Coronavirus

[Ascender]

It seems to be the ultimate taboo at the moment because there's simply no good alternative option, but I can't help but think all the various initiatives and restrictions don't really mean anything whilst we have schools open.

- Pubs opened in July. Cases still fell.
- People have been mixing in smaller groups all summer. Cases fell
-Schools open in September and boom - An explosion in cases.

Bizarre rules about opening pubs for certain hours and whatnot aren't going to stop people going home and being in contact with their children, who have mixed with hundreds of other children all day.

Have schools caused a boom in cases? I thought they would, but it doesn't appear to be the case up here at all based on what we've seen at our kids' high school and heard from parents of children at other local schools.

what other significant occurrence happened at the beginning of September to cause cases to rise from a few hundred a day to tens of thousands a day?

I get that logic. but if that's the case, why aren't loads of kids catching it? Kids are like walking petri dishes at the best of times.

[Mito Man]

The number of asymptomatic kids is much larger than other portions of the population and those which do get symptoms seem to get it later. Unless you’re testing every kid in the school on a daily basis you don’t know.

[Swervin_Mervin]

It seems to be the ultimate taboo at the moment because there's simply no good alternative option, but I can't help but think all the various initiatives and restrictions don't really mean anything whilst we have schools open.

- Pubs opened in July. Cases still fell.
- People have been mixing in smaller groups all summer. Cases fell
-Schools open in September and boom - An explosion in cases.

Bizarre rules about opening pubs for certain hours and whatnot aren't going to stop people going home and being in contact with their children, who have mixed with hundreds of other children all day.

Have schools caused a boom in cases? I thought they would, but it doesn't appear to be the case up here at all based on what we've seen at our kids' high school and heard from parents of children at other local schools.

what other significant occurrence happened at the beginning of September to cause cases to rise from a few hundred a day to tens of thousands a day?

It started to get colder

[ZedLeg]

Obviously anecdotal but both the people I know with high school age kids are currently isolating after their kids came into contact with someone who had COVID.

Different schools in different parts of the country.

[Rich B]

Have schools caused a boom in cases? I thought they would, but it doesn't appear to be the case up here at all based on what we've seen at our kids' high school and heard from parents of children at other local schools.

what other significant occurrence happened at the beginning of September to cause cases to rise from a few hundred a day to tens of thousands a day?

It started to get colder

So it's not the Extra hundred of thousands of non-socially distanced interactions, it's the temperature dropped a bit?

[Gwaredd]

Probably both to be fair.

[duncs500]

Schools, definitely the schools. It's not the pubs, leave the pubs alone!

[integrale_evo]

See what happens in Germany, they’ve closed all pubs, restaurants and entertainment and leisure facilities but not schools.

France have gone for another full national lockdown.

Not totally convinced the cold weather has a massive effect on the virus itself, other than driving people Indoors where it’s harder to distance and the virus is more likely to linger in the surrounding, plus cold damp weather more likely to lead to traditional coughs and sniffles.

During our summer when cases and deaths were low the virus was spreading quickest along the equatorial belt, not the colder parts of the Southern Hemisphere.

I reckon a large part of the current increase is the natural flow now people have got fed up and aren’t being as careful as earlier in the year along with schools and especially universities going back.

[DeskJockey]

On the lighter side, youngest (Iris) has taken to "correct" Corona virus to Corona Iris every time she hears it. Then telling us sternly "it isn't funny" when we laugh.

[Jobbo]

what other significant occurrence happened at the beginning of September to cause cases to rise from a few hundred a day to tens of thousands a day?

It started to get colder

So it's not the Extra hundred of thousands of non-socially distanced interactions, it's the temperature dropped a bit?

