Bye Bye Sunak..

[Beany]

I just cringed so hard that the skin on my neck and upper back sloughed off, and is currently taking a two week walking holiday in the Lake District.

[Sundayjumper]

Future PM there. Not this election, but maybe the next.

The Conservatives are getting destroyed right now. They’ll move further right to try to differentiate themselves and get smaller still, to the benefit of Reform. They’ll eventually get absorbed into Reform. Labour will fail to deliver on any of the pretty words they put out and next election Farage sweeps in on a populist authoritarian ticket.

Don’t laugh. It’s possible.

[MikeHunt]

Grim shady

[DaveE]

I only recently found this out...

Reform UK Party Limited was founded in November 2018 as an “entrepreneurial political start-up”. Mr Farage owns 53 per cent of the company.

It says it is a UK national political party “offering common-sense policies on immigration, the cost of living, energy and national sovereignty,” according to its website.

Mr Farage is able to remove Mr Tice as director, and take the decision to unilaterally dissolve the organisation, making him the party’s ultimate decision-maker.

Meanwhile, Mr Tice has a minority holding of around one-third of shares, and chief executive Paul Oakden and party treasurer Mehrtash A’zami each hold less than 7 per cent.

As it is registered with the electoral commission, Reform UK is allowed to run for election like other major political parties on 4 July.

But with 115,00 paying supporters with no voting power to influence policy, Reform has admitted its structure might not be sustainable in the long-term - something that could change after this year’s election.

Just one of many sources: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 56355.html

[Jobbo]

That's pretty common knowledge. Any donation to Reform is simply a payment to a company. But of more relevance is that if you set up a political party in this way it is effectively in Farage's full control so he could easily merge it with another party or whatever. I don't know if he has any ambition to be Prime Minister but if Reform get as many ex-Tory votes as he hopes, he could feasibly achieve a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party and become their leader.

[mik]

Don’t laugh. It’s possible.

<shudders>

Trump is proof that anything is indeed possible.

[Swervin_Mervin]

That's pretty common knowledge. Any donation to Reform is simply a payment to a company. But of more relevance is that if you set up a political party in this way it is effectively in Farage's full control so he could easily merge it with another party or whatever. I don't know if he has any ambition to be Prime Minister but if Reform get as many ex-Tory votes as he hopes, he could feasibly achieve a reverse takeover of the Conservative Party and become their leader.

He's pretty much outlined that's exactly what he's looking to achieve, citing the history of the conservatives in Canada getting destroyed in the 90s and ultimately taken over by an upstart Reform-like party.

I have no desire to see him in power at all, but part of me does think that for the benefit of the UK in the long term, the 2 largest parties do need destroying/reconstructing.

[Rich B]

If you haven't seen it already, this one way particularly spot on.

Jonathan Pie Reform election special

[Beany]

"Liz Truss in human form" is possibly one of the finest insults I've heard in a while.

[mik]

"Liz Truss in human form" is possibly one of the finest insults I've heard in a while.

I didn't read this before I'd watched - had a glol at exactly that moment

[Rich B]

Totally did the same! I don't think they've really taken on board just how much damage Liz Truss did in her short run. Theres the obvious damage she did to the economy, but the fact any party would vote to put her as their leader surely sealed their fate. Rishi was never really going to fix that.

[Beany]

That's what happens when you stop being a political party and start being a populist cult of personality.

That they - or anyone - took Johnson seriously as a politician was the beginning of the end.

[Rich B]

2019 Boris I can kind of understand - The whole country was charmed by his enthusiasm. But once everyone had found out he was a crook, they needed someone great to get themselves out of the corrupt mess they'd made.

Oooh, Liz Truss!!!

[dinny_g]

just how much damage Liz Truss did in her short run.

Personally speaking, she cost me an extra £420 per month on my mortgage...

On the reform thing, I have no doubt that the Conservative Party will win far fewer seats this time out compared to previous elections but I do think the hyperbole in the more left leaning media is a little wishful thinking.

"This will decimate the party"

"It could very likely spell the end of the conservative party"

No it won't.

Labour will win a healthy majority, conservatives will settle into opposition while in the background, trying to find a new dynamic leader who can lead the party going forward. New Labour won multiple GE's and then the Conservatives did. It's the natural cycle.

Nothing is going to fundamentally change after this election, other than the government

[GG.]

just how much damage Liz Truss did in her short run.

