Coronavirus

[Swervin_Mervin]

The problem is that that hasn't been tested. It's guesswork.

AIUI thats just the pfizer one that hasn't been tested - the AZ one they know resulted in no hospitalisations after 1 dose. But also AIUI they are intending to take this approach with both vaccines. Which is clearly utterly mental.

Doesnt seem to be getting much traction in the main news though

[Marv]

Interesting. Do you know what the placebo was? Have you grown a third arm or anything weird?

Think they used a meningitis vaccine as the placebo control on the AZ/Oxford trial.

[Explosive Newt]

Interesting. Do you know what the placebo was? Have you grown a third arm or anything weird?

Think they used a meningitis vaccine as the placebo control on the AZ/Oxford trial.

Yeah, it was the MenC vaccine. I felt miserable for 24 hours; now that a few of my friends have been unblinded, I can confirm that the Oxford vaccine is much much milder on side effects!

[Explosive Newt]

The vaccine delay thing is contentious to say the least but I think I have seen enough evidence to be convinced.

1. Because of the way the Oxford trial was designed then redesigned, there is data showing that a longer duration is just as efficacious. Originally, it was set up as a single dose study before they realised a booster would most likely help and half the early cohort were given a booster at around the 8-12 week mark. From these guys we have actually proven that the antibody response seems stronger the longer you wait.

2. In fact, that is true of all the other vaccines out there. Most of the data points towards vaccines that need boosters having greater efficacy if boosted at 8-12 weeks. At 3 weeks, the B-cell (subset of white blood cells which produce antibodies) response to the first dose is not yet complete: i.e. they are still being produced and you haven’t reached peak numbers yet. You maximise the response by stimulating the maximal number of cells.

3. There is an epidemiological argument for having twice as many people with 80% immunity rather than a cohort with 95%.

The big bottleneck is going to be recruiting enough vaccinators, I fear.

[Marv]

The vaccine delay thing is contentious to say the least but I think I have seen enough evidence to be convinced.

1. Because of the way the Oxford trial was designed then redesigned, there is data showing that a longer duration is just as efficacious. Originally, it was set up as a single dose study before they realised a booster would most likely help and half the early cohort were given a booster at around the 8-12 week mark. From these guys we have actually proven that the antibody response seems stronger the longer you wait.

2. In fact, that is true of all the other vaccines out there. Most of the data points towards vaccines that need boosters having greater efficacy if boosted at 8-12 weeks. At 3 weeks, the B-cell (subset of white blood cells which produce antibodies) response to the first dose is not yet complete: i.e. they are still being produced and you haven’t reached peak numbers yet. You maximise the response by stimulating the maximal number of cells.

3. There is an epidemiological argument for having twice as many people with 80% immunity rather than a cohort with 95%.

The big bottleneck is going to be recruiting enough vaccinators, I fear.

Wonder if the first dose will be a full dose, or a half dose?...as the effectiveness of the AZ/Oxford vaccine was greater if the first dose was a half dose, right?

Unless they've tweaked the vaccine since then?

[duncs500]

@Marv could be wrong, but I believe it's the second dose (booster) that they've been tinkering with the quantity of.

Back to work today, I've been off for a month, but there has definitely been a noticeable jump in reported cases/quarantine around work in and around the Christmas break. That new strain must be kicking in, wouldn't be surprised if we have a full blown outbreak in a week or two.

[Explosive Newt]

Wonder if the first dose will be a full dose, or a half dose?...as the effectiveness of the AZ/Oxford vaccine was greater if the first dose was a half dose, right?

Unless they've tweaked the vaccine since then?

It's full/full that they have licenced.

The more you look at the Oxford trials, the more it tests your faith in them. Lots of chopping and changing as things went along (e.g. messing with doses, boosters and intervals) which you guess comes from not having got the planning in up front.

[duncs500]

The only thing I wondered was how easy it actually is to calculate doses? I thought maybe with something new there might be some sort of trial and error to get the optimal dose anyway.

I don't know, perhaps dosage is a simple calculation, but this virus business looks awfully complex to me.

[Ascender]

The vaccine delay thing is contentious to say the least but I think I have seen enough evidence to be convinced.

1. Because of the way the Oxford trial was designed then redesigned, there is data showing that a longer duration is just as efficacious. Originally, it was set up as a single dose study before they realised a booster would most likely help and half the early cohort were given a booster at around the 8-12 week mark. From these guys we have actually proven that the antibody response seems stronger the longer you wait.

2. In fact, that is true of all the other vaccines out there. Most of the data points towards vaccines that need boosters having greater efficacy if boosted at 8-12 weeks. At 3 weeks, the B-cell (subset of white blood cells which produce antibodies) response to the first dose is not yet complete: i.e. they are still being produced and you haven’t reached peak numbers yet. You maximise the response by stimulating the maximal number of cells.

3. There is an epidemiological argument for having twice as many people with 80% immunity rather than a cohort with 95%.

The big bottleneck is going to be recruiting enough vaccinators, I fear.

That's really interesting to read and is reassuring as there's so much noise out there.

I did wonder about vaccinators and how much of an "all hands to the pump" it would be - i.e. army, retired NHS staff, medical & nurse students etc? I'm sure I saw some vets offering yesterday!

[McSwede]

Back to work today, I've been off for a month, but there has definitely been a noticeable jump in reported cases/quarantine around work in and around the Christmas break. That new strain must be kicking in, wouldn't be surprised if we have a full blown outbreak in a week or two.

I'm seeing similar things. Lots of cases from Xmas family get togethers

[Ascender]

I was going to say that in one of the satellite teams in South England, 10 members, 4 have had it and one of their partners is in hospital with it.

[integrale_evo]

We were all given tests before Christmas to do the day before we came back for exactly that reason.

Mine was negative so guess I’ve got to go in

Not that I’ve actually been in contact with anyone Other than our household, and for the last 12 days anyway.

[Mito Man]

Lots of people hacking up their lungs outside today

[Brannen]

I noticed that too whilst out riding my bike on Saturday.. Grim. Not sure why you'd go out like that!

The seafront was completely rammed as well, people queuing for coffees etc. Seemed to be groups of people together, but hard to tell what's a household (I'm guessing some probably weren't).

I think people have given up listening to the rules. I've been in tier 4 since it was introduced in mid December. I've got no idea how the numbers are getting higher and higher when we're virtually locked down here!

[mik]

[Rich B]

[Ascender]

Full lockdown, how I've missed you. Welcome back my old friend.

[Mito Man]

Wonder how long before Boris follows. I’d rather he got on and gave us a date instead of saying “in due course” all the time.

[duncs500]

Wonder how long before Boris follows. I’d rather he got on and gave us a date instead of saying “in due course” all the time.

... but then he can't do it without any warning or time for anyone to prepare. He likes the theatre of "from midnight tonight".

[Mito Man]

Wonder how long before Boris follows. I’d rather he got on and gave us a date instead of saying “in due course” all the time.

... but then he can't do it without any warning or time for anyone to prepare. He likes the theatre of "from midnight tonight".

Yes we need a 72 hour window of opportunity to have a final massive gathering and party!