Coronavirus

[Swervin_Mervin]

So...
"Now is the time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others and to stop all unnecessary travel," the prime minister says.

That was a quick u-turn. Fucking idiots the lot of them. 10 year old could see that was a crap call originally...

Calm the fvxk down.

[Mito Man]

THE WORLD IS ENDING.

[Sundayjumper]

So is my teaching at a college essential or not?

Are you producing more Mitoboys ?

[Mito Man]

35-50k undiagnosed cases estimated which is what has changed in the model. It was on 10k just at the end of last week.
Doomed as a 520d in doom blue I tell you.

[NotoriousREV]

As of this morning, they’d tested 44,105 people, of which 1,543 were positive. So, if that sample of people was representative of the U.K. population, that would mean 3.5% of us would have COVID-19, which would be 2.3 million cases.

Except, this sample isn’t representative because they’re only testing people with the severest symptoms and/or have been in contact with someone confirmed to be infected, so it will be far less prevalent in the general population.

[Sundayjumper]

We've just been given the instruction to WFH until further notice.

We've also been given an instruction to NOT use the VPN to access stuff until further notice because of "network resilience" or something.

Sounds like I'm on gardening leave for a while !

[Orange Cola]

As of this morning, they’d tested 44,105 people, of which 1,543 were positive. So, if that sample of people was representative of the U.K. population, that would mean 3.5% of us would have COVID-19, which would be 2.3 million cases.

Except, this sample isn’t representative because they’re only testing people with the severest symptoms and/or have been in contact with someone confirmed to be infected, so it will be far less prevalent in the general population.

I get what you’re saying, but the gov reckon 35k-50k already have it. I hope you’re right and fvck all people actually contract the virus and we end up with an accelerated mass vaccination prog instead. I fear that won’t happen though.

[Matty]

I wouldn't be surprised if that 35-50k figure was true. I've heard from various friends-of-friends who have various COVID/Cold/Flu symptoms and have never reported or tested for it, and there's quite a few stories coming forward about people who have it (confirmed) and yet aren't showing any symptoms.

They've started human testing of a vaccine, but still reckon its 6 months+ away.

Edit - they've closed one of the schools by me as one of the kids is positive but asymptomatic. Won't be long now until more follow suit, I've spoken to a couple of headteachers today who claim attendance is well down due to concerned parents...

[speedingfine]

I wouldn't be surprised if that 35-50k figure was true. I've heard from various friends-of-friends who have various COVID/Cold/Flu symptoms and have never reported or tested for it, and there's quite a few stories coming forward about people who have it (confirmed) and yet aren't showing any symptoms.

They've started human testing of a vaccine, but still reckon its 6 months+ away.

Edit - they've closed one of the schools by me as one of the kids is positive but asymptomatic. Won't be long now until more follow suit, I've spoken to a couple of headteachers today who claim attendance is well down due to concerned parents...

18 months for vaccine I'm afraid!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... munisation

[Swervin_Mervin]

Anti-viral drugs are likely to play a bigger part in treating patients rather than a vaccine for prevention it seems.

[Mito Man]

Well looks like some places are already filling up quick. Either get it now or try and ride it out for a few months.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus ... t-11958542
520d doomed I tell you.

[jamcg]

Every adult volunteer registered with the Uk scout association received the same email from Tim Kidd, the Uk chief commissioner- “all face-to-face Scout meetings, activities and events must be suspended from tomorrow, Tuesday, 17 March 2020. This suspension applies to young people and adults, and will be until further notice“

[Gavin]

Every adult volunteer registered with the Uk scout association received the same email from Tim Kidd, the Uk chief commissioner- “all face-to-face Scout meetings, activities and events must be suspended from tomorrow, Tuesday, 17 March 2020. This suspension applies to young people and adults, and will be until further notice“

We were discussing it as a group and had decided to stop anyway. One of our leaders is a GP and the other a Consultant so they are mega busy with preparation at the moment.

I have worked from home for 4 years, today is the first day I am supposed to start in the office. No idea what the plan is but speaking to the director yesterday he was trying to work out how to get most WFH so there is only one person per office.

[NotoriousREV]

The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".
A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.
The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.
Its calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.
Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.
However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.
Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.
The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.
We are in this for the long haul.

Pretty fucking bleak...

[mr_jon]

Wow, we're all screwed then. Health and jobs.

[Mito Man]

Think the first person to go crazy from social distancing is my dog. He is quite sociable and I take him to most places with me as I specifically look for dog friendly ones. But just 3 days of being at home and he’s turned into a nutcase. Won’t sleep through the night, demands to go out every few hours, won’t stop making that irritating whining sound. The stupid prick doesn’t like walking locally either, get 100 metres from the house or flat and he does his job and walks back - apparently it’s not a walk if it’s not exploring a new place
Little shit.

[ZedLeg]

The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".
A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.
The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.
Its calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.
Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.
However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.
Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.
The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.
We are in this for the long haul.

Pretty fucking bleak...

Obviously not an expert on epidemic modelling but that’s basically what I thought would happen tbh.

Historically it’s taken a long time to get through these types of global pandemics and trying to short cut it was always going to be a disaster.

There’s never been an example of a national population gaining herd immunity without vaccination as far as I know.

The idea was bad.

[Rich B]

Surely herd immunity is just a euphemism for letting the weak get picked off?

[Sundayjumper]

Surely herd immunity is just a euphemism for letting the weak get picked off?

Seems OK to me.

But TBF, I’m a sociopath, so don’t put any faith in my opinions on this.

[ZedLeg]

No herd immunity actually protects weaker members of society as people who can’t get immunised (illness, allergies to the vaccine etc) are very unlikely to get an illness that can’t travel through the larger population. It’s why the anti vax movement is so bad. Not getting vaccinated when you’re able weakens the herd immunity.

You’re thinking of survival of the fittest