OV9

Broccers last night

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:09 am Broccers last night

Good to see you've got over being ignored Christine

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:59 am

duncs500 wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:30 am TBH, I don't really think this omicron is the big deal that the we're being encouraged to believe.

I think the exact opposite - I think Omicron is going to be a total game-changer, at least in the medium-term.

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (the best model we have at the moment) has a best-case scenario peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 (95% CI: 139,000–198,000) hospitalisations and 24,700 (19,500–28,700) deaths between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022. Worst case shows 492,000 (418,000–537,000) hospitalisations and 74,800 (63,500–82,900) deaths.

Neil, I don't argue with the "% of a large number being a real risk to NHS", but I am confused by the LSHTM modelling numbers when you compare to our only current metric, SA. The two just don't stack up, unless we're talking ALL mortality in those numbers (ie: all those NOT getting treated, cos Covid cases clogging NHS?)

Omicron has been running wild in SA for over a month now, plenty time to get some death spikes unless the time frame has changed.

Also, does anyone have any data on the "three week" wait until antibodies are up to speed, with the booster? Are we ignoring that, or does it not count after the third dose?

Barry wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:20 am

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:59 am

duncs500 wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:30 am TBH, I don't really think this omicron is the big deal that the we're being encouraged to believe.

I think the exact opposite - I think Omicron is going to be a total game-changer, at least in the medium-term.

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (the best model we have at the moment) has a best-case scenario peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 (95% CI: 139,000–198,000) hospitalisations and 24,700 (19,500–28,700) deaths between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022. Worst case shows 492,000 (418,000–537,000) hospitalisations and 74,800 (63,500–82,900) deaths.

Neil, I don't argue with the "% of a large number being a real risk to NHS", but I am confused by the LSHTM modelling numbers when you compare to our only current metric, SA. The two just don't stack up, unless we're talking ALL mortality in those numbers (ie: all those NOT getting treated, cos Covid cases clogging NHS?)

Omicron has been running wild in SA for over a month now, plenty time to get some death spikes unless the time frame has changed.

Also, does anyone have any data on the "three week" wait until antibodies are up to speed, with the booster? Are we ignoring that, or does it not count after the third dose?

Wow a voice of reason. Mr Grumpy from the North.

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:08 am

Rich B wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:46 am

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:36 am

Back foot. It's amazing, to me at least, that the UK peeps just bend and accept what the Media and Guv tell them. It's not that bad. It really isn't. My narrative is to question what you are being fed. Media, Guv etc. Questioning a lone voice on a forum of 25 active members really isnt the best place to open your eyes.

ok, and what conclusion has your questioning led you to? Surely you have an opinion?

My conclusion is people like you have no gumption, are sheep and do what they are told. Your take?

You still haven't told us. Are you saying you don't believe in COVID, lockdowns, vaccines or what?

Jobbo wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:29 am

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:08 am

Rich B wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:46 am ok, and what conclusion has your questioning led you to? Surely you have an opinion?

My conclusion is people like you have no gumption, are sheep and do what they are told. Your take?

You still haven't told us. Are you saying you don't believe in COVID, lockdowns, vaccines or what?

Us - is Us a shield for tragic loners? Answer Barry or Drcarlos?

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:59 amBut a smaller percentage of a massively bigger number of infections is still going to be a massive number. And massive numbers of infections means massive numbers of NHS staff infections. They might not be at death's door, but they're still going to be off work. For a system that's already way beyond the point of creaking, it's likely to enormously reduce the practical capacity of hospitals, and therefore significantly increase the deaths to hospitalisations ratio.

Basically, it's going to rip through the population largely unchecked. The vast majority it be absolutely fine but the sheer numbers will cripple the NHS response for those that do need them.

Sadly, the very things that would make a difference now - closing hospitality and banning mass gatherings are too politically hot to consider, so we're left playing at the margins with half-hearted work-from-home advice and "please wear a mask if it's not too much trouble", and hoping the boosters are effective enough to ease the NHS load.

I think that's exactly what is behind all of this this. The government are steadfastly refusing to publicly acknowledge just how understaffed the NHS currently is and how much investment is needed, but they know full well what will happen in this scenario.

I'm just going on feedback from people I know who work in hospitals up here and they are struggling to cope as it is, not to mention morale is at an all-time low.

Barry wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:20 am

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:59 am

duncs500 wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:30 am TBH, I don't really think this omicron is the big deal that the we're being encouraged to believe.

I think the exact opposite - I think Omicron is going to be a total game-changer, at least in the medium-term.

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (the best model we have at the moment) has a best-case scenario peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 (95% CI: 139,000–198,000) hospitalisations and 24,700 (19,500–28,700) deaths between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022. Worst case shows 492,000 (418,000–537,000) hospitalisations and 74,800 (63,500–82,900) deaths.

