Coronavirus

[Jobbo]

I find it just crazy that there's a lab in a city working on developing this type of virus, and the outbreak originated from that city, and it is not assumed that the lab is not in all liklihood the source.

Maybe it isn't the origin, but it's a bit like being caught next to a dead body with a bloody knife and everybody is happy to assume you're not the murderer.

That’s exactly what has been strongly suggested many times over the last 2 years and yet no evidence has been found that this was the case. In fact, as per my link, while there are people trying to make money out of writing books suggesting that it’s escaped from a lab, the evidence found over the period actually makes it less likely, not more.

It’s probably never going to be 100% proven either way, which gives the agenda-pushing right wingers the chance to trot out the same insinuations every few months. If it did escape from a lab, so what? Do we sue the lab for damages? Stop doing anything and ask the lab to let us have an antidote?

[Rich B]

Yeah, if it was them, so what. It only killed millions and destroyed the worlds economy. No point in learning anything or changing anything so it can't happen again or anything like that.

Let's just concentrate on the bats and pangolins instead.

[Jobbo]

If it were proven to be from a lab, what outcome would you like to see?

I’ve no skin in this game; my point is that the evidence doesn’t point to it coming from a lab, it’s just the same suggestion repeated every few months. There’s a scientist called Michael Worobey who seems pretty convincing about it coming from the wet market.

[Edited to correct my typo in his name]

[Rich B]

If it were proven to be from a lab, what outcome would you like to see?

I’ve no skin in this game; my point is that the evidence doesn’t point to it coming from a lab, it’s just the same suggestion repeated every few months. There’s a scientist called Michael Worobey who seems pretty convincing about it coming from the wet market.

[Edited to correct my typo in his name]

at the very least, a change/review of their procedures so it couldn't happen again. If they did let it out, they're clearly doing something very wrong.

[duncs500]

You don't think that it's suspicious in itself that they didn't find conclusive evidence when in previous outbreaks it was clear what had happened?

It's not something I'm passionate about, and maybe I need to read and understand more of the evidence, but if it is from nature that lab is one hell of a coincidence.

[Jobbo]

I don’t think the lack of conclusive evidence either way is particularly suspicious. How many virus mutations of any type are accurately tracked back to their origin via every intermediate variant?

[Jobbo]

If it were proven to be from a lab, what outcome would you like to see?

I’ve no skin in this game; my point is that the evidence doesn’t point to it coming from a lab, it’s just the same suggestion repeated every few months. There’s a scientist called Michael Worobey who seems pretty convincing about it coming from the wet market.

[Edited to correct my typo in his name]

at the very least, a change/review of their procedures so it couldn't happen again. If they did let it out, they're clearly doing something very wrong.

Two things in response, though I agree with the sentiment that something has gone very wrong if this was a lab leak;
1. Does knowing it’s a lab leak get us any closer to stopping the pandemic?
2. Is there any prospect of taking enforcement actions against a lab in China?

[jamcg]

I’ve seen some articles that have followed evidence for both possibilities, natural and lab made

In the lab made scenario it was suggested it was from “gain of function” research, with the intention of understanding a coronavirus with specific adaptions to attack humans. It however also said the person known to be involved in this was a Chinese virologist who had started this research in America and was now continuing this research, probably at least partly funded by America

So if it is lab made (not saying it is) in this case you would never find out if it involves China and America

[mik]

2. We could nuke the entire site from orbit?

[Rich B]

If it were proven to be from a lab, what outcome would you like to see?

I’ve no skin in this game; my point is that the evidence doesn’t point to it coming from a lab, it’s just the same suggestion repeated every few months. There’s a scientist called Michael Worobey who seems pretty convincing about it coming from the wet market.

[Edited to correct my typo in his name]

at the very least, a change/review of their procedures so it couldn't happen again. If they did let it out, they're clearly doing something very wrong.

Two things in response, though I agree with the sentiment that something has gone very wrong if this was a lab leak;
1. Does knowing it’s a lab leak get us any closer to stopping the pandemic?
2. Is there any prospect of taking enforcement actions against a lab in China?

I know you're focused on the punishment side of things, being a law-monger, but It may not need to be about enforcement actions or punishment.

Again, basing this on the assumption that it did come from the lab, they may well not have the knowledge to stop it happening again (you could argue that they definitely don't, if it has happened once), but someone else might and it benefits everyone to share this knowledge. Or the flip side of this is, the same flaw may exist in labs all over the world, and they're just the first to fuck up.

[V8Granite]

Having worked around Chinese business, I wouldn’t trust a single thing coming out of any officials mouth. Individuals are the same as everyone else but as a team it’s crazy what they will do to get out of something.

I’d trust what a drunk Trump says more than that.

Dave!

