OV9

Petrol stations are probably rubbing their hands together with anticipation. A forecourt full of people sat at the pumps for up to hours on end needing refreshments and entertainment!

Yes if you believe the poor petrol stations they’re only making 1p per litre profit. They’ll make much more off electricity and selling shite.

One thing which occurs to me though, when we travel long distance, naturally I fill the car up before we leave. And then when we arrive.

In an EV, I’d charge it from home, because I can. Cannot fill the car up from home. And then when I get to my sister’s gaff for example, I’ll plug the car in and charge it up. My dependence upon filling stations will diminish at least in that scenario.

ShockDiamonds wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:14 pm The whole thing is utter bollocks. As Dave points out, get to 2030 for example, the polls suggest people don’t want it, the infrastructure bods say we’re not ready, the government of the day will cite some study by some obscure body which claims it’s not actually needed and against the threat of losing the next election, it’ll be pushed back 20 years.

Nah. In 10yrs I reckon a majority of people will be driving BEVs or PHEVs. That's still five yrs away from a ban on new sales and I genuinely don't think it will be an issue. It wouldn't surprise me if it could be brought forward to to manufacturers simply ceasing production altogether before then.

I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

Simple thing called economies of scale.

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

Leasing and rental.

Mito Man wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:39 pm Simple thing called economies of scale.

That doesn't work when a lot of the cost will be expensive raw materials used to make the batteries. They will have a price floor much higher than a basic ICE.

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:55 pm

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

Leasing and rental.

You're still leasing / renting a higher capital amount than for an equivalent ICE car. So if you're currently leasing a budget ICE car, your payments are likely to increase considerably. If you bought a budget ICE car outright, you may now only be able to afford to rent.

Plus you'll also be paying significantly higher utility bills once the whole system is fucked to try and regain some of the revenues lost from the tax on fossil fuels.

Basically poorer people will get shafted.

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:56 pm

Mito Man wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:39 pm Simple thing called economies of scale.

That doesn't work when a lot of the cost will be expensive raw materials used to make the batteries. They will have a price floor much higher than a basic ICE.

and it’s not as though we don’t make fucking massive numbers of batteries at the moment.

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:58 pm

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:55 pm

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

Leasing and rental.

You're still leasing / renting a higher capital amount than for an equivalent ICE car. So if you're currently leasing a budget ICE car, your payments are likely to increase considerably. If you bought a budget ICE car outright, you may now only be able to afford to rent.

Plus you'll also be paying significantly higher utility bills once the whole system is fucked to try and regain some of the revenues lost from the tax on fossil fuels.

Basically poorer people will get shafted.

Very much this.

How will it match people who spend 1500 on a car every 4 or so years like a lot of people I know.

Dave!

There’ll be 10/15 year old £1500 EVs in 15 years. Whether the batteries will have any working life left is another matter I guess.

V8Granite wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:03 pm

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:58 pm

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:55 pm

Leasing and rental.

You're still leasing / renting a higher capital amount than for an equivalent ICE car. So if you're currently leasing a budget ICE car, your payments are likely to increase considerably. If you bought a budget ICE car outright, you may now only be able to afford to rent.

Plus you'll also be paying significantly higher utility bills once the whole system is fucked to try and regain some of the revenues lost from the tax on fossil fuels.

Basically poorer people will get shafted.

Very much this.

How will it match people who spend 1500 on a car every 4 or so years like a lot of people I know.

Dave!

Its FIFTEEN YEARS away. And it's only a ban on NEW sales. There'll be fecking tons of used EVs available as well as metric fvckloads of near worthless ICE cars available. If anything, it might help them.

They might be better off spending 5 grand on a used EV as they won’t need to fill the fucker up every week.

I think that in future, Home Battery systems Like Tesla's one will become ubiquitous and will address some of the challenges being mentioned here.

They will smooth our the relative inconsistencies in supply capacity of Renewable vs Nuclear. Batteries loaded up when it's windy, sunny etc. The "Everyone plugging into the network at 18:30 when they get home from work" charging their car won't be as much of an issue if the car's being charged off a home battery rather than directly from the network.

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

There's two things shifting: EVs are getting cheaper (Skoda Citigo EV is under £17k but is better trim than the basic outgoing ICE ones), and the new "budget" ICE cars are getting squeezed by WLTP testing and EU fleet average CO2. If you want a new small cheap petrol runabout, buy it now because it'll either be axed very soon or get a lot more expensive as the fines get built into the price, or they start sticking mild hybrid tech in them to get CO2 down.

But the list price is largely irrelevant when so many people finance or lease new cars. Funders will likely predict less depreciation for EVs than petrol/diesel so any gap closes. Then when tax and fuel gets factored in the EV can look cheaper.

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

simon_g wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:16 pm

GG. wrote: Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:23 pm I think what is also not seemingly being factored into the equation for mass takeup is what happens for budget cars.

How are you going to make them BEVs without doubling the price?

There's two things shifting: EVs are getting cheaper (Skoda Citigo EV is under £17k but is better trim than the basic outgoing ICE ones), and the new "budget" ICE cars are getting squeezed by WLTP testing and EU fleet average CO2. If you want a new small cheap petrol runabout, buy it now because it'll either be axed very soon or get a lot more expensive as the fines get built into the price, or they start sticking mild hybrid tech in them to get CO2 down.

But the list price is largely irrelevant when so many people finance or lease new cars. Funders will likely predict less depreciation for EVs than petrol/diesel so any gap closes. Then when tax and fuel gets factored in the EV can look cheaper.

In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

Only at today’s tax, fuel costs. Is there any predicted fuel cost for electric cars in the future ? I’d be amazed if the perks and cheap electricity stay once the shift happens from ICE to Electric.

Dave!

A way will always be found to extract all money available from us. So if we can afford to spend a certain amount on transport now, someone will extract that money in some other way in the future.

simon_g wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:16 pm
In 10 years time there'll be plenty of today's EVs knocking about at affordable prices. Not quite sure what the price floor would be though, the ICE cheap car for a grand or so today still needs as much again spending on fuel, tax, etc for a year's use while the EV won't.

But will those 10+ year old EVs actually function fully or will battery degradation effectively have written them off?