OV9

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:20 am**

NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:18 am
Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:15 am
NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:00 am Amusing that the Daily Mail is reporting that the Conservatives have a “majority of 80” rather than 80 seats more than Labour.
It’s a lot more than 80 - it’s 364 vs. 203 right now. Are you new at maths ?
The Daily Mail are saying 80. Are you new at reading?

You’re new at maths. I’ll wait.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:21 am**

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:20 am
NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:18 am
Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:15 am

It’s a lot more than 80 - it’s 364 vs. 203 right now. Are you new at maths ?
The Daily Mail are saying 80. Are you new at reading?
You’re new at maths. I’ll wait.

No, I’m short on sleep

Figured it out now

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:22 am**

A majority is party in government v all the rest right??

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:24 am**

Yeah. Rev was struggling with that.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:24 am**

NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:19 am
Rich B wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:17 am
NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:16 am

I’m sure CON can count on the SNP and the LibDems to support them
they don’t need to.
No, but the advantage CON have over the rest of the house isn’t 80.

yes, we’ve established that the daily mail are as bad at maths as you.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:25 am**

Gavin wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:22 am A majority is party in government v all the rest right??

Yeah, I worked it out wrong. They currently have a majority of 79. I’m going back to bed

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:26 am**

On an unrelated note, I’m lined up to be the new shadow chancellor.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:31 am**

Going to wear my Sunday best and a blue rosette when I go into Stroud later. Just for the lols. I've had the labour party rammed down my throat for weeks now with the condescending assertion that any detractors are just heartless, racist morons.

I'll just try and forget that now we have an identikit tory mp who doesn't have any of her own opinions and doesn't even live in the constituency

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:53 am**

duncs500 wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:04 am Lib Dems got a big up swing in my constituency 25% increase in vote share. Sadly not enough to change the result.

Similarly in NE Hants.

Winchester was a close one.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:16 am**

Apart from Swinson losing her seat to SNP by a tiny margin, the Lib Dems have done really well. I’m hoping that’s recognised in the next stage of Brexit.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:29 am**

NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:46 am It isn’t based on swing, but it predicts swing and the swing from LAB to CON was less than predicted.

They predict much more than swing: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistic ... explainer/

‘Swing’ implies a general shift across constituencies; what they predict is specific to each constituency.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am**

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:16 am Apart from Swinson losing her seat to SNP by a tiny margin, the Lib Dems have done really well. I’m hoping that’s recognised in the next stage of Brexit.

Really? In what way other than a slight increase in the vote share (sub 3% I believe and still barely over 1 in 10 of the electorate) and beating Zac Goldsmith (a moderate, green tory)? Their leader was defenestrated, they failed to win any of the seats of the Labour or Tory defectors and ended up one down on 2017.

Given they chance they had to mop up remainer votes, I'd say they had a shocker. But fundmentally their ticket (until they realised how badly it was going) was a straight revoke. Hardly living up to the democratic part of their name.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:42 am**

Jobbo wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:29 am
NotoriousREV wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:46 am It isn’t based on swing, but it predicts swing and the swing from LAB to CON was less than predicted.
They predict much more than swing: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistic ... explainer/

‘Swing’ implies a general shift across constituencies; what they predict is specific to each constituency.

Yes, I know. But that doesn’t change the fact that the swing in each seat was less than predicted by them. It’s not difficult. Not sure why you’re trying so hard to overanalyse it.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:45 am**

Others I am pleased lost their seats;

Sourberries
Grieve
Chuka

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:49 am**

You have to include an honourary mention to Pidcock in that list don't you? Very glad I don't have to listen to her inanities any more. Shame Jess Phillips is still there as she's another arch-irritant but you can't win 'em all.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:59 am**

GG. wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am
Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:16 am Apart from Swinson losing her seat to SNP by a tiny margin, the Lib Dems have done really well. I’m hoping that’s recognised in the next stage of Brexit.
Really? In what way other than a slight increase in the vote share (sub 3% I believe and still barely over 1 in 10 of the electorate) and beating Zac Goldsmith (a moderate, green tory)? Their leader was defenestrated, they failed to win any of the seats of the Labour or Tory defectors and ended up one down on 2017.

Given they chance they had to mop up remainer votes, I'd say they had a shocker. But fundmentally their ticket (until they realised how badly it was going) was a straight revoke. Hardly living up to the democratic part of their name.

I just think that Swindon simply wasn't enough of an inspiring leader, it's good she's gone... although you never know who will be next.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:28 am**

So anyone planning on voting for Nigel’s Reform Party to get PR?

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:31 am**

duncs500 wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:59 am
GG. wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am
Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:16 am Apart from Swinson losing her seat to SNP by a tiny margin, the Lib Dems have done really well. I’m hoping that’s recognised in the next stage of Brexit.
Really? In what way other than a slight increase in the vote share (sub 3% I believe and still barely over 1 in 10 of the electorate) and beating Zac Goldsmith (a moderate, green tory)? Their leader was defenestrated, they failed to win any of the seats of the Labour or Tory defectors and ended up one down on 2017.

Given they chance they had to mop up remainer votes, I'd say they had a shocker. But fundmentally their ticket (until they realised how badly it was going) was a straight revoke. Hardly living up to the democratic part of their name.
I just think that Swindon simply wasn't enough of an inspiring leader, it's good she's gone... although you never know who will be next.

Have the Liberal Democrat’s ever had a really inspiring leader

Paddy Ashdown seems to be well remembered but he was before my time.

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:31 am**

LDs don't have anyone that looks and sounds like a leader do they?

Just been looking at the vote share and you do begin to realise how staggering the lack of PR is in some areas. SNP won 1.2m votes and got 48 seats. LDs 3.6m votes and just 11 seats.

So well within the Scots' interest to not have PR (and Wales and NI obvs).

Posted: **Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:33 am**

ZedLeg wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:31 am
duncs500 wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:59 am
GG. wrote: Fri Dec 13, 2019 9:35 am

Really? In what way other than a slight increase in the vote share (sub 3% I believe and still barely over 1 in 10 of the electorate) and beating Zac Goldsmith (a moderate, green tory)? Their leader was defenestrated, they failed to win any of the seats of the Labour or Tory defectors and ended up one down on 2017.

Given they chance they had to mop up remainer votes, I'd say they had a shocker. But fundmentally their ticket (until they realised how badly it was going) was a straight revoke. Hardly living up to the democratic part of their name.
I just think that Swindon simply wasn't enough of an inspiring leader, it's good she's gone... although you never know who will be next.
Have the Liberal Democrat’s ever had a really inspiring leader

Paddy Ashdown seems to be well remembered but he was before my time.

Clegg seemingly. But then he got punished because LD voters don't understand what a coalition means, and take their bat home

OV9

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