OV9

Queues around the block to get to the gun store make me glad I'm in the uk not the USA

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:15 am No herd immunity actually protects weaker members of society as people who can’t get immunised (illness, allergies to the vaccine etc) are very unlikely to get an illness that can’t travel through the larger population. It’s why the anti vax movement is so bad. Not getting vaccinated when you’re able weakens the herd immunity.

You’re thinking of survival of the fittest

there is no vaccine though.

integrale_evo wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:24 am Queues around the block to get to the gun store make me glad I'm in the uk not the USA

Yeah, I found that a bit scarey too

Rich B wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:27 am

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:15 am No herd immunity actually protects weaker members of society as people who can’t get immunised (illness, allergies to the vaccine etc) are very unlikely to get an illness that can’t travel through the larger population. It’s why the anti vax movement is so bad. Not getting vaccinated when you’re able weakens the herd immunity.

You’re thinking of survival of the fittest

there is no vaccine though.

Yes I know, that’s why the idea to rely on herd immunity wasn’t going to work.

The best plan just now is to isolate and contain people who’re sick as best you can until a vaccine is developed then mass vaccinate to build the herd immunity.

When people recover from the virus they will have some immunity - they should be cooked and shared amongst as many people as possible so we all gain this immunity. God told me.

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:37 am

Rich B wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:27 am

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:15 am No herd immunity actually protects weaker members of society as people who can’t get immunised (illness, allergies to the vaccine etc) are very unlikely to get an illness that can’t travel through the larger population. It’s why the anti vax movement is so bad. Not getting vaccinated when you’re able weakens the herd immunity.

You’re thinking of survival of the fittest

there is no vaccine though.

Yes I know, that’s why the idea to rely on herd immunity wasn’t going to work.

The best plan just now is to isolate and contain people who’re sick as best you can until a vaccine is developed then mass vaccinate to build the herd immunity.

Yeah the choice is:

a) Let everyone catch it and let us build up herd immunity naturally (downside: 1m + deaths in this country alone)
2) Develop a safe vaccine and give it to everyone (downside: life goes on hold until you do it)

I think the weak should isolate (and supported to do so), and the rest should just carry on normal life (with a bit more caution). You decide which category you sit in.

Obviously this strategy would likely put a LOT of strain on the nhs/etc... But at least it would allow the world to keep turning.

But the more you let it spread, the more "weak" catch it because isolation isn't perfect. If everyone isolates, fewer people catch it, and fewer people die from it.

2 days running we've seen a drop in the number of new cases. Early days, but that looks pretty good. Deaths are still rising exponentially, though.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:47 am But the more you let it spread, the more "weak" catch it because isolation isn't perfect. If everyone isolates, fewer people catch it, and fewer people die from it.

Yep, until you stop isolating - People can’t survive long without money for food and sooner of later people will get desperate and not sit at home doing as they’re told.

There’s no perfect answer here - there’s not even a particularly good one!

Rich B wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:44 am I think the weak should isolate (and supported to do so), and the rest should just carry on normal life (with a bit more caution). You decide which category you sit in.

Obviously this strategy would likely put a LOT of strain on the nhs/etc... But at least it would allow the world to keep turning.

The problem is that the more strain you put the health service under the more people die. Bear in mind that they can’t just deal with this, they have all the things they usually deal with as well.

If they’re less able to keep up with all the other sick people they’ll start dying too.

This is where the obsession with paring services back to the last degree is going to bite us as well. The NHS has no breathing space to deal with an emergency like this.

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:52 am 2 days running we've seen a drop in the number of new cases. Early days, but that looks pretty good. Deaths are still rising exponentially, though.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Yeah, because 2 days of only testing hospital patients

Mito Man wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:57 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:52 am 2 days running we've seen a drop in the number of new cases. Early days, but that looks pretty good. Deaths are still rising exponentially, though.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Yeah, because 2 days of only testing hospital patients

We'll know when the deaths don't drop after a lag of 3 weeks.

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:52 am 2 days running we've seen a drop in the number of new cases. Early days, but that looks pretty good. Deaths are still rising exponentially, though.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

I wished I hadn't looked at that, scary numbers from Italy.

South Korea has by far the lowest death rate, and the US has a low death rate too.

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:37 am

Rich B wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:27 am

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:15 am No herd immunity actually protects weaker members of society as people who can’t get immunised (illness, allergies to the vaccine etc) are very unlikely to get an illness that can’t travel through the larger population. It’s why the anti vax movement is so bad. Not getting vaccinated when you’re able weakens the herd immunity.

You’re thinking of survival of the fittest

there is no vaccine though.

Yes I know, that’s why the idea to rely on herd immunity wasn’t going to work.

The best plan just now is to isolate and contain people who’re sick as best you can until a vaccine is developed then mass vaccinate to build the herd immunity.

I actually don't think that's how it will pan out. We're already seeing successful application of existing anti-viral drugs cocktails for treatment. Apparently the plasma from recovered patients can also help to treat others.

I suspect what will actually happen is that we go into lockdown for as long as is practical so that we can gear up our health services and drugs supplies, and then we'll see a softening of the lockdown so we can let it run a bit wild again. Then we'll hopefully be able to successfully and quckly treat those who are the worst affected.

Waiting for a vaccine at the current forecast timescales simply seems too far away to be practical for keeping everyone under tight lockdown. People would lose their shit and just start leaving the house again.

jamie (@gnuman1979) Tweeted:
Quarantine day 6. https://t.co/er652Oy3Ki

You don’t have to keep everyone under a strict lockdown. You control the spread by testing and isolating people who have it.

Also as you and Mik have said people who have had it will have some immunity.

Once we’re through the worst of the initial infections you can loosen some of the lockdown controls.

ZedLeg wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:18 am You don’t have to keep everyone under a strict lockdown. You control the spread by testing and isolating people who have it.

But they won’t necessarily be showing any symptoms, so there’s no way of conclusively identifying them.