OV9

240PP wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:53 pm GF works in a school in Oxfordshire and has been told, off the record, prepare for a shutdown.

But Boris has just announced schools will NOT be shutdown. So who the fuck knows..

They're in a COBRA meeting now. I don't think any announcement has been made yet AFAIK. Expect one will be forthcoming in the next hour, depending on how long the meeting goes on for.

My own guesstimate is that they won't go full on lockdown until mid-next week - when cases are c. 3-5,000.

The stupid thing is that there’s probably already 3-5000 cases right now. And if they wait until there’s that many tested cases there will be 3x that many in the wild.

...out of a population of 60 million. Lets not get too bent out of shape.

tim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:15 pm ...out of a population of 60 million. Lets not get too bent out of shape.

Unchecked, you’d expect 70-80% of the population to get it. The vast majority of those cases will be mild. Around 20% of those cases will require hospitalisation. Around 5% will need ICU. The death rate is somewhere between 2-5%-ish.

So 42 million infected. 8.4 million requiring hospital treatment. 2.1 million ICU cases. About 1 million dead. Yeah, no need to get bent out of shape.

The U.K. has just passed the point where the number of cases is doubling every 2 days. We’re at 460 official, known cases. It’d take 31 days to hit 42 million cases if we do nothing.

I'm in the pub looking at Bloomberg as I made them put it on. The average Brit has no clue what's happening.

I thought someone working for hospitals would know better...

Also look at Italy, no hospitals in the north have operating rooms any more as they’ve all been converted to covid wards. So a heart attack is now fatal. A bad car accident is now fatal etc. Death rates increasing for everything.

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:32 pm

tim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:15 pm ...out of a population of 60 million. Lets not get too bent out of shape.

Unchecked, you’d expect 70-80% of the population to get it. The vast majority of those cases will be mild. Around 20% of those cases will require hospitalisation. Around 5% will need ICU. The death rate is somewhere between 2-5%-ish.

So 42 million infected. 8.4 million requiring hospital treatment. 2.1 million ICU cases. About 1 million dead. Yeah, no need to get bent out of shape.

The U.K. has just passed the point where the number of cases is doubling every 2 days. We’re at 460 official, known cases. It’d take 31 days to hit 42 million cases if we do nothing.

590 now. 28% increase on yesterday so pretty spot on for exponential increase.

My personal opinion is that Ireland has got it right, and Boris is about to fuck it up royally by doing as little as possible.

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:11 pm

240PP wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 pm

tim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:03 pm Looks like amazon is out of hand gel too ffs...

now we really are fucked.

It's been like that since last week!

Yeah, ebay and Amazon are no longer supplying them because of price gouging.

CEO got his hands on 100,000 bottles of hand sanitiser about three days previous, didn't get it on eBay fast enough.

Just heard that the CEO has today tasked someone with setting up an amazon account to sell them.

Bit late for that too.

I'm not laughing, honest

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:32 pm

tim wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:15 pm ...out of a population of 60 million. Lets not get too bent out of shape.

Unchecked, you’d expect 70-80% of the population to get it. The vast majority of those cases will be mild. Around 20% of those cases will require hospitalisation. Around 5% will need ICU. The death rate is somewhere between 2-5%-ish.

So 42 million infected. 8.4 million requiring hospital treatment. 2.1 million ICU cases. About 1 million dead. Yeah, no need to get bent out of shape.

The U.K. has just passed the point where the number of cases is doubling every 2 days. We’re at 460 official, known cases. It’d take 31 days to hit 42 million cases if we do nothing.

Watching at lunch I'm not sure who BBC had on but a very senior public health official I think - quoted the 70-80% figure as a worst case but said that China's currently at c20% and it's also currently levelling off. That's still some potetnially big numbers of dead people though.

She was, however, also suggesting that it's not that we won't lockdown, just a matter of timing as to when we do. As I wasn't aware of who it was it's hard to know if they were just being told to say the right thing, but she was ceratinly advocating not to get panicked yet about a perceived lack of Gov't action - they were being closely advised constantly by key scientists.

I guess we'll find out within the next few days though eh?

Yeah, she said something like “we don’t want to do it too early or people will get bored of it and start ignoring”. WTF?

In China it levelled off as soon as they started social distancing. They were slow to react to the initial outbreak in Wuhan but acted very quickly as it spread to other regions.

So Spain is now only a week behind Italy. Let’s just stick our heads in the sand for a while eh.

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:19 pm Yeah, she said something like “we don’t want to do it too early or people will get bored of it and start ignoring”. WTF?

In China it levelled off as soon as they started social distancing. They were slow to react to the initial outbreak in Wuhan but acted very quickly as it spread to other regions.

It's times like these that it helps that the general public know that they have no rights and the government doesn't fuck about. When they're told to do something in China, they do as they're told.

That said, I simply don't believe the Chinese numbers. It can't go down that quick.

https://apple.news/A5j_IdTFyTjKKpLufLiu3vw

TLDR - if policy changes allow it, we’ll have a massive spike soon as not everyone is allowed to be tested for the virus right now despite there being obvious community cases and people in hospital with it.

Live announcement now.

Mito Man wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:14 pm The stupid thing is that there’s probably already 3-5000 cases right now. And if they wait until there’s that many tested cases there will be 3x that many in the wild.

Already on 10,000 according to “the officials”

So we don’t want old people to start social distancing as they’ll get lonely
Yes let’s have them all get pneumonia instead...

Can’t be lonely if you’re dead.

Mito Man wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:46 pm https://apple.news/A5j_IdTFyTjKKpLufLiu3vw

TLDR - if policy changes allow it, we’ll have a massive spike soon as not everyone is allowed to be tested for the virus right now despite there being obvious community cases and people in hospital with it.

Also this kinda happened but now they’re only going to test hospital cases. It’s all a bit “China” in feeling. We don’t know the true numbers and nor will we in the future.

We will still be able to extrapolate a rough estimate from the mortality figures.

Italy has 1000 dead and even assuming that their rate is running at 2% fatalities rather than the average of 1% (mentioned in the press conference as a pretty certain figure), they likely have closer to 50,000 cases, not 15,000 as stated.