OV9

I agree with the sentiment of sorting out a solution to keeping things open, but unfortunately lockdown's only purpose is to keep the NHS from collapse.

As soon as the press starts reporting on people dying by the thousand at home, outside hospitals etc then the not locking down arguments will lose merit pretty sharpish. I don't really see that the government have any choice. Be interested to hear the explosive newt's position on this one.

Locking down earlier for less time would possibly be wise in comparison but that's a whole other argument

Damned if you do damned if you don’t really. However the dithering is a bit unnecessary - if they were going to lockdown then they should have done it weeks ago so that it would have been shorter and ended before Christmas.

Mito Man wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:06 pm Damned if you do damned if you don’t really. However the dithering is a bit unnecessary - if they were going to lockdown then they should have done it weeks ago so that it would have been shorter and ended before Christmas.

It will be interesting to see if Wales fare better as a result.

I've actually looked at the total number of deaths on the ONS site like he said we should. He said it was less than last year and normal, but there's Actually been 63k more deaths this year than the equivalent 43 weeks last year (495K v 432k).

And to add to that, the Difference in weekly numbers of deaths is increasing in line with all the graphs we've seen going up in October.

People forget that keeping things shut and keeping people apart helps prevent the spread of other contagious illnesses. The one now could in part be to help slow the spread of flu before it really starts to take hold as well as corona.

There’s nothing to stop you catching both flu and Covid at the same time, or with some overlap. Flu can hit most normal people pretty hard for a short time, even if they would normally brush off corona I can imagine a dose of both could be pretty nasty.

This whole city testing that they're on about trying in Liverpool could be good, as long as it's done over a relatively short period.

Not sure. Yeadon suggested the false positive rate for the PCR test due to lack of expertise in those administering it plus the inherent vagaries in the test (dead virus, etc.) is in the single percent to 5 percent range. Testing the whole of liverpool will therefore show between 5-25k cases that do not in fact exist.

Rich B wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:02 pm I've actually looked at the total number of deaths on the ONS site like he said we should. He said it was less than last year and normal, but there's Actually been 63k more deaths this year than the equivalent 43 weeks last year (495K v 432k).

And to add to that, the Difference in weekly numbers of deaths is increasing in line with all the graphs we've seen going up in October.

Was it not the 5yr average?

Foz wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:15 pm

Rich B wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:02 pm I've actually looked at the total number of deaths on the ONS site like he said we should. He said it was less than last year and normal, but there's Actually been 63k more deaths this year than the equivalent 43 weeks last year (495K v 432k).

And to add to that, the Difference in weekly numbers of deaths is increasing in line with all the graphs we've seen going up in October.

Was it not the 5yr average?

As at 23rd Oct deaths are above the 5yr average looking at the ONS site

In Victoria they initially gave a date when lockdown would finish, but within the first week it was changed to when the 14 day rolling ratio of cases dropped below a certain level.

Third Step – regional Victoria moved to the Third Step at 11.59pm on 16 September. Metropolitan Melbourne moved to the Third Step at 11.59pm on 27 October.

Last Step – Victoria moves to the Last Step when there are no new cases for 14 days in Victoria.

COVID Normal – Victoria moves to COVID Normal when there are no new cases for 28 days, no active cases in Victoria (state-wide) and no outbreaks of concern in other states or territories.

Oh look figures down already and now we are all locked in to save the nhs even tho it doesnt need it

England's sea of green: Covid infections had dropped in 82 of the country's 149 local authorities (and in more than half of London) BEFORE lockdown even started

Fail link to wind up the lefties

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ities.html

integrale_evo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:41 pm People forget that keeping things shut and keeping people apart helps prevent the spread of other contagious illnesses. The one now could in part be to help slow the spread of flu before it really starts to take hold as well as corona.

Lockdown near eradicated flu down here:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... o-lockdown

Peterlplp wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:55 am

integrale_evo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:41 pm People forget that keeping things shut and keeping people apart helps prevent the spread of other contagious illnesses. The one now could in part be to help slow the spread of flu before it really starts to take hold as well as corona.

Lockdown near eradicated flu down here:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... o-lockdown

Interesting, but makes me wonder whether immunity to various illnesses will be well down this year, so some will bounce back with a vengeance next year. Nature seems to find a way to balance things out, so you might find the death rate creeps up post covid as other things do for the people that avoided it due to lockdown.

Possibly, but with the data from the less restricted southern hemisphere countries flu seasons coming to an end now and the northern hemisphere season about to kick off our 2021 flu vaccine can be very accurate. Around 30% of the population got it this year and that was before shit fully hit the fan so I'd imagine that more people will get it next year.

How many other diseases do we want which we build up immunity to? Flu strain varies every year, catching it one year doesn’t make you less likely to the next, same with common coughts and colds.

About the only thing I can remember your parents wanted you to get while you were young was chicken pox, but I don’t know if that’s even a thing any more.

The more worrying thing is if all the tin foil hat fake corona weirdos start giving the antivaxers some traction.

Forecasts now quietly downgraded...https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/1 ... irst-wave/

So really this lockdown is too late and bit pointless now

Been into town today, you wouldn't know we were on lockdown, very busy. Very different to last lockdown, looks like many more businesses are making a good go at it this time.

We've been notified of the first confirmed case in our school. Not in either of the boys' bubbles, but on Monday there'll be a whole form missing.