Trump

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Sundayjumper
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Re: Trump

Post by Sundayjumper »

mik wrote: Mon Mar 31, 2025 10:18 pm Someone on the Lotus forum was highlighting - hang on I'll just paste his thought:

When he was in his slagging off Zelenskyy phase a couple of weeks back he was claiming Zelenskyy wasn't legitimate because he hadn't held elections when they were due a year or so into the war with Putin. The rest of the world backed Zelenskyy as legitimate for continuing during war time without the disruption of holding elections. All Trump has to do is manufacture a conflict somewhere (Greenland?) and he can claim legitimate continuity for a third term on the same basis.
That doesn’t quite work. Ukraine can’t have an election because a chunk of it is under Russian control, and millions of its citizens have fled the country to safety elsewhere. Ukraine also can’t end the war by simply going home.

America won’t have those problems as the agressor invading Canada. Using the Russian invasion as a precedent for not having an election would require the message to be “Putin doesn’t have elections so we shouldn’t either” and that’s not true, he does, they’re just transparently rigged. And even with the current lunacy the idea of moving to Russian-style voting would be a stretch.

However, I have previously said a manufactured crisis will be used to “temporarily delay” elections. That could easily be an internal crisis - as Beany says.

The almost legitimate route is far simpler - he runs as VP with a patsy like Junior as president who resigns immediately and the VP takes over. Because the constitution says you can’t be elected more than twice this is OK because in that scenario he’s not been elected. Another bit of the constitution however says if you’re not eligible to be president you can’t be VP. That should prevent this but SCOTUS will do some hand waving about eligibility and declare it totally fine.

He’ll cling onto power until his last breath. The alternative is prison and that’s one of the things he’s genuinely terrified of.
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Beany
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Re: Trump

Post by Beany »

This might sound familiar
The President of Russia is limited to no more than two six-year terms. Prior to constitutional amendments in 2020, the limit applied only to consecutive terms, allowing a term-limited president to be elected again after one term out of office.

The only presidents to be term-limited are Boris Yeltsin in 2000 and Vladimir Putin in 2008 and again in 2024. Since becoming president, Putin has taken several measures to circumvent his term limits. After leaving office in 2008, he retained control over the executive as prime minister, holding power over his chosen successor President Dmitry Medvedev.

The 2020 amendments then exempted him from being term-limited in 2024 by excluding his previous terms, allowing him two more terms before reaching the constitutional limit. Presidents have refrained from abolishing term limits entirely because of the broad support for limits among the Russian people and the potential for political backlash.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Term_limits_in_Russia
DaveE
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Re: Trump

Post by DaveE »

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Apr 01, 2025 8:51 am
mik wrote: Mon Mar 31, 2025 10:18 pm Someone on the Lotus forum was highlighting - hang on I'll just paste his thought:

When he was in his slagging off Zelenskyy phase a couple of weeks back he was claiming Zelenskyy wasn't legitimate because he hadn't held elections when they were due a year or so into the war with Putin. The rest of the world backed Zelenskyy as legitimate for continuing during war time without the disruption of holding elections. All Trump has to do is manufacture a conflict somewhere (Greenland?) and he can claim legitimate continuity for a third term on the same basis.
That doesn’t quite work. Ukraine can’t have an election because a chunk of it is under Russian control, and millions of its citizens have fled the country to safety elsewhere. Ukraine also can’t end the war by simply going home.

America won’t have those problems as the agressor invading Canada. Using the Russian invasion as a precedent for not having an election would require the message to be “Putin doesn’t have elections so we shouldn’t either” and that’s not true, he does, they’re just transparently rigged. And even with the current lunacy the idea of moving to Russian-style voting would be a stretch.

However, I have previously said a manufactured crisis will be used to “temporarily delay” elections. That could easily be an internal crisis - as Beany says.

The almost legitimate route is far simpler - he runs as VP with a patsy like Junior as president who resigns immediately and the VP takes over. Because the constitution says you can’t be elected more than twice this is OK because in that scenario he’s not been elected. Another bit of the constitution however says if you’re not eligible to be president you can’t be VP. That should prevent this but SCOTUS will do some hand waving about eligibility and declare it totally fine.

He’ll cling onto power until his last breath. The alternative is prison and that’s one of the things he’s genuinely terrified of.
You're approaching this as a logical person though 😂
Last edited by DaveE on Tue Apr 01, 2025 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Sundayjumper
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Re: Trump

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Previous terms don't count towards the term limit. Brilliant Russian logic. They'll probably try it in the US. They're already in a logical knot to come up with wording that says the 2 term limit is only for consecutive terms so as to allow 1+2 terms but also disallow 2+1 because that would let Obama run in 2028, yet still allow themselves leeway for 1+2+n+n+n+n.

