OV9

We had local lockdowns before and people didn't seem to care, just drive 30 minutes to the next town along...
And people who are against having vaccines will still be against them.

Rich B wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:38 am

Broccers wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:34 am

Rich B wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:32 am I consider actual facts rather than reading the Daily Mail. As it stands right now, the roadmap advertised is still in place until we are specifically told it is not.

I asked a simple question.

I can't be certain, but I don't think anyone from the cabinet reads/posts on here, so you'll just have to wait for a statement from the cabinet to tell you if there's any intention to change the current plan.

I'm still waiting for someone saying it's all the darkies fault and Jobbo giving it full left woke. Unfortunately it appears in certain hot spots the uncomfortable truth is a category of citizens are getting ill. They haven't had a jab.

Saying you're waiting for someone else to say the thing you really want to say before saying it isn't the smart trick you think it is.

Broccers wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:14 pm

Rich B wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:38 am

Broccers wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:34 am

I asked a simple question.

I can't be certain, but I don't think anyone from the cabinet reads/posts on here, so you'll just have to wait for a statement from the cabinet to tell you if there's any intention to change the current plan.

I'm still waiting for someone saying it's all the darkies fault and Jobbo giving it full left woke. Unfortunately it appears in certain hot spots the uncomfortable truth is a category of citizens are getting ill. They haven't had a jab.

Fuck me. I don't often comment, and I particularly don't on things like this, but well done for confirming Jobbo's own arguments about your racism. I don't think I've heard that word used for 20 years.

Blimey. No need for a comment from me, Alf Garnett.

KevH18 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:27 pm

Broccers wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:14 pm

Rich B wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:38 am I can't be certain, but I don't think anyone from the cabinet reads/posts on here, so you'll just have to wait for a statement from the cabinet to tell you if there's any intention to change the current plan.

I'm still waiting for someone saying it's all the darkies fault and Jobbo giving it full left woke. Unfortunately it appears in certain hot spots the uncomfortable truth is a category of citizens are getting ill. They haven't had a jab.

Fuck me. I don't often comment, and I particularly don't on things like this, but well done for confirming Jobbo's own arguments about your racism. I don't think I've heard that word used for 20 years.

Just lit the paper. It's absolutely true people are all of a sudden pointing fingers at communities. Probably wrong to do that.

GG. wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 2:34 pm But to be clear - what you are referring to as inconclusive is only evidence of increased transmission and a reversal of the downward trend of infections.

There (so far as I'm aware), is NO evidence that this variant renders the current vaccines ineffective or will lead to an increase in serious cases or deaths, outside of concerns re vaccine hesitancy among vulnerable groups in certain communities presenting a localised (political and public health) issue?

So still no good basis to revert to a general lockdown/delay lifting of remaining restrictions any further.

I’m not sure there is even evidence of increased transmission within the UK.

But on the other hand, the working age population of the UK isn’t fully vaccinated (what, no more than 50%) and they are the majority who will be congregating, either in work or socially. So you would expect transmission through this age group, with mortality impact on the more vulnerable in that age category and those in higher age groups who either refused their vaccine or were not fully protected by it.

How much less that impact will be, I am not sure. There is potential for an exponential spread still. Once we have vaccinated most of that working age population then things can be more relaxed. We're not there yet but it's not far off as we've lowered the lower age limit to 36 today.

You lock down early or you lock down for longer. I just think it’s worth being cautious before we work out if we should lock down or not. There’s still time right now so we might as well let the evidence develop.

Explosive Newt wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:31 pm But on the other hand, the working age population of the UK isn’t fully vaccinated (what, no more than 50%) and they are the majority who will be congregating, either in work or socially. So you would expect transmission through this age group, with mortality impact on the more vulnerable in that age category and those in higher age groups who either refused their vaccine or were not fully protected by it.

How much less that impact will be, I am not sure. There is potential for an exponential spread still. Once we have vaccinated most of that working age population then things can be more relaxed.

You lock down early or you lock down for longer. I just think it’s worth being cautious before we work out if we should lock down or not. There’s still time right now so we might as well let the evidence develop.

