OV9

Might as well keep traditions going!

I love you guys

No surprise on the Labour win but local shock - Bracknell has returned its first ever Labour MP. Facilitated by Reform splitting the vote. Probably would have stayed Conservative otherwise.


https://www.bracknell-forest.gov.uk/ele ... -elections

No doubt it'll still be impossible to get a doctor's appointment on Monday morning. Bloody labour, I knew things wouldn't change.

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:21 am No surprise on the Labour win but local shock - Bracknell has returned its first ever Labour MP. Facilitated by Reform splitting the vote. Probably would have stayed Conservative otherwise.


https://www.bracknell-forest.gov.uk/ele ... -elections

That’s not just Bracknell. A lot of seats the Tories seem to have fallen by haemorrhaging votes to Reform rather than Labour gaining them.

Simon wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:25 am No doubt it'll still be impossible to get a doctor's appointment on Monday morning. Bloody labour, I knew things wouldn't change.

The weather has turned shit too. Anyone else notice that ? It can’t be a coincidence.

I just had a thought. Has anyone paraphrased the Simpsons on this ?

There’s three ways to do things. The Conservative way, the Labour way, and the Reform way!

Isn’t that the Conservative way?

Yeah, but losing faster.

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:50 am

Simon wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:25 am No doubt it'll still be impossible to get a doctor's appointment on Monday morning. Bloody labour, I knew things wouldn't change.

The weather has turned shit too. Anyone else notice that ? It can’t be a coincidence.

That's what happens when you vote in COMMUNISTS who will turn us into VENEZUELA, etc.

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:50 am

Simon wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:25 am No doubt it'll still be impossible to get a doctor's appointment on Monday morning. Bloody labour, I knew things wouldn't change.

The weather has turned shit too. Anyone else notice that ? It can’t be a coincidence.

the weather is pretty much identical to how it was at the beginning of the process. I expect Starmer will be bright enough to get an umbrella though.

Which parties will be calling for proportional representation now? Reform and the Tories?

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:21 am No surprise on the Labour win but local shock - Bracknell has returned its first ever Labour MP. Facilitated by Reform splitting the vote. Probably would have stayed Conservative otherwise.


https://www.bracknell-forest.gov.uk/ele ... -elections

Tewkesbury has existed as a consituency since 1997 like Bracknell, and has returned its first ever non-Tory though it's a Lib Dem win. A night of firsts.

Given their hammering of how referendums shouldn't be overturned, not matter how fucking stupid they are, I can't see that being a clever move for either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Unit ... referendum

(yeah, it was the 'wrong kind' of PR, but Brexit was the 'wrong kind' of referendum, not requiring a major, clear win, and that's not stopped them tubthumping on that for the last eight years)

Jobbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:08 am

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:21 am No surprise on the Labour win but local shock - Bracknell has returned its first ever Labour MP. Facilitated by Reform splitting the vote. Probably would have stayed Conservative otherwise.


https://www.bracknell-forest.gov.uk/ele ... -elections

Tewkesbury has existed as a consituency since 1997 like Bracknell, and has returned its first ever non-Tory though it's a Lib Dem win. A night of firsts.

Cons lost Altrincham and Sale West which I think they've held since the Magna Carta. I thought they'd lose it to the Lib Dems who do very well in the local elections, but no, it went Lab. Only just though - 20.8k to 16.6k and the Reform vote was 4.9k. So Lab scraped it in reality. The bulk of the swing went to Reform and the Greens. Lib Dems actually lost some of the share which surprised me hugely.

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

Jobbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:08 am

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:21 am No surprise on the Labour win but local shock - Bracknell has returned its first ever Labour MP. Facilitated by Reform splitting the vote. Probably would have stayed Conservative otherwise.


https://www.bracknell-forest.gov.uk/ele ... -elections

Tewkesbury has existed as a consituency since 1997 like Bracknell, and has returned its first ever non-Tory though it's a Lib Dem win. A night of firsts.

Cons lost Altrincham and Sale West which I think they've held since the Magna Carta. I thought they'd lose it to the Lib Dems who do very well in the local elections, but no, it went Lab. Only just thought - 20.8k to 16.6k and the Reform vote was 4.9k. So Lab scraped it in reality. The bulk of the swing went to Reform and the Greens. Lib Dems actually lost some of the share which surprised me hugely.

20.8k v 16.6k isn't particularly close, there's no way anyone can just declare that all reform votes came from Tory voters!

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:08 am

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

Jobbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:08 am

Tewkesbury has existed as a consituency since 1997 like Bracknell, and has returned its first ever non-Tory though it's a Lib Dem win. A night of firsts.

Cons lost Altrincham and Sale West which I think they've held since the Magna Carta. I thought they'd lose it to the Lib Dems who do very well in the local elections, but no, it went Lab. Only just thought - 20.8k to 16.6k and the Reform vote was 4.9k. So Lab scraped it in reality. The bulk of the swing went to Reform and the Greens. Lib Dems actually lost some of the share which surprised me hugely.

20.8k v 16.6k isn't particularly close, there's no way anyone can just declare that all reform votes came from Tory voters!

Round here - yes they absolutely did.

Cons -15.7%, Lab +3.6%, Reform +9.6%, LD -1.8%, Greens +4.3% and Workers Party +1.2%

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:14 am

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:08 am

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:04 am

Cons lost Altrincham and Sale West which I think they've held since the Magna Carta. I thought they'd lose it to the Lib Dems who do very well in the local elections, but no, it went Lab. Only just thought - 20.8k to 16.6k and the Reform vote was 4.9k. So Lab scraped it in reality. The bulk of the swing went to Reform and the Greens. Lib Dems actually lost some of the share which surprised me hugely.

20.8k v 16.6k isn't particularly close, there's no way anyone can just declare that all reform votes came from Tory voters!

Round here - yes they absolutely did.

Cons -15.7%, Lab +3.6%, Reform +9.6%, LD -1.8%, Greens +4.3% and Workers Party +1.2%

A 4,200 majority is pretty good - particularly in a seat which has never returned a Labour candidate, and with 40.4% share of the vote which on paper is a lot higher than in plenty of constituencies (and improved on their previous highest share in 2017, let alone 2019). Graham Brady standing down won't have helped the Tories. The Labour candidate having only been selected on 30 May means he hasn't even had 6 weeks of campaigning. It's a drubbing.

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:08 am ...there's no way anyone can just declare that all reform votes came from Tory voters!

Highly likely though. Reform voters aren't lefties just doing it for the lolz. I'll have a look later, there's probably some data on it.

FWIW my mate up North, his constituency of Morecambe and Lunesdale presented a similar result - Labour win but Conservative + Reform combined would have clinched it.

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/new ... on-4691846

Plenty of evidence that people actively didn't vote for Labour due to their stance on Israel/Palestine. I think Reform would have been a beneficiary of that, as well as Green and Lib Dems.

When England lose tomorrow, that will be Southgate and Starmer out of a job!