Actually - I think they already did something about time not existing. Something about executive orders being time limited to a number of days, so they declared the current sitting of congress isn't lots of individual days (the now discredited idea that a day is 24h), and it's actually one really really really long day and the EOs stay in place for the duration.
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mik
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Re: Trump

Post by mik »

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Sundayjumper
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Re: Trump

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Now threatening a 500% (that’s not a typo) tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium.

Europe still buys quite a bit of Russian gas.
DaveE
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Re: Trump

Post by DaveE »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... la-founder

I'm sure this is completely unrelated to his donations to Trump

Probably doesn't hurt that one of his lawyers is Brad Bondi, the brother of Pam Bondi (who's Trump's Attorney General)
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integrale_evo
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Re: Trump

Post by integrale_evo »

Sundayjumper wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 8:19 am Now threatening a 500% (that’s not a typo) tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium.

Europe still buys quite a bit of Russian gas.
Have he and Vlad had a fall out, or is this some sort of false posturing to make it look like he’s not being controlled by Russia?
Cheers, Harry
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Mito Man
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Re: Trump

Post by Mito Man »

They fell out after ceasefire negotiations
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20x7z36d56o.amp
How about not having a sig at all?
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Sundayjumper
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Re: Trump

Post by Sundayjumper »

integrale_evo wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 10:01 am
Sundayjumper wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 8:19 am Now threatening a 500% (that’s not a typo) tariff on imports from countries that buy Russian oil, petroleum products, natural gas or uranium.

Europe still buys quite a bit of Russian gas.
Have he and Vlad had a fall out, or is this some sort of false posturing to make it look like he’s not being controlled by Russia?
A bit of both I guess. He's getting frustrated because he's desperate to get a deal - any deal at all - even a terrible deal that falls apart in a year or two - just so that he can say "I did a deal" and lobby to buy himself a Nobel peace prize. He is insanely jealous that Obama got one. I expect Putin told him before the election that they'd be able to do a deal, but now is just prevaricating and delaying. Putin doesn't really need a deal. He needs time. He's winning that at the moment.
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Beany
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Re: Trump

Post by Beany »

Boy, imagine a populist authoritarian leader with no respect for democratic rule lying to someone. :lol:

I'm sure Trump will not reflect on this for even a femtosecond.
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mik
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Re: Trump

Post by mik »

Beany wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 11:36 am Boy, imagine a populist authoritarian leader with no respect for democratic rule lying to someone. :lol:
Putin must be really angry about him doing that.
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Re: Trump

Post by Rich B »

How long has he got waving his tariffs threat flag? There has to be a point where the world can’t be arsed with dealing with the USA and diverts their business elsewhere for some stability. 1, 2, 5, 10 years?
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Sundayjumper
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Re: Trump

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Canada & Mexico have already pretty much told him to shove it. We just need the EU to do the same. They’re supposedly tabling a proposal to ban US imports. Not a tariff. Straight up ban.
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Re: Trump

Post by DaveE »

I guess long term Trump would need to find a way to make it more appealing to stomach the upfront cost and effort to relocate all that manufacturing to the US and long term to prevent them from just off-shoring again later

After all, the reason they make cars in Mexico not the US is because it's cheaper and they make more profit

If I was GM I'd be doing some serious sums now to work out of long term it's cheaper to just pay the tariffs

Or maybe I'll just sell my Mexican made cars in Mexico and Canada and abandon the US market completely? 😂
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dinny_g
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Re: Trump

Post by dinny_g »

So what do we think this "Liberation Day" announcement tonight (21:00 UK time) will contain ?
JLv3.0 wrote: Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:26 pm I say this rarely Dave, but listen to Dinny because he's right.
Rich B wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:57 pm but Dinny was right…
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DeskJockey
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Re: Trump

Post by DeskJockey »

Nothing liberating.
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DaveE
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Re: Trump

Post by DaveE »

dinny_g wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:05 pm So what do we think this "Liberation Day" announcement tonight (21:00 UK time) will contain ?
I doubt even Trump knows/has made it up yet
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Mito Man
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Re: Trump

Post by Mito Man »

What’s he liberating America from?
How about not having a sig at all?
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dinny_g
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Re: Trump

Post by dinny_g »

Mito Man wrote: Wed Apr 02, 2025 1:18 pm What’s he liberating America from?
Dunno... Reality I guess
JLv3.0 wrote: Thu Jun 21, 2018 4:26 pm I say this rarely Dave, but listen to Dinny because he's right.
Rich B wrote: Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:57 pm but Dinny was right…
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