OV9

Is it that straight forward though ??

The 2.4 people who contract it on the day on the beach aren't necessarily going to them go to another, similarly crowded place and pass it onto 2.4 more. If they go home and continue to effectively "Stay Safe" etc, then the onward infection rate decreases.

More reason to retain restrictions for longer I suppose

I’d say that if they were cool with a beach trip during a pandemic, chances are they aren’t being that careful at home

Well, again I think as a one off event, it’s sort of fine but it’s an indicator that people are behaving in a less safe way so I don’t necessarily think those people who will sit on a crowded beach one day will the next day return to strict isolation.

dinny_g wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:44 pm Is it that straight forward though ??

The 2.4 people who contract it on the day on the beach aren't necessarily going to them go to another, similarly crowded place and pass it onto 2.4 more. If they go home and continue to effectively "Stay Safe" etc, then the onward infection rate decreases.

More reason to retain restrictions for longer I suppose

Just to be crystal clear on the meaning of the numbers - nobody is saying 2.4 people will contract it from a day at the beach. 2.4 (Rev's quote) or 2.6 (my quoted R number) is the number of people on average an infected person will pass it onto in the entire course of their infection.

My (probably wildly inaccurate) numbers suggest that from a beach-based gathering as described, there will be an average of 0.001 new cases.

Fair points all...

ZedLeg wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:41 pm It would be exactly on brand for this country to get two steps away from an all clear but fuck it because people can’t see beyond the end of their nose

This

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:49 pm Well, again I think as a one off event, it’s sort of fine but it’s an indicator that people are behaving in a less safe way so I don’t necessarily think those people who will sit on a crowded beach one day will the next day return to strict isolation.

Shades of grey. It about the majority to people doing mostly sensible things, rather than the two extremes of either licking everybody's face, or total isolation.

I think I'm coming round to the view that, at this point, there is reasonable cause for optimism that as long as most people are taking reasonable steps to reduce the chances of transmission (i.e. hand washing, surface sterilisation, reduced skin-to-skin contact), and the total number of interactions is low (i.e. few large, densely packed crowds), the path of decline will continue to near zero.

Nefarious wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:58 pm I think I'm coming round to the view that, at this point, there is reasonable cause for optimism that as long as most people are taking reasonable steps to reduce the chances of transmission, and the total number of interactions is low (i.e. few large, densely packed crowds), the path of decline will continue to near zero.

This...

Nefarious wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:58 pm

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:49 pm Well, again I think as a one off event, it’s sort of fine but it’s an indicator that people are behaving in a less safe way so I don’t necessarily think those people who will sit on a crowded beach one day will the next day return to strict isolation.

Shades of grey. It about the majority to people doing mostly sensible things, rather than the two extremes of either licking everybody's face, or total isolation.

I think I'm coming round to the view that, at this point, there is reasonable cause for optimism that as long as most people are taking reasonable steps to reduce the chances of transmission (i.e. hand washing, surface sterilisation, reduced skin-to-skin contact), and the total number of interactions is low (i.e. few large, densely packed crowds), the path of decline will continue to near zero.

I think the fact that there don’t seem to have been any proper 2nd waves so far are the most encouraging.

It depends on how much you trust China’s figures but this is as close to a second wave as I think we are at the moment ie none

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-19-cases

It's a bit sad that everyone is constantly on a downer about the people of this country. Over the lockdown the vast majority of people I've come into contact with have been doing all the right things. People see a few hundred people on a beach, and suddenly this country is a nation of morons, ignoring the fact that for every one doing it wrong there's probably a thousand doing it right.

It's not easy to give up your whole way of life for an indefinite period IMO, and I think we've done pretty well so far. The numbers would seem to agree.

Iran seems to be heading for one
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

duncs500 wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 3:15 pm It's a bit sad that everyone is constantly on a downer about the people of this country. Over the lockdown the vast majority of people I've come into contact with have been doing all the right things. People see a few hundred people on a beach, and suddenly this country is a nation of morons, ignoring the fact that for every one doing it wrong there's probably a thousand doing it right.

It's not easy to give up your whole way of life for an indefinite period IMO, and I think we've done pretty well so far. The numbers would seem to agree.

indeed, you can almost hear Zed salivating over the idea of being able to say “I told you so” in his post...

Oh behave yourselves, it was a joke.

dinny_g wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 3:00 pm

Nefarious wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:58 pm I think I'm coming round to the view that, at this point, there is reasonable cause for optimism that as long as most people are taking reasonable steps to reduce the chances of transmission, and the total number of interactions is low (i.e. few large, densely packed crowds), the path of decline will continue to near zero.

This...

Add me to the list of people who is optimistic about this.

I think it will maybe be Q4 this year before we can return to "normal", but so long as there's not a second wave, the interim measures should be ok although I do wonder how much it would take to kickstart a second wave. i.e. a hot summer in London with just a few cases coming-in could be catastrophic right?

I dunno. I think people might generally be a bit more careful about personal space in general for a while after this...

Ah, Zuck's being a Musk again.

Ascender wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 6:01 pm

dinny_g wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 3:00 pm

Nefarious wrote: Thu May 21, 2020 2:58 pm I think I'm coming round to the view that, at this point, there is reasonable cause for optimism that as long as most people are taking reasonable steps to reduce the chances of transmission, and the total number of interactions is low (i.e. few large, densely packed crowds), the path of decline will continue to near zero.

This...

Add me to the list of people who is optimistic about this.

I think it will maybe be Q4 this year before we can return to "normal", but so long as there's not a second wave, the interim measures should be ok although I do wonder how much it would take to kickstart a second wave. i.e. a hot summer in London with just a few cases coming-in could be catastrophic right?

The trouble with that is where will it be lapping around the world in the interim? Africa, S. America are clearly the big concerns. However, who's to say that Aus and NZ have yet escaped it? It's coming around to their winters so you'd expect that might play a part. Before you know it it's Autumn over here and if it's still circulating it could all kick off again.

I see there's a lot of noise about AstraZeneca at the minute - probably worth a punt for those that like to dabble. If the stories are to be believed their share price could skyrocket in late summer/early autumn...

Not quite sure I can see how people think we've done well.

We did well to stop the NHS being overwhelmed, but by most other metrics we've done pretty poorly and our downwards curve is one of the worst in the world out of the places which got early infections, With only the shitstorm that is the USA, and Sweden which had no official lockdown being equally slow to get it under control.

As above though, that's all 'for now' as it's certainly not going away any time soon and is brewing up nicely in lots of other places. And as said, are those places which got control of it quickly going to become complacent and see higher second peaks than other places?

Amazing coronavirus response from the glorious leader



Also YIKES