The sub-65 working age population you're referring to accounts for 10% of all deaths and talking that in itself is disingenuous as the vast majority of 50+ will have had both jabs and most of the 40-50 year olds will have been given at least one jab which confers significant levels of immunity to serious disease. 50% reduction in transmission and eighty percent reduction in the (already small for that cohort) risk of death after one jab.

So the cohort of the under 45s is really what you would focus on as the unvaccinated rump and they account for only a few hundred deaths in total. On that basis unless some different information arises to what I've seen so far, I don't think there is any evidence to reasonably suggest a significant upswing in serious illness or deaths, which is the absolute minimum of what should be required for any further local or national lockdowns.

I know 12 weeks between Jabs is the norm but is there any major issue if this slips to 13 or 14 weeks ??

The MIL was due her second one last week and her surgery is saying they're out of supplies ? I can't really find much on line for Longer than 12 weeks

GG. wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:43 pm

Explosive Newt wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 3:31 pm But on the other hand, the working age population of the UK isn’t fully vaccinated (what, no more than 50%) and they are the majority who will be congregating, either in work or socially. So you would expect transmission through this age group, with mortality impact on the more vulnerable in that age category and those in higher age groups who either refused their vaccine or were not fully protected by it.

How much less that impact will be, I am not sure. There is potential for an exponential spread still. Once we have vaccinated most of that working age population then things can be more relaxed.

You lock down early or you lock down for longer. I just think it’s worth being cautious before we work out if we should lock down or not. There’s still time right now so we might as well let the evidence develop.

The sub-65 working age population you're referring to accounts for 10% of all deaths and talking that in itself is disingenuous as the vast majority of 50+ will have had both jabs and most of the 40-50 year olds will have been given at least one jab which confers significant levels of immunity to serious disease. 50% reduction in transmission and eighty percent reduction in the (already small for that cohort) risk of death after one jab.

So the cohort of the under 45s is really what you would focus on as the unvaccinated rump and they account for only a few hundred deaths in total. On that basis unless some different information arises to what I've seen so far, I don't think there is any evidence to reasonably suggest a significant upswing in serious illness or deaths, which is the absolute minimum of what should be required for any further local or national lockdowns.

This assumes full vaccine uptake in the older cohorts (variable) and full protection by two doses (probably nearer 95%). Endemic spread in the younger population will leech into this age group, causing morbidity (which clogs up the NHS) and mortality (which doesn't but is subjectively bad). It's all extrapolation right now. I'm willing to wait and see which way the data goes before committing but we aren't out of the woods yet.

dinny_g wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:05 pm I know 12 weeks between Jabs is the norm but is there any major issue if this slips to 13 or 14 weeks ??

The MIL was due her second one last week and her surgery is saying they're out of supplies ? I can't really find much on line for Longer than 12 weeks

No evidence but probably makes little difference. In general, the longer you wait between jabs, the greater the long term protection. There is some data on this from other types of vaccines but not covid ones, although there is no reason to think they would be any different.

Cheers newt - really appreciate your comment!

dinny_g wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:22 pm Cheers newt - really appreciate your comment!

Np. It's nice to feel useful in a professional capacity!

As I write, the regional data looks like things are plateauing in hotspot areas like Bolton and Bedford, so perhaps the hypothesis of it being detection of imported cases rather than spread is right....

Bedford is a bit close to home for my liking!

If it is imported cases, I presume it explodes locally and then hopefully between immunity and testing you get on top of it and it fades. With a half decent uptake of vaccines you've at least got half a chance of containing it combined with a local ramp up of testing.

2nd jab appointment booked for the 6th. Happy days.

First jab booked for next week

They seem to be getting down the age ranges pretty quickly.

I had mine on Tuesday, a sore arm and a big case of the shits later and I was good to go.

Dave!

I'm booked for a week on wed, trying to rearrange though as they've booked it at the other end of the city despite me changing surgery before I called them.

GG. wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 10:17 am First jab booked for next week

They seem to be getting down the age ranges pretty quickly.

Me too, they’re down to 34+ age group now