[Explosive Newt]

I find it just crazy that there's a lab in a city working on developing this type of virus, and the outbreak originated from that city, and it is not assumed that the lab is not in all liklihood the source.

Maybe it isn't the origin, but it's a bit like being caught next to a dead body with a bloody knife and everybody is happy to assume you're not the murderer.

Yeah, but the reason the lab is there in the first place is that it's an area rife with these viruses (thanks to all those lovely wet markets etc); locating the lab there makes practical sense from a sample collection perspective.

Or the reason you're next to the dead body with the bloody knife is that you're the guy who does the autopsies on dead bodies!

[Jobbo]

I know you're focused on the punishment side of things, being a law-monger, but It may not need to be about enforcement actions or punishment.

Again, basing this on the assumption that it did come from the lab, they may well not have the knowledge to stop it happening again (you could argue that they definitely don't, if it has happened once), but someone else might and it benefits everyone to share this knowledge. Or the flip side of this is, the same flaw may exist in labs all over the world, and they're just the first to fuck up.

I'm not a criminal lawyer so no, I'm not at all about the punishment side of things. I'm interested in the consequences though. Sharing scientific knowledge is good, and learning how to stop it ever happening again is great. But that is not the immediate next step, which is to try to stop the pandemic. In the meantime, it is probably not helpful for people who know that blaming a lab in Wuhan (which can't be disproved currently) sells papers to write a book to profit from scaremongering. As scientists they ought really to stick to scientific papers for peer review. That's how our knowledge and understanding actually grows, not articles in the Telegraph fomenting the Trumpian image of the Chinese.

[duncs500]

I find it just crazy that there's a lab in a city working on developing this type of virus, and the outbreak originated from that city, and it is not assumed that the lab is not in all liklihood the source.

Maybe it isn't the origin, but it's a bit like being caught next to a dead body with a bloody knife and everybody is happy to assume you're not the murderer.

Yeah, but the reason the lab is there in the first place is that it's an area rife with these viruses (thanks to all those lovely wet markets etc); locating the lab there makes practical sense from a sample collection perspective.

Or the reason you're next to the dead body with the bloody knife is that you're the guy who does the autopsies on dead bodies!

Touché!

[mr_jon]

Now also testing positive on lflow, xmas with family likely in the bin. Managed somehow to get an xmas food delivery slot with a decent turkey.

[Simon]

I find it just crazy that there's a lab in a city working on developing this type of virus, and the outbreak originated from that city, and it is not assumed that the lab is not in all liklihood the source.

Maybe it isn't the origin, but it's a bit like being caught next to a dead body with a bloody knife and everybody is happy to assume you're not the murderer.

That’s exactly what has been strongly suggested many times over the last 2 years and yet no evidence has been found that this was the case.

So why the obfuscation, stalling, etc etc from the CCP and the authorities in China? 'If they've nothing to hide' etc. I'm sure they're very good at making evidence disappear too.

Let's not forget that even when the WHO investigators were literally at the border they denied them entry for further.

And that the CCP has now been recognised by many countries (UK included) of actual genocide. I'm sure we can definitely trust everything they say and there's no way they'd cover up something leaking from the lab.

Look, I'm not saying it definitely coming from the lab, but to say 'there is no evidence' is a bit of a stretch when you're not allowed to search properly for that evidence.

[Jobbo]

So why the obfuscation, stalling, etc etc from the CCP and the authorities in China? 'If they've nothing to hide' etc. I'm sure they're very good at making evidence disappear too.

To fuel conspiracy theorists, obvs.

There is active evidence of the location of the first known people infected with COVID, 40% of whom worked in one small market (so statistically way more than just coincidence) and of those who didn't, mainly clustered around it. I think that points far more to the market being the likely origin.

My point is simply that the source of the story you posted is promoting her book, which seems to be short on evidence. As a scientist that seems a bit of a weakness. But it's been enthusiastically picked up by the Telegraph and Mail in the same way Trump reported on the 'Chi-na virus'. It's not new information, it's just the same stuff rehashed. Maybe the Chinese authorities are hiding something (it seems fairly clear the virus did originate there, we're only debating which was the actual source within China) but the way this is reported is just typical jingoism from right wing newspapers.

[JonMad]

Mum got a positive LFT.,, yep, 9 days before they were due to come to us for Christmas. PCR happening later today. She's not feeling too bad. Interestingly, she was really ill last week whilst getting negative LFTs. Someone nearby had that with their kid - the +ve LFT and PCR came just as they were getting better after repeated -ve LFTs.

[dinny_g]

Sorry to hear that Jon - hope she's OK

I'm paranoid about testing positive because we've 14 at ours for dinner. Sort of a present to my Father in Law as it will be the first time all his kids and all his Grandkids will be together.

[JonMad]

Cheers Dinny. Yes, fingers crossed.