Ukraine

[Sundayjumper]

It's not just cars, and it's not just stuff from the UK, the same pattern has been pointed out across all kinds of manufacturing, all over Europe & RoW.

Sanctions are nigh impossible to enforce 100% - once a (in this case) car has been delivered to a customer they're free to do whatever they like with it. With the right connections & enough money to pay off the people involved I imagine it becomes pretty easy to move a new car from Azerbaijan and register it in Russia.

The point of sanctions is to make the imports increasingly difficult & expensive. You could place secondary sanctions on Azerbaijan as a next step. I know the numbers look convincing but you'd need some solid proof that that's what's really happening. And it's not as if either of those countries is going to fall over themselves helping. It'll happen eventually though.

Cars are a bit trivial here - as dinny points out, UK industry is making money, and it's not as if a Rolls Royce going to kill many Ukrainian civilians.

Far more important is the high-tech industrial equipment. Making it harder / slower / more expensive to get that to Russian companies building equipment for the military is very important. That Sky article only touches on that right at the end. Cars much more sexy I guess.

[Gavster]

Did anyone see the Tucker Carlson in Russia videos? Those videos made it look like everything's rosy inside the country.

[DaveE]

Did anyone see the Tucker Carlson in Russia videos? Those videos made it look like everything's rosy inside the country.

Almost like it was propaganda?

[Mito Man]

It seemed like Tucker was genuinely an idiot. I’ve only seen clips but things like him being mind blown at shopping trolleys being operated by inserting a coin or the cost of food being so much less and then comparing it to American prices whilst not understanding that the average wage in Russia is $500 a month so in reality it’s no different.
How fucking dense is that man?

[Gavster]

Did anyone see the Tucker Carlson in Russia videos? Those videos made it look like everything's rosy inside the country.

Almost like it was propaganda?

It aligns with what I've heard about my ex's family who live in Russia

[Sundayjumper]

The US House of Representatives has FINALLY voted and have passed:

Seizing Russian assets

Sending $61bn of aid to Ukraine

[RobYob]

Indeed, Finally! Considering it's estimated more than 60% of that finding is being rolled.into broadband capability upgrades for US manufacturing the nutters held it up for a depressing amount of time.

Last week's Perun video was about US defense industry rebuilding.

[Mito Man]

Better late than never but it’s almost like they want Russia to be tied up in a never ending war. As soon as Ukraine makes some inroads, the aid slows, when they really get in trouble things get into gear.

[jamcg]

[Zonda_]

Putin ain’t gonna be happy about this!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cl442r ... ium=social

[Matty]

So hows this all going to play out over the next 12-24 months? Ukraine is losing, with Russia clearly happy to keep throwing men at the meatgrinder and no doubt Ukraine are going to run out before them. Weapons are great, until you've barely got anyone left to hold them.

A truce and let Russia have what they hold?
Russian coup once they get tired of losing all their sons/husbands?
Perpetual war while Russia very slowly make more ground?
Whopsie-daisy accidental hit on NATO troops, it all kicks off and I should start stockpiling toilet paper?

[duncs500]

I suspect it'll be a case of option 3 and the hope that Putin pops it before everyone is dead.

[RobYob]

Alternative option that the vast but uncoordinated West finally begin delivering what the manufacturing base is capable of and the tide turns against Russia.

Russia is some cases (artillery) have already burned through 80% of the enormous arsenal inherited from the USSR and will be restricted to what can be produced.

No more Ukraine shell hunger, gloves off for strikes in Russia and maybe enough new air power to push them back. I certainly hope so.

[Matty]

News seems to suggest that while it was reported they were running out and using old weapons and tech 6 months back, they've now retooled and are producing lots of their own ammunition and theirs no shortage (on volume, but tech level is assumedly low)

The issue is their economy is on full war footing and production, and everything else is suffering due to sanctions...so they wonder if there will soon be mass civil unrest.

[Mito Man]

Did Ukraine ever get any Western fighter jets?

I think we're in the perpetual war stage on purpose. Keep Ukraine going with the minimum and keep Russia busy.

[Beany]

Still a sore point. Training is slow going it appears.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/1 ... g-00163205

[Swervin_Mervin]

Could all hang on Crimea. That seems to be the weak spot for Russia and the release to hit targets in Russia could open up the opportunity to take out the remaining supply links.

Oh and Russia seems to be switching to putting other countries' men into the meat grinder now, because they've run out of prisoners and sending more of their youth might not go down too well with the populace.

[Simon]

Did Ukraine ever get any Western fighter jets?

I think we're in the perpetual war stage on purpose. Keep Ukraine going with the minimum and keep Russia busy.

I think part of this US signed deal was the commitment to start passing over F16s..

[Sundayjumper]

Yes, apparently squadrons of F16s. Squadrons. Plural. Timescale though...

Also sanctions are finally starting to properly bite. The Moscow Exchange can no longer deal in Dollars or Euros. The G7 has agreed to use $50bn of interest from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. All of that should have happened at least a year ago but here we are. It's happening now.

[Matty]

Might be one for @Beany



Amusingly itself, another comment mentioned

"Does this have anything to do with why the Russians panic called the Americans?"
Referring to this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/us/p ... -plot.html (paywalled)

Some wondered if the Ukrainian's were planning to wipe the Russian banking records, and even the Russian's had to call their bigger boys to and ask the other kids to stop picking on them.

Bit of historical conext someone else quoted:
"Prior to the invasion of Iraq, there was a proposed idea of deleting Iraq’s banking records in order to spiral the country into chaos. While it would have almost certainly worked, the plan was abandoned because fucking with the banking sector anywhere will have unpredictable downstream effects.

If Ukraine was planning on doing something similar, the US might have rightfully been fearful of the damage it could do to the global economy.

Obviously the risk/reward calculation is different when you posses the military might to destroy one of the worlds largest militaries in a matter of days vs. when you’re fighting off a multi year long siege that poses an existential crisis.