation - quite a few people reckon they just fired it off at the internet to generate headlines so they could put the models away - so people wouldn't find out that they're not as clever, nor progressing as quickly, as they're claiming. Anthropic did similar thanks to a shitty sandbox that had internet access. Test system had the same name as the real public system, so it went for the public system instead.

It wasn't super intelligent AIs escaping their constraints, it was shitty security and possibly even false-flagging, but the ultimate PR flack was used to keep the hype train going.

The problem is they reckon they have exponential improvements, but anyone using these tools and can see it's been logarithmic. My sophisticated chart based on vibes, appropriately enough:

AIDevelopment.jpg (49.05 KiB) Viewed 95 times

The first 90% of the code accounts for the first 90% of the development time. The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time."

That quote is from Bell Labs back in the day, but it holds true for AI development - remember a few years ago, it seemed like AI was improving in leaps and bounds. Note how it's not done that for the last two years? It's already peaked. It can't *get* hugely better because it's already broadly plateaued in terms of what it's capable of from a logical standpoint.

There's no magic trick here. It's maths, and the way they're doing it, it has a limit. And they can't do it better, or they already would be. What's actually happening is that people are trying to find ways to make the weighted matrixes of vectorised text (or whatever) run faster, but not make them fundamentally more accurate because they're about as accurate as they can get already - and that isn't accurate enough to really steal jobs.

Sure, you can bang a harness in with 20 steps of recursive checking fixing and checking, but if there's an issue the model can't imagine a way around, it'll just fail to fix it faster and with more steps. It still won't be able to fix it.

No-one has a better way of doing this, even in university research labs (never mind AI research labs who pick those up that research to utilise it).

The AI industry is very likely full on fucking fucked, this is just them desperately trying to get out of it with some cash in hand because the VC funding is drying up. If you invest in Anthropic, you deserve the bath you're gonna take. There's a solid chance that Anthorpics IPO is the wake up call that makes the market run screaming from AI and brings the whole house of cards crashing down.

Of course, that relies on the Invisible Hand of the Market (tm) being sensible. Fat chance of that, going by recent performance. They'll privatise the profit, and socialise the debt again, just like 2008 I'd wager, now that these companies are tOo bIg tO fAiL....

[Matty]

https://www.ft.com/content/6dd31584-064 ... 25a6b1a6=1

For the poors
https://archive.is/20261021232951/https ... 747799ccd5

[Mito Man]

Microsoft spending so much on AI that they’re binning, erm, “buying out” a quarter of their workforce so that they can spend even more money on AI

With the easy money getting harder to come across it’s going from a circle jerk to something quite a bit more graphic for my vocabulary.

Free article
https://apnews.com/article/microsoft-b ... 9adf6837e1

[Gavster]

https://www.ft.com/content/6dd31584-064 ... 25a6b1a6=1

For the poors
https://archive.is/20261021232951/https ... 747799ccd5

The archive sites .is and .today have been really sketchy and unreliable recently. I've used them a fair bit when researching videos, but now finding a lot of the links don't work anymore.

[Jobbo]

https://www.ft.com/content/6dd31584-064 ... 25a6b1a6=1

For the poors
https://archive.is/20261021232951/https ... 747799ccd5

The archive sites .is and .today have been really sketchy and unreliable recently. I've used them a fair bit when researching videos, but now finding a lot of the links don't work anymore.

I tend to go to https://www.removepaywall.com/ which has a few options.