Personally speaking, she cost me an extra £420 per month on my mortgage...

I have been meaning to bring this up - she didn't. Central Bank rates have been elevated around the world to deal with inflation fueled by a number of factors such as excess liquidity from money printing during Covid and the war in Ukraine.

The Fed rate is the same as the BoE Bank Rate and the ECB is 75bps inside that on account of differences between the Euro are and UK/US economies/monetary policy. Essentially all have gone from hovering around zero to c.5%.

Truss did cause a short term crisis in the reduction in yields on central bank bonds (guilts) which in turn triggered liquidity issues with pension funds but within 12 months their liquidity exceeded the level at the point prior to the 'mini-budget'.

Truss had the correct idea of what to do with tax directionally, but in conjunction with Kwarteng committed the cardinal sin of releasing plans that were not fiscally neutral and would therefore mean more issuance of government debt (bonds therefore worth less as diluted by new issuances, yields fall - see para above).

I was pretty suprised that the tories have not challenged that the interest rate changes are a global macro driven thing, not related (save for Sunak's largesse during covid) to their policies. I think the truth is it would just go over most people's heads and the strategy seems to be that people can only process very simple messages.

[ZedLeg]

Regardless of how much damage her budget did, Liz Truss is a crank that should never have been allowed near the office

[Swervin_Mervin]

I don't think that would go over most people's heads - there's a way of driving that message in a simple way. I think they're just a) fucking hopeless and utterly detached from reality and b) were guilty of wanting to appear to be the ones that bring stability to the madness caused by Truss. Pointing out that Truss wasn't responsible for the inflation hikes would've rather undermined that, and they wouldn't have been able to argue about what she did impact as that almost certainly would go over most peoples' heads!

Possibly much of it comes back to the fact that there isn't any reasonable political discourse anymore - everything has to be distilled into a 3 or 4 word headline grabber.

[dinny_g]

just how much damage Liz Truss did in her short run.

Personally speaking, she cost me an extra £420 per month on my mortgage...

I have been meaning to bring this up - she didn't. Central Bank rates have been elevated around the world to deal with inflation fueled by a number of factors such as excess liquidity from money printing during Covid and the war in Ukraine.

The Fed rate is the same as the BoE Bank Rate and the ECB is 75bps inside that on account of differences between the Euro are and UK/US economies/monetary policy. Essentially all have gone from hovering around zero to c.5%.

Truss did cause a short term crisis in the reduction in yields on central bank bonds (guilts) which in turn triggered liquidity issues with pension funds but within 12 months their liquidity exceeded the level at the point prior to the 'mini-budget'.

Truss had the correct idea of what to do with tax directionally, but in conjunction with Kwarteng committed the cardinal sin of releasing plans that were not fiscally neutral and would therefore mean more issuance of government debt (bonds therefore worth less as diluted by new issuances, yields fall - see para above).

I was pretty suprised that the tories have not challenged that the interest rate changes are a global macro driven thing, not related (save for Sunak's largesse during covid) to their policies. I think the truth is it would just go over most people's heads and the strategy seems to be that people can only process very simple messages.

I don’t have the evidence to hand but I was tracking mortgage offers in the lead up to September 22 and I was expecting an increase of between £100 to £150. By October 22 it was £450 which hadn’t changed by Sept 23 when we re-signed. And still hasn’t changed significantly since.

It was frustrating as we planned to reduce our term by 2 years so we were budgeting a big increase anyway but now we’re paying that for the same term. So set our plans back 2 years.

Now it may just be a coincidence but I’m still blaming Truss

[Rich B]

Funny how the interest rates going up isn't the governments fault, but when they come down it's because of them...

[GG.]

I don't think that would go over most people's heads - there's a way of driving that message in a simple way. I think they're just a) fucking hopeless and utterly detached from reality and b) were guilty of wanting to appear to be the ones that bring stability to the madness caused by Truss. Pointing out that Truss wasn't responsible for the inflation hikes would've rather undermined that, and they wouldn't have been able to argue about what she did impact as that almost certainly would go over most peoples' heads!

Possibly much of it comes back to the fact that there isn't any reasonable political discourse anymore - everything has to be distilled into a 3 or 4 word headline grabber.

Yes - I agree. I think the damage that it does having people believe that was as a result of her actions is much more harmful to the Conservatives than taking the credit for reversing it... particularly because they haven't! Certain elements of inflation are very stick and rates haven't moved downwards!