OV9

Nefarious wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:51 am(60-100 seats doesn't seem unrealistic, despite being terrifying)

Let's just hope it suits their gearing.

Change UK (or whatever they're called this week) will win a majority.

Brexit party will steal votes from Tories but no seats. Remain vote will split between Labour/Lib Dems/Green. SNP will take all of Scotland, NI will be what it always is.

Overall: no majority. More delay and uncertainty.

All this talk of elections and stuff must mean Brexit is all sorted then, right?

JLv3.0 wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:28 am All this talk of elections and stuff must mean Brexit is all sorted then, right?

Nearly.

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:26 am Brexit party will steal votes from Tories but no seats. Remain vote will split between Labour/Lib Dems/Green. SNP will take all of Scotland, NI will be what it always is.

Overall: no majority. More delay and uncertainty.

Do you reckon then that the number of tory seats will stay about the same but with a re-division of the remainder between the other three?

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:29 am

JLv3.0 wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:28 am All this talk of elections and stuff must mean Brexit is all sorted then, right?

Nearly.

Good to hear that the plan has been executed with robotic levels of precision. I always had faith that's how it would go down anyway.

What are the benefits of Brexit again? I can never quite remember

Assume lib/lab aren't sensible enough to be planning an alliance to ensure we have a second vote, ie they don't stand against each other in marginal seats. Or is that a terrible idea as well

I fear Boris' message of 'lets get this over with, then focus on other things' will be popular with voters, certainly it's an easier message to understand than what Labour have been saying (but let's see what they propose today).

It all just seems so obvious, labour are bleating on about how they want a GE, but they’ll vote against it if it is scheduled for 14th Oct.

All the labour MPs are looking at it as a trap to get no deal or a majority. I just see it as a chance for Boris to offer them what they want, knowing they’ll have to turn it down. All without taking no deal off the table (and completely cutting the legs off any negotiations).

Nefarious wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:31 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:26 am Brexit party will steal votes from Tories but no seats. Remain vote will split between Labour/Lib Dems/Green. SNP will take all of Scotland, NI will be what it always is.

Overall: no majority. More delay and uncertainty.

Do you reckon then that the number of tory seats will stay about the same but with a re-division of the remainder between the other three?

I imagine Cheltenham would switch from Tory to Lib Dem at least; Alex Chalk hasn't been keeping his constituents happy. Not my constituency but a good barometer.

I'd love to see the MPs decide not to call an election and make Boris see things through. They haven't shown any great ability to act together but it takes 2/3 of the House to agree to an early election. The draft Bill published yesterday to prevent no deal is great.

Rich B wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:17 am All without taking no deal off the table (and completely cutting the legs off any negotiations).

No Deal is not a negotiation tool, but since the government seems not to be doing any negotiating anyway then it's a moot point.

Pete_ wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:08 am I fear Boris' message of 'lets get this over with, then focus on other things' will be popular with voters, certainly it's an easier message to understand than what Labour have been saying (but let's see what they propose today).

I know 95% of the forum know this... But as if no deal would settle things in any way shape or form... https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/i ... ssion=true

Jobbo wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:21 am

Rich B wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:17 am All without taking no deal off the table (and completely cutting the legs off any negotiations).

No Deal is not a negotiation tool, but since the government seems not to be doing any negotiating anyway then it's a moot point.

The threat of leaving on the 31st can only exist if you have a second option to agreeing a deal.

It would be an interesting GE if it happened. Hard to predict, BoJo's stance has probably saved the Cons from losing all their pro-Brexit voters to Farage. They will however probably lose a lot of the anti-Brexit voters to the Lib Dems.

Labour will probably win in their strongholds, but not claim much more.

I don't know what that would mean numbers wise, other than Lib Dem getting a boost. Some sort of fragmented parliament no doubt.

Jobbo wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:20 am
I imagine Cheltenham would switch from Tory to Lib Dem at least; Alex Chalk hasn't been keeping his constituents happy. Not my constituency but a good barometer.

Gloucester would probably swing to Labour.

You know, if there is an election going on, it wouldn't be too difficult to add another question to the ballot paper. Something like "Is Brexit a clusterfuck. Should we just sack it off and go for a pint instead?"

Should we: "go down the Winchester, have a nice cold pint and wait for all this to blow over"? Y / N

Nefarious wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:31 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:26 am Brexit party will steal votes from Tories but no seats. Remain vote will split between Labour/Lib Dems/Green. SNP will take all of Scotland, NI will be what it always is.

Overall: no majority. More delay and uncertainty.

Do you reckon then that the number of tory seats will stay about the same but with a re-division of the remainder between the other three?

I think the Tories will lose a handful, mainly to the LDs, 1 or 2 to Labour.

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:26 am Brexit party will steal votes from Tories but no seats. Remain vote will split between Labour/Lib Dems/Green. SNP will take all of Scotland, NI will be what it always is.

Overall: no majority. More delay and uncertainty.

This I reckon. I guess he's risking it on the grounds that whilst they may still only come out of it with a slim majority, crucially they may potentially replace a few rebel Remain Tories with ones that will toe the party line.

I love the idea of Parliament passing the anti-No Deal legislation and then voting against a GE. Suck on that, Boris.