Ukraine

[Mito Man]

And just like that they’ve all negotiated something? Wtf.

[Explosive Newt]

My understanding is
1. Wagner getting too big for their boots (open conflict with Russian regulars etc)
2. Order is given to absorb Wagner into MOD
3. Wagner marches on Moscow in protest
4. MOD/Putin climb down from this position and Wagner stops march.

So… Putin weakened (probably good) and partisan neonazi mercenary force strengthened (definitely bad). Overall situation destabilised.

Outside chance this is a bit of sleight of hand to make Ukraine over-commit forces but I doubt they would do this at the expense of making Putin look bad.

[duncs500]

One thing is for sure, Prigozhin will be safer on the front line now than he will be stood next to a hotel window!

[Sundayjumper]

FFS, life, I post something slightly more thoughtful than my usual "I saw this on Twitter LOL" and you move the bloody goal posts !

There is absolutely no way this is the end of the Putin / Prigozhin story though. Agreeing a ceasefire then reorganising and attacking again is a totally Russian thing to do. Question is - which one thinks they're kidding the other one ?

[Sundayjumper]

Normal service resumed.

[Beany]

There is absolutely no way this is the end of the Putin / Prigozhin story though. Agreeing a ceasefire then reorganising and attacking again is a totally Russian thing to do. Question is - which one thinks they're kidding the other one ?

I'm sure the literal, documented war criminals are totally trustworthy.

[Sundayjumper]

I'm sure the literal, documented war criminals are totally trustworthy.

Narrow it down a bit here - are you talking about Russia or Wagner ?

[Beany]

Russia try to spin their war crimes off on someone else (like Ukraine).

Wagner like to film themselves beheading or sledge hammering the heads of their PoWs and disseminate it on the internet to intimidate their enemies.

But yeah, I could have been clearer about that

[Sundayjumper]

A lot of solid common sense here:

[IanF]

[Sundayjumper]

Interesting twist - Wagner claim to have taken down a satellite internet service used by the Russian MOD.

[Beany]

Ukraine's social media team being consistently on point.

[RobYob]

It was very odd to hear of Russian civilian queues to get IN to Crimea last week. They really must have absolutely no idea what's going on.

Judging by the way the Russians dumped a load of rocket ammunition in the middle of a city (Makiivka) and the resulting random distribution of said rockets around the city after the Ukrainian's hit it yesterday you'd surely prefer to Holiday somewhere a bit less explosive.

[Sundayjumper]

Russian submarine commander shot dead while out on a run (inside Russia, over 100 miles from the border). He had a regular route and would post it on Strava. One recent run was liked by an account in the name Kyrylo Budanov, who is Ukraine's Intelligence Chief.

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility but said in a statement:

“On July 10, he jogged in the Krasnodar Park of Culture and Recreation named after the 30th anniversary of victory."

“Around six in the morning, seven shots were fired at him from a Makarov pistol. As a result of gunshot wounds, Rzytsky died on the spot.”

“Due to heavy rain, the park was deserted, so there are no witnesses who could provide details or identify the attacker.”

That is remarkably detailed info coming from someone that wasn't involved in any way

[nuttinnew]

Stunning lack of secrecy and security aside, it's been suggested he could have been the wrong target; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66162502

[DeskJockey]

First night of the Proms and they're flying the colours! Opened with Sibelius's Finlandia (about Finland gaining freedom from the Russian empire) followed by a world premiere of a new piece by Ukrainian composer Bohdan Frolyak called "let there be light".

[Sundayjumper]

Kerch bridge has been hit again

[duncs500]

I think Ukraine are having a few small wins here and there, but this thing doesn't look like anything other than a massive long grind. I know Ukraine have been managing expectations since before the counter offensive, but as we've probably discussed, the only thing that can make a big difference is political developments from within Russia.

[RobYob]

The best analysis I've seen is that Ukraine is using the same overall strategy as worked in Kherson last year.

Advance with caution, force Russian forces particularly the artillery to reveal themselves and activate their resupply depots then hit both until the defences become untenable and hopefully collapse.

Independent loss data for artillery systems backs this up.

[Sundayjumper]

Rob's correct. Kerch is a vital supply route. This makes me think the big push will come quite soon now, once the Russians start running low on stock and the lack of bridge really starts to bite. A couple of weeks ?