OV9

What are people's best guesses on this evening's vote?

Paddy Power seem to be quoting the most favourable odds on a loss by around 200...

I think it will lose, obviously, but not by quite as much as expected (say more like 100) and she’ll use that as her excuse for not resigning as she’ll say she almost won MPs over.

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:14 pm I think it will lose, obviously, but not by quite as much as expected (say more like 100) and she’ll use that as her excuse for not resigning as she’ll say she almost won MPs over.

That. Lose by 80.

I'd say better than expected but not by much. I think it'll be a loss by a margin of 180 something. She's never going to resign though - clearly she's been proven to be completely pathological by this point.

When she loses will Corbyn not go for a no confidence vote or has he already started that, been busy with new job and struggling to keep track!

Zonda_ wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:54 pm When she loses will Corbyn not go for a no confidence vote or has he already started that, been busy with new job and struggling to keep track!

He’s confirmed he’ll table the motion and it’ll probably be heard tomorrow. It’s unlikely that May will lose the confidence motion.

I think she will lose, maybe only by 30/40, but that’s putting too strong a slant on my feelings about the outcome. I really don’t know what’s going to happen.

If she loses by less than 100 votes, I think she will be able to go back to the EU for some small sweeteners/rewording of certain paragraphs. I believe it’ll be ~175 which will make that a lot harder.

It’s interesting that May’s offer is actually bringing people from both sides together; unfortunately, it seems to be against her proposal.

I don’t like TM’s deal, but don’t want to lose her as PM. I wonder how many abstentions we’ll see this evening?

No lobby looking quite busy

Loss by a majority of 230

So, that's a NO then!

IanF wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:31 pm If she loses by less than 100 votes, I think she will be able to go back to the EU for some small sweeteners/rewording of certain paragraphs. I believe it’ll be ~175 which will make that a lot harder.

It’s interesting that May’s offer is actually bringing people from both sides together; unfortunately, it seems to be against her proposal.

I don’t like TM’s deal, but don’t want to lose her as PM. I wonder how many abstentions we’ll see this evening?

best of a totally shite lot?

Fucking hell, that’s an absolute mauling.

Gavin wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:40 pm

IanF wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:31 pm If she loses by less than 100 votes, I think she will be able to go back to the EU for some small sweeteners/rewording of certain paragraphs. I believe it’ll be ~175 which will make that a lot harder.

It’s interesting that May’s offer is actually bringing people from both sides together; unfortunately, it seems to be against her proposal.

I don’t like TM’s deal, but don’t want to lose her as PM. I wonder how many abstentions we’ll see this evening?

best of a totally shite lot?

Yes, from both sides.

Corbyn’s tone betrayed his intentions...

No confidence motion tabled.

Think Corbyn has made a mistake. The no confidence motion will bring the Conservative Party back together under TM. I don't see how TM can now manage an effective government (I know!), but I still think she's the best choice. Pretty sorry state of affairs.

I think this will end up with a general election fought by a Tory party led by someone other than Theresa, together with a delay to the exit date.

I’m not certain of that, but I’m certain of one thing: the uncertainty continues.

I think you’re right Jobbo..,

Jobbo wrote: Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:55 pm I think this will end up with a general election fought by a Tory party led by someone other than Theresa, together with a delay to the exit date.

I’m not certain of that, but I’m certain of one thing: the uncertainty continues.

Quite, although currently we have TM, who would like to remain, leading the Government to leave the EU and an Opposition lead by a Eurosceptic, that would have to promote an alternative to leaving: I don't think a GE would improve the process.

Ofcourse, Labour would use the Trump-like promises with no idea how to achieve anything, but just wanting to be in power, and then we'd probably look back on this time as the "good ol' days!"

I completely agree with your last paragraph! Still, worldwide politics are quite interesting these days!...