Coronavirus

[Broccers]

The problem with those figures is that they’re excess deaths above the average and most countries (including the UK) were significantly below average prior to the Coronavirus outbreak.

That’s the point of averages tho

Think Daves been Mediawned. Dont believe the hype.

[Foz]

Having dabbled in statistical analysis, its absolutely; lies lies and damn statistics!

[NotoriousREV]

The problem with those figures is that they’re excess deaths above the average and most countries (including the UK) were significantly below average prior to the Coronavirus outbreak.

That’s the point of averages tho

No, the point of averages is to give you an indication of trends over time, they're not much use for deriving actual numbers. They just show whether you're doing better or worse than in the past. They don't give you a true picture of the impact of Coronavirus, they just tell you where you are vs the average. We've gone from below average to above average but you can't derive a figure for Coronavirus deaths from it. The figures on those graphs are less than the known Coronavirus deaths, which are known to be understated. Sharp increase on the graph tells us there's a big problem, it doesn't really give a particularly accurate picture of the severity. For that, you need a good predictor of where we would have been tracking without CV.It's the excess deaths versus THAT figure that gives us a true reflection.

[NotoriousREV]

The problem with those figures is that they’re excess deaths above the average and most countries (including the UK) were significantly below average prior to the Coronavirus outbreak.

That’s the point of averages tho

Think Daves been Mediawned. Dont believe the hype.

I'm just looking at the numbers. I'm not even watching the news or reading the papers. You're just back to "reckoning" shit again with no basis.

[NotoriousREV]

The numbers are there to be read: mid-Feb we were tracking well under the 5 year average but had caught up by the end of March. So the actual excess death figure is greater than 15,600 (+37%).

0359C446-123F-4683-A8E9-610AF4740B33.jpeg (35.31 KiB) Viewed 2049 times

[Broccers]

Ok so where are the people numbers who died from not having crucial treatment / ops over the last couple of months?

edit - dont think hospitals were shut in the average numbers over 5 years previously.

[NotoriousREV]

Ok so where are the people numbers who died from not having crucial treatment / ops over the last couple of months?

They'll be in those figures somewhere. As will those that didn't die in road traffic accidents, or from heart attacks during the commute etc. Which is exactly why the averages are useless for singling out individual causes of death. It's going to take very detailed analysis long after the fact to get any real insight. There's going to be a lot of Degree theses written about this in the decades to come.

The guy on Twitter asserting that those figures are "the only way" to understand the impact of coronavirus, is dead wrong.

[NotoriousREV]

edit - dont think hospitals were shut in the average numbers over 5 years previously.

Hospitals aren't shut now, either. I was at my local one the other day and it's very much open.

[Broccers]

edit - dont think hospitals were shut in the average numbers over 5 years previously.

Hospitals aren't shut now, either. I was at my local one the other day and it's very much open.

The hospitals arent shut 'now'. No ops have been put off, business as usual over the past few months.

[NotoriousREV]

edit - dont think hospitals were shut in the average numbers over 5 years previously.

Hospitals aren't shut now, either. I was at my local one the other day and it's very much open.

The hospitals arent shut 'now'.

They were never shut. All they ever did was cancel non-urgent treatments.

[Broccers]

Hospitals aren't shut now, either. I was at my local one the other day and it's very much open.

The hospitals arent shut 'now'.

They were never shut. All they ever did was cancel non-urgent treatments.

Ok Dave of course they werent shut per se. You are too pedantic but do please think about the BIGGER picture especially when presenting your figures where they arent comparing the same circumstances per year.

[ZedLeg]

How could you not know that he didn’t mean they were shut when he said they were shut Rev?

Are people taking what you say out of context broccers

[NotoriousREV]

The hospitals arent shut 'now'.

They were never shut. All they ever did was cancel non-urgent treatments.

Ok Dave of course they werent shut per se. You are too pedantic but do please think about the BIGGER picture especially when presenting your figures where they arent comparing the same circumstances per year.

People generally don't die from lack of non-urgent treatment. That's why they call it non-urgent.

Have people put off seeking treatment in the belief that hospitals were closed? Absolutely. Have people died as a result of not seeking treatment? Probably. I have never argued that that's not the case, so I don't know why you're challenging me on it. But, unless you have the numbers to hand, I suspect that number is very low.

[Broccers]

How could you not know that he didn’t mean they were shut when he said they were shut Rev?

Are people taking what you say out of context broccers

Whats your take on it all leftie?

[NotoriousREV]

How could you not know that he didn’t mean they were shut when he said they were shut Rev?

Are people taking what you say out of context broccers

He was being sarcastic and trying to call out the Noble Prize winning reporters

[ZedLeg]

How could you not know that he didn’t mean they were shut when he said they were shut Rev?

Are people taking what you say out of context broccers

Whats your take on it all leftie?

My take on whether hospitals have been shut?

They haven’t been.

[Broccers]

The exact pace of the restoration over the coming weeks will be determined by local circumstances, with the most urgent treatments brought back soonest, said the health secretary.

He voiced concern over a drop of more than 50 per cent – to 221,000 last week – in the number of people attending accident and emergency departments compared to last year.

Warning that some of this decline was accounted for by people staying away despite suspected heart attack, stroke or cancer, he sent out a message: “The NHS is open. Help us to help you. Come forward and seek help as you always would.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 86906.html

Knock on effects from this behaviour over the previous couple of months = more deaths, probably.

[integrale_evo]

A huge number of people go to a&e for non-urgent things. Maybe putting them off going so they stay home and see if they get better or seek advice from their gp or one of the 111 services instead of draining hospital resources is one of the better things to come out of the 'crisis'

[NotoriousREV]

“The NHS is open. Help us to help you. Come forward and seek help as you always would.”

So not closed, then?

[Rich B]

A huge number of people go to a&e for non-urgent things. Maybe putting them off going so they stay home and see if they get better or seek advice from their gp or one of the 111 services instead of draining hospital resources is one of the better things to come out of the 'crisis'

that was my first thought too. Obviously there will be people who really should be going, but there will be plenty of capacity freed from time wasters.