I saw a very readable stat a couple of weeks ago which showed the large increase in number of cases was massively within the 18-25 age range. That's not presented so nicely by the ONS, but their data for last week says something similar: "older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children." - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... lot/latest

But - the death rate is still going up, higher and faster than Chris Whitty's pessimistic prediction (200/day in November - we're at over 300/day before the end of October). I don't think it's students dying. If we have a lockdown again, surely it has to mean closing schools and universities? Will there be a measurable change in the data 4 weeks from now of the effect of half term having happened, I wonder?

[Simon]

I see the Times and the Fail are both reporting a possible lockdown next week. Said to close all but essential retail and educational settings.

Yet as Jobbo notes and Patrick Valance's age heat map showed, the highest case loads are amongst the younger generation, so they need to do the opposite. Keep retail open and help the economy whilst closing schools and unis.

[Simon]

Also look at the breakdown of numbers by UK Nation. Despite the Wales lockdown their daily numbers are getting worse, and they've done their best to keep a lot of their schooling open.

[Jobbo]

Northern Ireland and Wales must be able to provide us with plenty of data as to the effect of total lockdown - the problem is the lag. They’ll have had school half term too, but the effect will take a while to show in the figures.

My office is in South Staffs; the whole of Staffordshire moved to Tier 2 this week because of outbreaks in a couple of prisons pushing the infection rate up. There are still barely any cases in my home local authority. I can deal with everyone working from home but I’d like to be able to plan for it; finding out in the press on Friday night that there might well be a national lockdown from next week is yet another piece of evidence of the Government’s utter failure to do its job properly.

Fingers crossed the lockdown rules are clear this time - as if that’s likely

[jamcg]

Current rules do nothing, I know a large number of people going to the pub alone and socialising with many other people, despite us being tier 2, no mixing households indoors or in pubs. The local schools definitely seem to be driving numbers, one year group at a local secondary school sent 75 kids home in one day A couple of weeks ago- add to that the kids wandering the streets in groups larger than 6- Facebook alert group thingy had a picture of about 30 all walking next to each other last night- all from different schools and year groups and you’ve got a perfect method of introducing covid into different households from several different entry points.

Closing shops won’t do anything really, my wife works in our local Tesco- it’s a big shop and she works the self service checkouts, in close proximity to hundreds, if not thousands of people every shift, yet (touch wood) I’ve not heard of any Tesco staff getting covid at work, as interactions are at a minimum. Compare this to schools and I’ve heard of a few teachers now infected and my mams friend who is a dinner nanny now has it

[Ascender]

The country’s mood towards the government summed up perfectly.

[Simon]

I can't believe how we're in such desperate need of great leadership during this pandemic yet have ended up with this shit show of entitled public school amateurs.

Can't remember if I said, but a friend of my wife bumped into Boris, Carrie and Wilfred when out for a walk in their local park a few weeks ago. They were "quite charming" apparently, and were happy to pose for photos and chat for a while etc. Close protection officers kept their distance and there was no-one else around so they weren't in a hurry to leave.

The photos they sent us showed that Boris dressed like a complete slob though. Literally like a homeless man.

[Carlos]

Northern Ireland and Wales must be able to provide us with plenty of data as to the effect of total lockdown - the problem is the lag. They’ll have had school half term too, but the effect will take a while to show in the figures.

Fingers crossed the lockdown rules are clear this time - as if that’s likely

The Welsh Government announcement yesterday said it was too early to measure the benefits of a national lockdown but it was clear that the halfway house local or regional lockdowns had no effect and It was not a tactic that would be used again.

It's a great deal scarier this time round here as in spring it was generally older or unwell people I knew locally had died from it or were hospitalised. It was barely visible in the locale. This time there are families of our age we know very unwell and on occasion hospitalised.

[Rich B]

Hurry up Boris...

[Sundayjumper]

A friend of mine in Wales went to the supermarket and found the birthday card aisle closed off, but the pet supplies open.

Which is fair enough but it means that although you can't buy a get-well-soon card for your Mum, you CAN buy an advent calendar for your dog

[Mito Man]

Those graphs are looking pretty grim. Weird thought that thousands of currently healthy people will be death by Christmas.