Neil, I don't argue with the "% of a large number being a real risk to NHS", but I am confused by the LSHTM modelling numbers when you compare to our only current metric, SA. The two just don't stack up, unless we're talking ALL mortality in those numbers (ie: all those NOT getting treated, cos Covid cases clogging NHS?)

Omicron has been running wild in SA for over a month now, plenty time to get some death spikes unless the time frame has changed.

I believe we're due the first proper report on the SA situation later today, which will hopefully shed some more light, but I believe the big difference between UK and SA is that SA achieved pretty close to herd immunity from previous waves (I've seen a figure of 80%, but can't confirm veracity). It doesn't prevent infection but population T-cell counts are much higher meaning like-for-like the severity is lower. I believe this is why we're been taking the anecdotal reports to lower severity with a pinch of salt - it sounds like the symptom profile is genuinely different and less respiratory, which is great for prognosis in more severe cases, but too early to write it off as no problem, because the populations are very different.

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:32 am

Jobbo wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:29 am

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:08 am

My conclusion is people like you have no gumption, are sheep and do what they are told. Your take?

You still haven't told us. Are you saying you don't believe in COVID, lockdowns, vaccines or what?

Us - is Us a shield for tragic loners? Answer Barry or Drcarlos?

Why don't you answer?

Nefarious wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:59 am

duncs500 wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:30 am TBH, I don't really think this omicron is the big deal that the we're being encouraged to believe.

Modelling from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (the best model we have at the moment) <SNIP>

Just one point - we don't know which model is 'best' until this is all behind us. The rest, until then, is best guess and deduction.

Anyway, this thread is worth a read. Click to open in full.

Jobbo wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:08 pm

Broccers wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:32 am

Jobbo wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:29 am
You still haven't told us. Are you saying you don't believe in COVID, lockdowns, vaccines or what?

Us - is Us a shield for tragic loners? Answer Barry or Drcarlos?

Why don't you answer?

If you read back you'll see my answer to all your questions. May take you a while

I'm enjoying the equivalent of Broccers running into a room, shouting 'You're all sheep - wake up!' and running out again so he doesn't have to answer any difficult questions. I've not seem Broccers come up with one credible answer - such as; why? Why, why why would they want to control us via a vaccine?

Just answer that, logically and intelligently - then we'll listen.

I spoke to someone like Broccers at the weekend. They haven't had any jabs, have had Covid twice and were relitavely OK, so to their logic, there's no need to be jabbing everyone Worldwide. It's just not dangerous.

When I asked if she woke up in the morning and the news were proclaiming a new breakthrough cancer drug that would mean even if you got cancer, you were very very unlikely to die from it, would you queue up and take it? Unequivocally 'Yes'. When I told her she was more likely to die from Covid than cancer, so why didn't she take the 'cure' on offer, she had no clear answer.

Interestingly, the couple on the same table were previously of the same thought, in that Covid was bollocks and were never taking the jabs. Until they caught it and one of them nearly died. Now, they can't wait to get the jabs, as the thought of leaving their 3 kids behind because of their dsitrust of medicine that is being pushed by politicians, not the scientists that developed it, terrifies them.

It's the lack of understanding of how all this works is what brings the Broccers out in droves. They just can't get their heads around the big picture.

I spoke to someone like Broccers at the weekend. They haven't had any jabs,

I've had 3 jabs. Good long post, must've taken you a while to type it

I said Intelligent replies, dipshit

Gwaredd wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:26 pm I said Intelligent replies, dipshit

Was that in your thick as mince ginger head?

Gwaredd wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:13 pm

Just answer that, logically and intelligently - then we'll listen.

You are such a dumb fuck. I mean, really. We're all belming at you here - it's embarassing mate.

Gwaredd wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:41 pm

Gwaredd wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:13 pm

Just answer that, logically and intelligently - then we'll listen.

You are such a dumb fuck. I mean, really. We're all belming at you here - it's embarassing mate.

We, us? Is there a gang? In reality this isn't true.

I think this is world class trolling - the likes of which I've never seen. I genuinely mean it - it's hugely impressive

390 pages in and no-one's yet managed to paint you into a corner of saying anything you don't want to, admitting anything you don't want to, making any statement that can be proved wrong etc.

Bravo sir, bravo...

dinny_g wrote: Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:02 pm I think this is world class trolling - the likes of which I've never seen. I genuinely mean it - it's hugely impressive

390 pages in and no-one's yet managed to paint you into a corner of saying anything you don't want to, admitting anything you don't want to, making any statement that can be proved wrong etc.

Bravo sir, bravo...

Good innit?

Keep on posting lads