OV9

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:36 am Official Gov't advice is that you shouldn't do any tests (PCR or LFT) for 90 days after a +ve PCR.

Why, do they give you COVID?

I'm sure it could be very easily verified is we had the numbers in front of us.

I'm making no comment on people being horrible humans, but clearly, like-for-like, in a individual, vaccination makes a *massive* difference to chances of being hospitalised.

Was just pointing out that your previous post of "70% of the population are vaccinated, 35% of hospitalisations are unvaxxed, therefore it makes little difference" is the statistical equivalent of a false syllogism.

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:03 pmbut clearly, like-for-like, in a individual, vaccination makes a *massive* difference to chances of being hospitalised.

based on what data though? Even the comment from the matron mentioned earlier was full of caveats when you read the whole piece.

If we're making statements like that, and even talking about denying hospital treatment to people based solely upon it, surely there's irrefutable numbers to back it up?

Rich B wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:09 pm

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 12:03 pmbut clearly, like-for-like, in a individual, vaccination makes a *massive* difference to chances of being hospitalised.

based on what data though? Even the comment from the matron mentioned earlier was full of caveats when you read the whole piece.

If we're making statements like that, and even talking about denying hospital treatment to people based solely upon it, surely there's irrefutable numbers to back it up?

I think the stat you're searching for in that case is the vaccine efficacy rate, which is published by each of the drug manufacturers and their research verified by the various national drug oversight bodies.
From memory, Pfizer and Moderna are somewhere around 97% efficacy for "severe" illness and AZ was around 90%. I think the numbers are a bit lower for Omicron (80-something for Moderna and 77 for Pfizer).

They might not be "irrefutable", but given that they're probably the most scrutinised bits of data in the world at the moment, then in stats terms they're probably as reliable as you're ever likely to see (unless we're going down the "all governments, pharma companies, WHO are part of a giant conspiracy" road)

ETA: exactly what 97% efficacy means - in a sufficiently large study, conducted with an approved methodology, 97% *more* people in the "control" group experienced "severe" illness than in the vaccinated group.
I think that qualifies as statistical justification for my statement of "clearly, like-for-like, in a individual, vaccination makes a *massive* difference to chances of being hospitalised"

I disagree, but until we have the actual figures, I'll be challenging anyone who makes that sort of statement.

WTF do you mean "until we have the figures"? It's all published, peer reviewed and reported to the various national oversight bodies (FDA etc etc), and has been widely reported

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:24 pm WTF do you mean "until we have the figures"? It's all published, peer reviewed and reported to the various national oversight bodies (FDA etc etc), and has been widely reported

show me the figures for vaccinated Vs unvaccinated in hospitals then.

Here's a recent paper from the Lancet for Pfizer: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 8/fulltext

To save you clicking, the headline finding was "For fully vaccinated individuals, effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections was 73% (95% CI 72–74) and against COVID-19-related hospital admissions was 90% (89–92)."

Rich B wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:26 pm

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 1:24 pm WTF do you mean "until we have the figures"? It's all published, peer reviewed and reported to the various national oversight bodies (FDA etc etc), and has been widely reported

show me the figures for vaccinated Vs unvaccinated in hospitals then.

Latest CDC data by vaccine status:

Unvaccinated: 451 cases per 100k
Vaccinated: 134 cases per 100k
Boosted: 48 cases per 100k

Unvaccinated: 6.1 deaths per 100k
Vaccinated: 0.5 deaths per 100k
Boosted: 0.1 deaths per 100k

That's newt!

Have you got the link for these? Are they current (omnicron) or older variants?

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... ine-status - they publish bags of data and it needs a bit of sifting but the numbers are off the tracker here.

It's "real world" and hence confounded data - so going to be a mix of strains. I'm also willing to bet the American unvaccinated are far more likely to indulge in behaviours which place them at risk of catching it (massive, unmasked orgies... sorry I mean, business meetings).

Explosive Newt wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:17 pm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... ine-status - they publish bags of data and it needs a bit of sifting but the numbers are off the tracker here.

It's "real world" and hence confounded data - so going to be a mix of strains. I'm also willing to bet the American unvaccinated are far more likely to indulge in behaviours which place them at risk of catching it (massive, unmasked orgies... sorry I mean, business meetings).

That's all well and good, but I'm not going to agree with it, and will continue to argue until you find me *specific* data on unvaccinated dwarf lepers, by sexual orientation, presented as a spider graph, with text in comic sans.

You'd better work from home or else.

Laughable. I'd like to see those fines stand up in court.

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:52 pm

Explosive Newt wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:17 pm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... ine-status - they publish bags of data and it needs a bit of sifting but the numbers are off the tracker here.

It's "real world" and hence confounded data - so going to be a mix of strains. I'm also willing to bet the American unvaccinated are far more likely to indulge in behaviours which place them at risk of catching it (massive, unmasked orgies... sorry I mean, business meetings).

That's all well and good, but I'm not going to agree with it, and will continue to argue until you find me *specific* data on unvaccinated dwarf lepers, by sexual orientation, presented as a spider graph, with text in comic sans.

you really are a penis sometimes!

Simon wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:59 pm You'd better work from home or else.

Laughable. I'd like to see those fines stand up in court.

I, um, that can't be real, right?

They realise the sort of employers who aren't allowing WFH because it involves effort and expense are exactly the sort of employers, who if you force the issue, will just fucking sack you, right?

Click to expand images

I had a pinker line today but that might be down to less snot or not scrambling my already addled brains quite enough this time.

Anyway just to re-iterate that it's not really anything if you are of middle-age and not suffering from something beforehand.

Rich B wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:05 pm

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:52 pm

Explosive Newt wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:17 pm https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracke ... ine-status - they publish bags of data and it needs a bit of sifting but the numbers are off the tracker here.

It's "real world" and hence confounded data - so going to be a mix of strains. I'm also willing to bet the American unvaccinated are far more likely to indulge in behaviours which place them at risk of catching it (massive, unmasked orgies... sorry I mean, business meetings).

That's all well and good, but I'm not going to agree with it, and will continue to argue until you find me *specific* data on unvaccinated dwarf lepers, by sexual orientation, presented as a spider graph, with text in comic sans.

you really are a penis sometimes!

I'm not going to let you off such a humdinger of a stats salad after the whole "the Tories are definitely honest as the day is long unless you have a signed confession to the contrary" incident