OV9

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:54 pm I'm sure Putin would be more than willing to sign up to those terms!

Putin won't be president...

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:59 pm

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:54 pm I'm sure Putin would be more than willing to sign up to those terms!

Putin won't be president...

Do you know something we don't?

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:25 pm

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:59 pm

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:54 pm I'm sure Putin would be more than willing to sign up to those terms!

Putin won't be president...

Do you know something we don't?

It's worth following this guy on Twitter. He's not been wrong yet with his predictions of where advances will take place and how:

It's interesting, but seems like there's a lot of permutations. Maybe Ukraine are running their offensive off his thread, that would be funny.

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:16 pm It's interesting, but seems like there's a lot of permutations. Maybe Ukraine are running their offensive off his thread, that would be funny.

Even he makes it clear that they Ukrainians are using the same tactics over and over again, and they're straight from the war games playbook. Which only serves to further highlight just how inept Ru are.

I had to lol at this in particular

Russia is a nation of 150mil or so people. It just seems impossible to comprehend that they wouldn't have strategists who could understand and counter a simple military manoeuvre though. Mind you, on the basis of my work with large formerly public and presently public sector organisations, it is perfectly possible for big organisations to become seriously inept!

I know that the Ukrainian people have suffered a lot, and media messages are carefully managed, but it is surprising how successful Ukraine have been in their counter offensive. Just makes you feel like there's more at play.

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:57 pm Russia is a nation of 150mil or so people. It just seems impossible to comprehend that they wouldn't have strategists who could understand and counter a simple military manoeuvre though.

I expect they can see exactly what strategy is being deployed against them - but they they will need to have appropriate resources / supplies / motivation if they want be able to prevent it.

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:25 pm

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:59 pm

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:54 pm I'm sure Putin would be more than willing to sign up to those terms!

Putin won't be president...

Do you know something we don't?

I overhead some pigeons talking near Red Square. They were saying "coup, coup".

Will Putin leaving end the war though? It seems like a lot of his potential successors hold even more extremist views and they’re all from the same KGB/FSB family.

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:24 pm

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:25 pm

Sundayjumper wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:59 pm
Putin won't be president...

Do you know something we don't?

I overhead some pigeons talking near Red Square. They were saying "coup, coup".

Mito Man wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 4:34 pm Will Putin leaving end the war though? It seems like a lot of his potential successors hold even more extremist views and they’re all from the same KGB/FSB family.

I presume a lot of power is held in the circle of oligarchs who have lost billions due to this war and the sanctions as well though, they will want someone who will get them back in with their cash cows in the West. Could be a bit of a stand off.

He'll fall 90ft from the window of his subterranean bunker.

duncs500 wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:58 pm I know that the Ukrainian people have suffered a lot, and media messages are carefully managed, but it is surprising how successful Ukraine have been in their counter offensive. Just makes you feel like there's more at play.

Accurate intelligence being a serious force multiplier I think Western armaments are just the public face of support for Ukraine.

Similarly the logistics and maintenance support coming from neighbouring countries.

Contrast with what we know about Russian chain of command and their logistics.

Crimea beauty queen fined for singing a pro-Ukrainian song:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63136589

Story is a non-story, but look at the state of it.

Ukraine have everything at the moment. Moral, supplies, weapons and momentum. Russia are fcked and they know it.

However, the way I see this panning out is that Ru are ejected from Ukraine with Crimea becoming the last stand. As the battle for Crimea rages, or soon after, Putin (who is cornered and defeated at this point) orders a tactical nuclear attack somewhere in Ukraine. Not because (as has been noted) it will be able to make any difference to his war or his chances of success, but as a final 'fck you' to the 'Nazis and the West'. At that point USA is good to it's word and sinks the entire Black Sea fleet and likely strikes at any remaining Ru hardware in Ukraine.

Putin's losses become too much and he is deposed in some sort of coup. Possibly suicided somehow too.

Medvedev or similar take over, make shouty comments but ultimately retreat to lick their wounds and count their losses.

Three cheers for Zelensky and the west. Russia becomes a pariah for the next 30 years. The end.

I honestly think if RU launched a nuke, there's more chance of it dropping out of the sky over RU than over UKR.

The real kicker is whether it'll be fully armed by that point....

Fairly obviously I don’t fancy a nuclear war much, but I would like to see what sort of state Russias arsenal is in and whether any of them actually work

Morale in the Ukraine army seems to be so high - I guess as well as having something to fight for that they believe in, they seem to be relishing being the underdog and amazingly seem to be getting stronger and stronger with every passing week.