OV9

@Sundayjumper

It's a fake translation. For satire presumably.

Within every joke there is a truth.

Just an interesting piece of information that confirms what I and others previously suspected:

I met up with one of the ex-soldiers I used to work with last week, who told me that two of his close friends in Dutch special forces are on active operations in Ukraine. Not training Ukrainian troops, active operations.

Given that the Netherlands hasn't exactly been massively high-profile in its support for Ukraine, if Dutch special forces are present and active, so are other nations.

I don't think this comes as a massive surprise - did anyone really think the sinking of the Moskva was either a training accident or a lucky hit from land-based Ukrainian anti-ship missile?

Sundayjumper wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:42 am Within every joke there is a truth.

Or more appropriately to this thread, the Russian version of this idiom is "in every joke there's a little bit of joke"

This is getting more crazy by the day. Miles long queues of Russian men trying to flee the country... someone shooting the coordinator at a conscription session... the coordinators telling them they'll get armor and uniform and that's it - go and get first aid kits from cars, buy/scrounge cheap sanitary products for field dressings... and no training, straight to the front line with you.

Ascender wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:57 am This is getting more crazy by the day. Miles long queues of Russian men trying to flee the country...

And a "recruitment" centre reportedly being set up on the border with Georgia so that draft papers can be handed to the people trying to leave, and send them back.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63050880

No idea if genuine…

Actually, what is potentially the most worrying thing is if it really was those pesky Russians sabotaging the gas pipeline... Although it was done in international waters, that could be something which could escalate quickly if they have other hijinks planned..

mik wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:27 am No idea if genuine…

Not seen that one but have heard similar reports on social media. If troops who have been in Ukraine for months as part of the planned first raid were poorly trained, equipped and resupplied, you can only imagine what these reinforcements are going to have to deal with.

Ascender wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:47 pm Actually, what is potentially the most worrying thing is if it really was those pesky Russians sabotaging the gas pipeline... Although it was done in international waters, that could be something which could escalate quickly if they have other hijinks planned..

When you have US and European forces in the area for Baltops 2022 exercise in June https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops-22 ... echnology/ in the specific area of the pipeline where it's been hit it's not beyond possibility that they could place a charge via drone under cover of an exercise and then detonate them remotely at their leisure at the correct time.

Definitely not clear cut on who 'dun' it but the US had both motive plus seemingly ability (tech) and opportunity.

Judging by the rest of the operation and evidence cited in this thread it would seem that Russia is both badly equipped and incompetent at best, so planting and setting off charges undersea might seem technically beyond their abilities.

Isn't Biden even on video as saying "trust me, we could absolutely do it" when questioned about the possilbilty of "disrupting" NS1 or 2?

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:26 am Isn't Biden even on video as saying "trust me, we could absolutely do it" when questioned about the possilbilty of "disrupting" NS1 or 2?

Apparently so, not watched the actual videos of it (at the office today) so I didn't mention it. If there is a video it will probably be glossed over much like his shutting down of the investigation of Burisma video as a nothing to see here.

Might be a stupid question, but what would the US's motive be?

Presumably to reduce Russian state gas revenues. if they can't supply, they can't charge. If they can't charge there's less money for the russian economy.

I suspect the methods biden was referring to was by doing backdoor diplomatic shenanigans (he's not new to world politics after all) rather than sending depth charges down though

duncs500 wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:18 am Might be a stupid question, but what would the US's motive be?

Also in conjunction to what Beany mentions to stop any German capitulation during the winter, if the pipeline is non-operational they can't decide to release some sanctions to open the taps.

Anyway apparently no objects were detected in the area at the time so it's not a torpedo from a sub.

From my perspective it looks like a 2 finger salute at Russia, as it was sabotaged on the same day that the Norway pipeline opened, like 'fuck you' we're getting gas from them now. From a Russian perspective it would have made far more sense to sabotage that pipeline rather than their own.

Exactly, the quote was in relation to sanctions to stop NS2 completing, and that happened months ago. NS2 has never been operational.

NS1, however, although everybody knows no contract with Russia is worth the paper it's written on, they had contractual obligations to supply gas through NS1. The ploy of shutting it off in the hope Germany/Europe would beg for a settlement didn't work. Failing to meet those obligations is good reason for more sanctions on Russia. Putin is too arrogant to back down. Scorched earth policy. Now that "someone" has blown up the pipeline, they can claim force majeure and it's all a moot point.

drcarlos wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 10:23 am From my perspective it looks like a 2 finger salute at Russia, as it was sabotaged on the same day that the Norway pipeline opened, like 'fuck you' we're getting gas from them now. From a Russian perspective it would have made far more sense to sabotage that pipeline rather than their own.

On the contrary. Attacking the new pipeline would be a clear act of war against Norway & Poland and Putin's not quite ready for that yet. It's a warning that they might start attaching other underwater civilian infrastructure. There's a lot of internet under the Atlantic and that's a BIG place to play hide-and-seek.

NS1 is Russian owned and the damaged part is in international waters so ("legally") they can do what they like with it having already turned it off.

I've had a thought, and I think it's my own thought, I'm sure I've not read it anywhere, so I'm going to put it out there. Regarding the eventual peace agreement. Russian surrender & complete withdrawal from mainland Ukraine has to be a given. Crimea is the tricky one.

So here's my suggestion: Ukraine owns Crimea but leases it to Russia at a punitive rate, those monies representing war reparations.

I'm sure Putin would be more than willing to sign up to those terms!

I imagine future agreements between Ukraine and Russia are as likely as between the Koreas.