OV9

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:06 am**

Jobbo wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 8:11 am
Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:27 am They've picked up on a mood, they've targeted the angry people who want things fixed. When you look through their (not a) manifesto it's all impossible grand statements to fix everything:

NHS waiting lists to zero in 2 years, taxes down, immigration fixed, etc...

If they could actually do everything they're saying then you'd be stupid not to vote for them. Hence they'll get a lot of votes from people who are stupid enough to think they can fix everything by just pointing out what's wrong. they'll still likely only get 2nd/3rd at best in most seats they're standing for.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you - but we're on page 42 now so it's not surprising I didn't refer back to something posted 9 pages ago

yep, I wasn't calling you out - just getting the bragging rights in for calling it if/when it happens!

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:33 am**

Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:06 am yep, I wasn't calling you out - just getting the bragging rights in for calling it if/when it happens!

Can't believe it takes a general election for us to be mutually backslapping rather than arguing

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:33 am**

Jobbo wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:33 am
Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:06 am yep, I wasn't calling you out - just getting the bragging rights in for calling it if/when it happens!
Can't believe it takes a general election for us to be mutually backslapping rather than arguing

it is all a bit odd isn't it!

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 10:36 am**

Nefarious wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 8:20 am

Indeed it covers retired, carers etc but there are a lot choosing not to work, taking their £75 a week, free housing, free school meals etc. Looking at the demographic, over 50% of women with Pakistani/ Bangladesh background apparently do not work. I can't understand how you can have a choice.
Sounds alarmingly close to propagating the myth of the scrounger - invented by Thatcher, comprehensively disproved, but erroneously repeated for 40 years since

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... -society/

Agreed it's bad to tar everyone with the same brush but it's not a myth. My better half has to deal with those who choose to do very little on a daily basis. It's mainly down to an unfortunate start in life and see it as the norm. There is a deserve mindset and whilst there are exceptions that take the help they are offered, others (most) just are a drain on society, maybe down to no fault of there own initially but are not willing to change whilst it's handed to them on a plate.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:49 pm**

Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 9:06 am
Jobbo wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 8:11 am
Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 6:27 am They've picked up on a mood, they've targeted the angry people who want things fixed. When you look through their (not a) manifesto it's all impossible grand statements to fix everything:

NHS waiting lists to zero in 2 years, taxes down, immigration fixed, etc...

If they could actually do everything they're saying then you'd be stupid not to vote for them. Hence they'll get a lot of votes from people who are stupid enough to think they can fix everything by just pointing out what's wrong. they'll still likely only get 2nd/3rd at best in most seats they're standing for.
Don't get me wrong, I agree with you - but we're on page 42 now so it's not surprising I didn't refer back to something posted 9 pages ago

yep, I wasn't calling you out - just getting the bragging rights in for calling it if/when it happens!

Largely agree however I'm not sure all that vote for them will be doing so thinking they'll sort anything at all - it will simply be a protest vote for some. More of the same if you vote blue or red, which leaves yellow (no way you're voting for those liberal woke nutters), green (see yellow), or one of the fringe loony parties that definitely won't get in. It's going to be one of the latter and Reform are most likely to give the blues a bloody nose. Job done

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:59 pm**

(Genuine) question for the proponents of PR of this parish...

At this juncture would you prefer large Labour majority or (based on current polling) a hung parliament that was 38% Labour 36% Conservative and Reform and 26% other?

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:14 pm**

Hung parliament. Most of the ex labour left feel the same as far as I can tell.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:16 pm**

That would mean the parliament would have a signifcantly larger proportion of centre right and right leaning parties in it though. Do you believe that would pull policy left of labour's current position rather than to the right?

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:20 pm**

GG. wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:59 pm (Genuine) question for the proponents of PR of this parish...

At this juncture would you prefer large Labour majority or (based on current polling) a hung parliament that was 38% Labour 36% Conservative and Reform and 26% other?

I'm not really a proponent of PR and I doubt the Tories will be after the election even if those figures are borne out. But if Reform actually had a measurable influence on the government of this country I think we would be pining for the 2019-2024 Tory administration as the sunlit uplands

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:26 pm**

Is there data for this? As a kinda "if we had PR, this is how things would turn out" calculations? As that sounds quite interesting.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:30 pm**

Bean, here's an interesting site - they are proponents of PR so have a bias of course:
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/how ... sentation/

The thing about PR is that you can't guarantee that the voting would have been the same under that system. Tactical voting becomes pretty much irrelevant, and there may be more people encouraged to vote who wouldn't otherwise because they consider it worthless in a safe seat.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:32 pm**

That's a good point but I think it should be similar to the polling because that shouldn't be (as) distorted by safe/marginal seats or tactical voting but more of a true representation of "who do you like".

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:43 pm**

I'm more of a fan of one party with a majority to go out and actually implement their policies. Sink or swim. Otherwise you just end up drifting on in the same direction you were heading.

