OV9

You mean Sunak?

Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:27 am

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:08 am ...there's no way anyone can just declare that all reform votes came from Tory voters!

Highly likely though. Reform voters aren't lefties just doing it for the lolz. I'll have a look later, there's probably some data on it.

FWIW my mate up North, his constituency of Morecambe and Lunesdale presented a similar result - Labour win but Conservative + Reform combined would have clinched it.

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/new ... on-4691846

so if we assume every single Reform vote was from a disillusioned Tory voter, who do you think they would have voted for if there was no protest vote party?

Mito Man wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:41 am You mean Sunak?

No Starmer...

England were winning under Sunak - now they lost. Must be Starmer's fault

Jobbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 10:29 am Plenty of evidence that people actively didn't vote for Labour due to their stance on Israel/Palestine. I think Reform would have been a beneficiary of that, as well as Green and Lib Dems.

I dunno about that. The lefties I know who were offended by Labour's stance on that conflict or other issues simply abstained or spoiled their vote. I can't see that Reform is an alternative for any left wingers. Greens and Lib Dems, yes.

Yeah it was abstaining or the greens. No self respecting lefty could vote reform.

ZedLeg wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:02 pm Yeah it was abstaining or the greens. No self respecting lefty could vote reform.

Interestingly in my constituency Labour lost 7% of vote share, which largely went to green. I expect that was as a result of Starmer not being anti-semitic or communist enough for them.

ETA -I also like that in the spirit of splitting the vote we've split the comments across two competing threads

ZedLeg wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:02 pm Yeah it was abstaining or the greens. No self respecting lefty could vote reform.

The red wall that turned blue in 2019 is the obvious place where voters may not have returned to Labour. Look at Ashfield - Lee Anderson used to be a Labour Party member before becoming a Tory MP and Ashfield was part of the red wall - that's gone to Reform. The Labour vote has not returned to its 2017 and earlier levels.

It’s not the same people though, the folk who voted for Lee Anderson aren’t going to be politically aligned with folk who voted for the greens.

Like, no one was going to reform due to Labour’s view on Palestine.

ZedLeg wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:24 pm It’s not the same people though, the folk who voted for Lee Anderson aren’t going to be politically aligned with folk who voted for the greens.

Like, no one was going to reform due to Labour’s view on Palestine.

I've been looking at all the red wall seats - voters have not returned to Labour in the numbers that you would have anticipated but they have gone to Reform. Labour have won most of them but the actual number of votes is telling. You could say voting Reform returned Labour in those seats but the reality was that they were Labour through and through; it was the Brexit offering of Boris that made them switch and they would naturally have returned to their norms. The level of Reform votes, which can only have come from 2017 and earlier Labour supporters, is notable.

I get what you’re saying about those red wall constituencies. I’m just not sure that’s transferable to other places.

Like I say, no one was going to Reform due to Palestine, trans rights or prospective new PFIs, which have been the main disagreements from the left.

ZedLeg wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:33 pm I get what you’re saying about those red wall constituencies. I’m just not sure that’s transferable to other places.

Like I say, no one was going to Reform due to Palestine, trans rights or prospective new PFIs, which have been the main disagreements from the left.

I did specifically say in most of my posts this morning that you need to look at each constituency individually, so I'm not trying to say it applies across the UK. But it is evidence that Reform didn't just take Tory votes across a wide band of the country so simply adding the two together would not be justified basis for a 'what if'.

It's been very interesting to see the Labour losses to independents and Green for reasons such as those you mention.

Yeah, can’t argue with that.

GG. wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:16 pm ETA -I also like that in the spirit of splitting the vote we've split the comments across two competing threads

I am Nigel Ferage... I thank you...

As Labour is the largest party in the three countries of Great Britain, close down the independent parliaments and bring it all back to Westminster. Reduce costs, lower taxes in Scotland, fewer politicians..

Then maybe look at PR..

Nah, if anything federalise more.

No one outside of London wants all the power consolidated there.

Had to got off Instagram because it’s full of left wing people whinging about Labour winning. Not a shred of happiness. The main topics of complaint were 1) Labour is not Labouring correctly. 2) Reform won four seats, 3) The electoral system is broken.

I wish they could have at least been happy that the Conservatives are out for the weekend, then start moaning again on Monday?

I suppose it's fair enough, this labour gov is pretty centred. If you were a hardcore corbynista, you'd be pretty oossed off that "your" party has gone.

The reality is, anything other than centre is going to struggle to be popular enough to get in.

Rich B wrote: Sat Jul 06, 2024 7:53 am I suppose it's fair enough, this labour gov is pretty centred. If you were a hardcore corbynista, you'd be pretty oossed off that "your" party has gone.

The reality is, anything other than centre is going to struggle to be popular enough to get in.

Exactly, they want a staunch left-wing/socialist PM, which we've never had, nor likely to ever have.

I’ve seen it the other way on twitter tbh.

All the Starmer stans spent the day moaning/gloating at folk who didn’t vote labour. Like, mission accomplished lads, go enjoy yourselves.

Think everyone behaved themselves pretty well. No riots after the election, no storming Westminster, nobody acting any differently outside.
I think if you’re not focused on political pages on social media it’s really not a big deal.