Ukraine

[Broccers]

I was wondering - are there no other conflicts in the world at the moment?

I was wondering - it's Friday, have you been in the pub all day again

Were you really wondering?

Having made a massive effort to not watch any news in a while I wouldn't know the answer to my question.

[Beany]

Interesting thread from Kamil Galeev on the risks of full mobilisation - not to Ukraine, but to Russia. Namely, Revolution.

Give people who don't want to fight a war guns, and you run the risk of them turning on you.

Worth setting aside ten minutes to go through.

[Beany]

Although the footage is from a previous year, apparently no aircraft - at all - in today's parade.

There was a parade of 11,000 troops though. You know, less than half those who have died so far.

[Beany]

Just because i enjoyed it.

[Swervin_Mervin]

Top trolling again

[nuttinnew]

[Swervin_Mervin]

Flippin' 'eck!

[Beany]

Yeah, I saw that. Solid after action reports are excellent PR/Propaganda/choose your own adventure

That is a good one.

Various russians claiming that the loss of - allegedly - at least one battalion in that action - are quite funny. Killing an alleged 1000 people and losing over 100 mechanical assets as a feint isn't really much of a feint.

[Sundayjumper]

I will get a coffee & read through that. On a lighter note:

[Mito Man]

At least the bridge crossing makes sense now. Originally I read that one battalion got blown up attempting to cross then then next day another battalion made the exact same mistake. Turns out it was just the same troops trying return.

This war is fascinating in terms of future warfare though. Seems like anything land based is a sitting duck with hundreds of drones all around, then it’s just down to out artillery-ing the enemy by having longer range.

[Sundayjumper]

River unit didn’t see RU units, but was able to hear motor boats and report it immediately

That bit at least is not hi-tech in the slightest - using sound.

Recon units on the ground (prob with the help of lightweight drones, but still, they're out there and close enough to hear the boats starting up), having the skill to predict EXACTLY what the Russians are about to do, getting the artillery on standby and then pummelling them as soon as they're on the water and vulnerable. Finish it off with some precision air support. A brilliantly elegant piece of tactical work and the Russians walked straight into it.

[Beany]

At least the bridge crossing makes sense now. Originally I read that one battalion got blown up attempting to cross then then next day another battalion made the exact same mistake. Turns out it was just the same troops trying return.

This war is fascinating in terms of future warfare though. Seems like anything land based is a sitting duck with hundreds of drones all around, then it’s just down to out artillery-ing the enemy by having longer range.

Theoretically, you can get laser guided artillery, and you can mount fairly powerful lasers to drones on stabilized gimbals.

Launch drone 1km from front line.

Paint a target.

30km away, artillery gets fired.

Twenty seconds later, Bad Things Occur where within feet of where the drones laser paint is.

And even if you lose £5k of comparatively heavy lift octocopter in the aftermath, the event had just lost potentially tens of millions of materiel and troops.


Ukraine now have near 100 m777 howitzers from the US alone.... And those 155mm shells support laser guidance.

[Sundayjumper]

I just went back and dug out this post I made early on:

Re: ATMs and a run on Russian banks, this fits with what I've been thinking in the last 24h, that this will be ended internally, by popular protest and unrest at home and a tipping point within the army when enough Russian troops just say "no".

I was chatting today to my friend who's a history & politics teacher, and whose knowledge of such things is vast, and he agrees that a military coup is looking increasingly likely. Russian senior officers have shown plenty of disregard for the lives of their troops but somewhere in the chain of command there's going to be some common sense and an appreciation that having *some* army left at the end of this is going to be a lot better than having *no* army left.

Putin - the person - is never going to back down. A sufficiently strong military uprising can put him behind bars* and (in effect) say "really sorry, it wasn't our idea, we're going home now". It would allow them to retain a tiny scrap of credibility. That genuinely seems like the best outcome right now.


* execution would be too good for him. Keep him alive as long as possible so he sees what unfolds after he's removed from power. That would be his own personal hell.

[Swervin_Mervin]

FSB vs GRU could be where it starts. Though the potential to hail him as our great leader taken before his time is immense - Western powers strongly suspect he's fairly ill so the Russians could use that in a "he fought a terrible personal health battle in the midst of this western oppression, but utlimately lost his fight to ill health."

[V8Granite]

People are thinking too cleverly about the reason the invasion isn’t working.

Since the ability of destroying tanks was perfected with rocket propelled grenades, the single thing you never do with a tank is just drive it into unknown territory. You clear the way with infantry, from what I’ve seen they are doing nothing at all to clear the way.

Dave!

[Sundayjumper]

People are thinking too cleverly about the reason the invasion isn’t working.

Since the ability of destroying tanks was perfected with rocket propelled grenades, the single thing you never do with a tank is just drive it into unknown territory. You clear the way with infantry, from what I’ve seen they are doing nothing at all to clear the way.

Dave!

I realise you have more experience than I do, but isn’t the “infantry first” approach exactly what they did before tanks were invented and led directly to inventing armoured vehicles & tanks in the first place ? I’m thinking WW1.

Apart from killing unarmed civilians, Russian infantry has proved to be useless at everything so far.

[V8Granite]

I was only an army cadet and keen army mad youngster. I do know the colour of the boathouse at ferry meadows though.

WW2 only really had anti-tank artillery weapons or other tanks. Since being able to kill tanks with a shoulder mounted weapon you can’t just rock up and get blasting with your MBT.

Armoured personnel carriers will always get rid of their personnel when engaged as they are bullet and rocket magnets. Also you have a squad or section inside which can be more use firing back.

The idea of driving tanks down a main road or unprotected in towns is ridiculous.

Dave!

[Beany]

Well, you think you could mount an ATGM/MANPAD to one of these?



Apparently ~60mph, ~60-90mile range.

Being used for fast and silent (compared to a two stroke dirt bike) scouting, artillery spotting/targeting, sniping, small hit and run operations etc.

[Beany]

So Ukraine wins Eurovision, and there's an interesting game to play on Twitter

See which accounts are clearly Russian bots and paid sockpuppets!

It's very easy - it's the ones who are, quite seriously, claiming that Eurovision is rigged, it's a side effect of the money laundering Ukraine does, it's all NATO propaganda to push for thier war with Russia etc

You know, as opposed to what Eurovision has been for over thirty years, a thinly veiled, light hearted, somewhat catty popularity contest that has a bit of fun music acts thrown in. It's high budget, European aligned pantomime where people get to have a cheeky vote on who they think is cool and who they think sucks in the Eurosphere at the moment.

Actual Americans know this. Actual Russians even know this. Bots don't, and paid sock puppets can't admit it or they go off the provided narrative/script.

Been a fun morning of doom scrolling through the hellscape of Twitter this morning

[Sundayjumper]

I’m doing another trip on 9th June.

Edit - no I'm not, I'd totally forgotten that my passport went through the wash after the last trip and is now illegible. Passport website says no appointments are available for the expedited service and the regular renewal takes ten weeks. Crap.