In a perverse way, I was kind of a fan of the Tories getting a majority back in 2019 with Boris (even though I didn't vote for them). Obviously it just led to us finding out they were all corrupt bullshitters, but at least they got found out because they got enough rope to hang themselves.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:44 pm**

Cheers Jobbo.

And yeah, that was my thought. If we had PR then the campaigning and positioning would likely be different, as for example the conservatives wouldn't need to pander to the extreme right so much as a party meaning their manifesto could be more reasonable to centre aligned voters, getting them more floating votes, and Reform wouldn't need to be as 'reasonable' and could pick candidates who think we should have appeased HItler and that women shouldn't get healthcare on the NHS, the sponging whores.

Oh, wait, Reform are already doing that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

Along with over a dozen other candidates they've had to bin off because of 'interesting' social media histories....

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:48 pm**

I think your mindset is still working on the basis of the the FPTP system. The current Reform vote is made up of ex-Conservatives very largely. You may find that they accept the loss of their more metropolitan, let's admit it, left of centre voters and move further right.

It was a sufficient threat to trigger Cameron to allow a vote for Brexit so don't underestimate the signficance of the right leaning percentage of the populace, particularly in a PR system. It could also trigger Labour to lurch much further left as Corbyn would have had more of shot with PR.

I think one of the main benefits, depending on your PoV, of FPTP (as well as decision making mentioned by Rich) is that is actually drags parties to the middle, rather than more left and right leaning elements which then fold into larger groups as coalitions.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:01 pm**

GG. wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:16 pm That would mean the parliament would have a signifcantly larger proportion of centre right and right leaning parties in it though. Do you believe that would pull policy left of labour's current position rather than to the right?

Current labour are already centre right, the hope would be that they’d have to give in to some more left wing parties occasionally for a majority

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:02 pm**

I’ll never understand this urge for all politics to be a turgid centre right mass tbh.

It’s not going that well is it?

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:12 pm**

Rich B wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:43 pm I'm more of a fan of one party with a majority to go out and actually implement their policies. Sink or swim. Otherwise you just end up drifting on in the same direction you were heading.

In a perverse way, I was kind of a fan of the Tories getting a majority back in 2019 with Boris (even though I didn't vote for them). Obviously it just led to us finding out they were all corrupt bullshitters, but at least they got found out because they got enough rope to hang themselves.

Very much agree with the first sentiment Rich - I've mentioned it before but Irish Politics is largely based on Coalitions over the past 30 or 40 years and moves so incredibly slowly as every government tries desperately not to trip over itself and alienate the other party.

And for the second part, again, fully agree with this now for Labour - not for the corruption etc but they've been out of power for so long now, reduced to sniping fro the opposition. It's time for them to show us what they can do.

For this reason, I'm voting for the local Labour candidate even though, at a purely local level, the Tory candidate is better / more aligned to what I want.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:28 pm**

GG. wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:48 pm I think your mindset is still working on the basis of the the FPTP system. The current Reform vote is made up of ex-Conservatives very largely. You may find that they accept the loss of their more metropolitan, let's admit it, left of centre voters and move further right.

It was a sufficient threat to trigger Cameron to allow a vote for Brexit so don't underestimate the signficance of the right leaning percentage of the populace, particularly in a PR system. It could also trigger Labour to lurch much further left as Corbyn would have had more of shot with PR.

I think one of the main benefits, depending on your PoV, of FPTP (as well as decision making mentioned by Rich) is that is actually drags parties to the middle, rather than more left and right leaning elements which then fold into larger groups as coalitions.

I'm not sure who that was a reply to, but if it's in response to my comment about Reform then I would rejoinder: we've seen how much influence they (in particular, Farage) has had without actually winning more than one seat. Their policies are vague and their appeal is based on soundbites by one man. It would be madly dangerous for them to have any actual power.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:52 pm**

Jobbo wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 4:28 pm
GG. wrote: Wed Jun 12, 2024 1:48 pm I think your mindset is still working on the basis of the the FPTP system. The current Reform vote is made up of ex-Conservatives very largely. You may find that they accept the loss of their more metropolitan, let's admit it, left of centre voters and move further right.

It was a sufficient threat to trigger Cameron to allow a vote for Brexit so don't underestimate the signficance of the right leaning percentage of the populace, particularly in a PR system. It could also trigger Labour to lurch much further left as Corbyn would have had more of shot with PR.

I think one of the main benefits, depending on your PoV, of FPTP (as well as decision making mentioned by Rich) is that is actually drags parties to the middle, rather than more left and right leaning elements which then fold into larger groups as coalitions.
I'm not sure who that was a reply to, but if it's in response to my comment about Reform then I would rejoinder: we've seen how much influence they (in particular, Farage) has had without actually winning more than one seat. Their policies are vague and their appeal is based on soundbites by one man. It would be madly dangerous for them to have any actual power.

It was a reply to Beany not to your point re Reform particularly. The comment in bold is also quite transferable to Labour though

OV9

Bye Bye Sunak..

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