OV9

Choose

I'll take the guaranteed option.

Can I have a penny which doubles in value every day for a month?

What's the starting value of your special penny?

RIP Which? Magazine, which is what I assume you're referring to as you even when to the extent of including the question mark.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Which%3F

DeskJockey wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:50 pm What's the starting value of your special penny?

1 pence.

Mito Man wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:52 pm

DeskJockey wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:50 pm What's the starting value of your special penny?

1 pence.

So just under £2.7m even in February in a non-leap year. Probably worth getting the full £21.47m by taking it in a 31 day month. Not quite the question mik was asking.

Purely on statistical analysis, there's an obvious reason to go for the second option in mik's poll: the expected winnings are £5m. But the chance of getting nothing means I'd obviously take the £1m guaranteed. It's a nice sum and the considerations in this sort of gamble are different to just maximising the statistical outcome.

Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it. Assuming you win the £10m, everything changes, and it could go both ways in terms of happiness IMO.

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:59 am Assuming you win the £10m, everything changes, and it could go both ways in terms of happiness IMO.

Yes, that's why I only do the Euromillions when it's well over £100m. If you're going to change your life, do it big time.

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:59 am Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it.

This.

£100k or a 50/50 on £1m is a more difficult question..

240PP wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:32 pm

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:59 am Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it.

This.

£100k or a 50/50 on £1m is a more difficult question..

Agreed. I'm not sure what I'd choose! Probably still the £100k, I'm not much of a gambler.

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:20 pm

240PP wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:32 pm

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:59 am Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it.

This.

£100k or a 50/50 on £1m is a more difficult question..

Agreed. I'm not sure what I'd choose! Probably still the £100k, I'm not much of a gambler.

I'll need to start a new thread for you Duncs with options of £100 vs a 50/50 on £1000.

mik wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:33 pm

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:20 pm

240PP wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:32 pm

This.

£100k or a 50/50 on £1m is a more difficult question..

Agreed. I'm not sure what I'd choose! Probably still the £100k, I'm not much of a gambler.

I'll need to start a new thread for you Duncs with options of £100 vs a 50/50 on £1000.

No, I'd gamble for £100k vs a guaranteed £10k. But £100k would take a lovely chunk out of the mortgage! I must just not be as rich as you lot.

When do I get my £million @mik ?

240PP wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 12:32 pm

duncs500 wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:59 am Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it.

This.

£100k or a 50/50 on £1m is a more difficult question..

£100k would pay my mortgage off and a huge boost to my pension, not worth the gamble for me.

Looks like I'm one of two who would take the coin toss. You're looking at the difference between a nice house, vs never working again and your children never having to work either, if invested properly. That's worth a shot for me.

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:33 pm When do I get my £million @mik ?

I have a bottle waiting for you here - just pop over dude.

Wow. The results of the poll fly in the face of the widely accepted theory that people are risk-loving on potential gains, but risk-averse on potential losses. And not just a little bit either!

Personally, I'd go for the coin flip every time. Average expected outcome of £5m vs £1m seems a no-brainer to me

ETA - If anyone's actually interested, here's the famous prospect theory paper from Kahneman (who wrote "Thinking Fast and Slow") and Tversky .
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185

Simon wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:26 pm Looks like I'm one of two who would take the coin toss. You're looking at the difference between a nice house, vs never working again and your children never having to work either, if invested properly. That's worth a shot for me.

Fuck that - my child can work and learn the value of £

mik wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 5:30 pm

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:33 pm When do I get my £million @mik ?

I have a bottle waiting for you here - just pop over dude.

Bloody gipped