OV9

Anyway

I keep a pretty close eye on the data. Firstly, the official new case data from the Government site for the last 7 days:

15-06-2021 7,673
14-06-2021 7,742
13-06-2021 7,490
12-06-2021 7,738
11-06-2021 8,125
10-06-2021 7,393
09-06-2021 7,540

See how, apart from the 11th it's more or less 7,500 for the last 7 days. It doesn't quite tally up with the 'doubling every 7-10 days' narrative we've been fed of late.

Also I've been drilling down into the map data and noticed that what seems to happen is that an area has a flare up of cases, then it radiates out from that area, then the area actually returns down again. I think that the Indian/Delta/Johnson variant is hitting a wall of antibodies as it travels across the UK, and this ONS study shows the numbers: (source):

"In England, an estimated 8 in 10 adults, or 80.3% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 77.3% to 83.2%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – on a blood test in the week beginning 17 May 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated."

So yes, whilst some rise in hospitalisations is baked in from the rise of 1500/day to 7,500/day over the next week or two, I think that the admission rate won't rise up so much as the scientists are fearing, and outcomes from those hospitalisations will be substantially better than 6 months ago.

I think as time is going on it’s getting clearer… the expected 7-14 day lag of admissions following cases has barely happened. I’m getting more confident now.

I see New York and California are lifting restrictions, based on 70% of the populations having had their first vaccination. Anyone not vaccinated still has some restrictions such as wearing a mask, social distancing.

Quite a contrast to the situation here; we have nearly 80% having had their first jab and nearly 60% both jabs and yet we aren't lifting restrictions. Trust Boris to keep getting it wrong; the swept-under-the-carpet (no questions allowed on Monday) issue of the failure to close the border to India, and the delay to lifting restrictions.

In the last week, infection rates have risen by 39% in the UK but fallen buy 15% in the US...

or are we saying that, due to vaccines, infection rates aren't necessarily the key metric as yeah, more people are getting infected but they're not getting seriously ill anymore - in general ?

dinny_g wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:04 am or are we saying that, due to vaccines, infection rates aren't necessarily the key metric as yeah, more people are getting infected but they're not getting seriously ill anymore - in general ?

Very much that for me - as vaccination doesn’t prevent you contracting the virus (or then passing it on to those who have not been vaccinated) we should be looking at the outcomes to guide our actions.

If 100% of the nation has the virus, but only 0.1% require hospitalisation, and 0% die….. we need to be opening things up.

makes sense

mik wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:21 am

dinny_g wrote: ↑Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:04 am or are we saying that, due to vaccines, infection rates aren't necessarily the key metric as yeah, more people are getting infected but they're not getting seriously ill anymore - in general ?

Very much that for me - as vaccination doesn’t prevent you contracting the virus (or then passing it on to those who have not been vaccinated) we should be looking at the outcomes to guide our actions.

It doesn't prevent you contracting it and passing it on, but it vastly reduces the chance of both.

https://www.espn.co.uk/football/uefa-eu ... es-sources

What do we think about this?

If it's exactly as it's being reported then it's fucking stupid for UEFA to try and pressure the government into dropping restrictions while we're still dealing with new cases.

Broccers wrote: ↑Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:22 am https://www.espn.co.uk/football/uefa-eu ... es-sources

What do we think about this?

Fine with that. It will be a shame for those with Tickets but there you go...

"We'll go win it somewhere else" / "It's not like we'll be in the final anyway" - delete as appropriate.

The Guardian are putting a different spin on it - Not "pressure from UEFA" but UK Officials "are doing as much as we possibly can to accommodate"

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... at-wembley

The thing that annoys me is the use of percentages as scare tactics.

My clients are slowly getting back to work so my business is picking up. One of them's furlough bill was 130k a week. Its about time we just got back to normal.

I had my second AatraZenica shot on Friday - wasn't half as bad as the first. I was just a bit weak on Saturday but no aches and pains, no headache and no sore arm.

And now, as I'm officially on the way to full Vaccine coverage can I formally declare "End the lockdown NOW!! It's ludicrous and unnecessary and bankrupting the country. Besides, COVID is just a bit of a cold, not worth getting your knickers in a twist over. Honestly, Bloody Snowflakes..."

My second jab has been brought forward to this Thursday (three weeks). See how I fare.

I looked into rebooking my second, but seeing as you have to cancel your second before you can rebook it I can't be bothered, in case I don't get another good slot. I'll just hold out to 12 weeks.

Got me bookings sorted (finally), requested each day off from work because why not?

Expecting to have to fight them to get both days off, even though the first jab is on my birthday...

Simon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:13 pm I looked into rebooking my second, but seeing as you have to cancel your second before you can rebook it I can't be bothered, in case I don't get another good slot. I'll just hold out to 12 weeks.

There was tons of availability when I did mine. If you had AZ I'd imagine you'll find the same

I did the same as Simon - if only they had a function to keep the original booking until you replace it I'd probably rearrange, but since my second is on 9 July it's not far enough away to bother. Moderna vaccine, and with the opening up to ages 18+ I can imagine there's going to be a fair bit of demand for slots.

Had an email from Goodwood that the FoS is going ahead as it’s now part of the pilot events. I rolled over my tickets from last year but the event this year sounds pretty shite from online rumours. No access to paddocks or manufacturer stands, hardly any international stuff. Basically just standing at the side of the road watching cars go by and eating shite overpriced food and drink…
Will wait until a few days before the event to see what’s confirmed otherwise I’ll not bother.

Simon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 12:13 pm I looked into rebooking my second, but seeing as you have to cancel your second before you can rebook it I can't be bothered, in case I don't get another good slot. I'll just hold out to 12 weeks.

Wasn't asked to cancel, just booked and the confirmation came through.

Ah, but did you use the site your GP text you, or did you use the NHS booking site? (I used the later)