OV9

Nadine Dorries, the health minister, has it.

I wonder how much time she's spent in parliament lately, and how many hands she's shaken.

Oh, and apparently she held a constituent surgery thing while symptomatic...which I've decided isn't ironic, but just typical of our current government.

Anyone else buying shares currently? Might take a year to recover fully but surely this market turmoil is a relatively short-term blip.

I just want this corona virus to shit or get off the pot.

tim wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:05 am Anyone else buying shares currently? Might take a year to recover fully but surely this market turmoil is a relatively short-term blip.

I would if I had spare cash at the moment!

Beany wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:56 am Nadine Dorries, the health minister, has it.

I wonder how much time she's spent in parliament lately, and how many hands she's shaken.

Oh, and apparently she held a constituent surgery thing while symptomatic...which I've decided isn't ironic, but just typical of our current government.

She said she may have passed it on to her 84 year old mother too - that’s one way to move inheritance along...

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:58 am

jamcg wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:19 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51831004

Government starting to panic a little?

Wow, they didn’t hold back with at drop, did they? The economic effects must be pretty bad already if they’ve done this so quickly.

Pre-emptive. One of the things they learnt from 2008 was go big go early with stimulus. The fact that people are drawing parallels with '08 tells you all you need to know though. I wouldn't expect any of Europe to escape recession this year unless we miraculously get away with a much more minor outbreak than Italy.

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:58 am

jamcg wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:19 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51831004

Government starting to panic a little?

Wow, they didn’t hold back with at drop, did they? The economic effects must be pretty bad already if they’ve done this so quickly.

At first I thought it was a pre-emptive move before the budget today; now I think it was a reaction to the stock market falls on Monday. Interesting, anyway.

GG. wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:41 am Pre-emptive. One of the things they learnt from 2008 was go big go early with stimulus. The fact that people are drawing parallels with '08 tells you all you need to know though. I wouldn't expect any of Europe to escape recession this year unless we miraculously get away with a much more minor outbreak than Italy.

Hmmmm so are we going to see mid-30s 996 GT3, mid-20s CSL then?

I'm still holding out for my £40k Modena !!

Although it'll probably coincide with the era of the £15k Vantage

GG. wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:41 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:58 am

jamcg wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:19 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51831004

Government starting to panic a little?

Wow, they didn’t hold back with at drop, did they? The economic effects must be pretty bad already if they’ve done this so quickly.

Pre-emptive. One of the things they learnt from 2008 was go big go early with stimulus. The fact that people are drawing parallels with '08 tells you all you need to know though. I wouldn't expect any of Europe to escape recession this year unless we miraculously get away with a much more minor outbreak than Italy.

But where do they go if things get worse? I think the markets have been looking for an excuse to go bear for a while.

tim wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:05 am Anyone else buying shares currently? Might take a year to recover fully but surely this market turmoil is a relatively short-term blip.

If youre an investor then its good long term (if you sold before they dipped ).

Budget on now lets see what he comes up with....

Well those business rate cuts mean they’re expecting it to be an absolute shit show.

Mito Man wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:48 pm Well those business rate cuts mean they’re expecting it to be an absolute shit show.

Health workers are echoing that. I spoke to a consultant last week who's husband is a radiographer. He expects its going to hit hard.

Twitter thread from an Italian doctor makes for grim reading.

Well we’re gonna go back into austerity in a few years. So much for the good boom years, there were barely existent after the last recession anyway.

Ascender wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:07 pm Twitter thread from an Italian doctor makes for grim reading.

Fuck...

Also this is not helped by the U.K. cases which are shared on the news. They only share the good ones from what I’ve seen. An old couple who had no symptoms. Another chap who just got through it by drinking whisky and honey. Nadine who said she’s getting over it now just staying at home...

Ascender wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:07 pm Twitter thread from an Italian doctor makes for grim reading.

Hmm. Not good at all. ALbeit some countries still bucking the trend in terms of deaths vs cases. Germany for one.

I am getting a little worried now, given my other half is a transplant patient

There are some funny differences internationally. E.g. Germany currently has 1622 cases of which 3 are dead and 9 are listed in serious/critical condition (i.e. <1% death or serious illness) vs Italy has 10,149 cases of which 631 dead and 877 seriously/critically unwell (~15%). France, Spain, South Korea somewhere in the middle. I suspect it overwhelmed Italy very quickly and they don't have the resources to test mild cases hence they are massively underestimating the number of cases. But in these situations, there can be a multiplicative effect to mortality as there aren't enough ventilators or enough medical staff to go around and people who would have survived with good care are dying for want of it. The other thing to say is that Italy has a significantly older population (the average age of those dying is 81 in Italy).

Meanwhile in the UK - I think we're very close to the point where we should be properly doing social distancing. Cases jumped by 83 from yesterday having had a daily growth of 50/day for the previous few days. I think that we have cases with no obvious connections to foreign travel / other diagnosed cases indicates there is circulation in the population, probably amongst people who think they have a bit of a winter virus. I think we're already at the stage where people who can should be working from home and schools/social gatherings/etc should be closing down. If the growth becomes exponential then an Italy style lock down is sensible.

Don't get me wrong - this is coming - but by socially distancing, hand washing, being sensible we can slow it down so that health care doesn't get overwhelmed.

I'm off to take a brave pill before my ICU shift this weekend....