OV9

That isn't what you asked.

The referendum was non-binding, Article 50 can legally be revoked. Parliament won't allow a No Deal exit unless prorogued (which would lead to a constitutional crisis), Johnson doesn't command a majority to get through any deal he may or may not get.

It ain't over yet by a long shot. If you can guess what's going to happen next, I'd also like your lottery numbers.

My prediction, for what little it's worth:

- Some renegotiation that ends with a vaguely modified version of May's WA, but not substantively different
- Fails in Parliament
- Another, longer extension of Article 50
- General Election fought on 2nd Ref or not.

Just to put some more figures into the mix - from the OEC for 2017

UK
Imports - $618B of which c52% ($321B) is from EU countries
Exports - $395B of which c43% ($170B) is to EU countries

Looking at Germany specifically (our biggest trading partners in the EU) we're Germany's 4th largest export market at c$90B whilst they import c$39B

It obviously difficult to determine what the net effects would be from No Deal, but I think it's fair to say that the EU doesn't care is very far from reality.

I don't think Boris has any intention of No Dealing anyway. He's on the campaign trail and that's purely what all of this is about. If he fails to renegotiate a deal, he likely won't prorogue Parliament, it will go to a vote, and we'll have another extension. He'll then call a GE, declaring their hands have been tied in delivering Brexit by the Remain MPs and/or the EU. The No Deal planning plays into this, with the added benefit of genuinely testing the resolve of the EU's position on renegotiation.

Rich B wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:44 pm

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:38 pm

Rich B wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:36 pm that ship has sailed. I am as fucked off as anyone about Brexit.

But it will happen, so there really is no point sitting here whining about what could have been. The only thing worth discussing now is what is the best course going forward.

So again, what do you want/think should to happen?

Revocation of Article 50 and let the whole failed project die. I'd have thought that was obvious?

But you know full well that that can’t happen because the country voted to leave.

I know there’s arguments and legal loops and all the rest that says we don’t have to, but just because we’re on the side that thinks the whole thing is stupid, there are more on the other side who don’t.

So the only choices we have left are how we leave.

The stupidity in all of this remains with MPs voting to enact Article 50 prior to any discussions/negotiations having taken place. Decide what "leave" means first, then commit. Don't commit to No Dealing (which is exactly what they did do - hence it sticks in the throat a little that some of them are so vocal about it - you voted for A50 you f**king chumps) before deciding what leave means

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:59 pm I don't think Boris has any intention of No Dealing anyway. He's on the campaign trail and that's purely what all of this is about. If he fails to renegotiate a deal, he likely won't prorogue Parliament, it will go to a vote, and we'll have another extension. He'll then call a GE, declaring their hands have been tied in delivering Brexit by the Remain MPs and/or the EU. The No Deal planning plays into this, with the added benefit of genuinely testing the resolve of the EU's position on renegotiation.

100% agree with this.

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:04 pm

Swervin_Mervin wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:59 pm I don't think Boris has any intention of No Dealing anyway. He's on the campaign trail and that's purely what all of this is about. If he fails to renegotiate a deal, he likely won't prorogue Parliament, it will go to a vote, and we'll have another extension. He'll then call a GE, declaring their hands have been tied in delivering Brexit by the Remain MPs and/or the EU. The No Deal planning plays into this, with the added benefit of genuinely testing the resolve of the EU's position on renegotiation.

100% agree with this.

Yeah, I think you’re both probably right too.

He's already trying to walk back his no deal rhetoric, which has led to some of the brexit zealots saying they'll vote down any deal even if they somehow manage to get rid of the Irish backstop .

ZedLeg wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:41 pm Back on to bullying patriotism broccers.

Do you get your brexit script in the mail.

Not at all. I am for everyone doing well I wouldnt have voted leave if I thought the country wasn't up to it.

Plenty of opportunities once the dust settles.

Broccers wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:17 pm

ZedLeg wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:41 pm Back on to bullying patriotism broccers.

Do you get your brexit script in the mail.

Not at all. I am for everyone doing well I wouldnt have voted leave if I thought the country wasn't up to it.

Plenty of opportunities once the dust settles.

Such as?

If you don't know Dave then I can't enlighten you - I'm sure you can use Google.

Broccers wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:22 pm If you don't know Dave then I can't enlighten you - I'm sure you can use Google.

I don’t want Google’s opinion, I want yours.

Broccers wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:22 pm If you don't know Dave then I can't enlighten you - I'm sure you can use Google.

Boom!! The clarion cry of the true Brexiteer!

If you lot feel so strongly about Brexit, why won't you just give a few reasons why? I genuinely don't understand. Aren't people proud of the causes they back?

JLv3.0 wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:25 pm

Broccers wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:22 pm If you don't know Dave then I can't enlighten you - I'm sure you can use Google.

Boom!! The clarion cry of the true Brexiteer.

Dammit, I needed “I’ve already discussed this at length, I’m not doing again” to win

Shouldn't be too long to wait. Seeing as they only have a handful of responses anyway.

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:23 pm

Broccers wrote: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:22 pm If you don't know Dave then I can't enlighten you - I'm sure you can use Google.

I don’t want Google’s opinion, I want yours.

No point as it'll be shredded with made up bollocks that noone actually knows as its never happened previously.

Right, one more deflection for a full house.

So you have absolutely nothing. Thought so.

Talking to Brexiteers is like arguing with a woman.

'what's wrong?'
'you should know.'
'why don't you just tell me?'
'I shouldn't have to.'
'just tell me.'
'I've told you before.'

Etc

Hopefully Boris’ £2.1Bn preparation will include spelling out the benefits in great detail to us non-believers.

I think “I’m not telling you because it won’t stand up to analysis” is my new favourite.