Bye bye Starmer

[Mito Man]

The whole debt thing gets even more out of whack on a global scale. Every country bar the odd tiny island is in debt.
Hyper inflation would just shaft the debt holders, so that’ll be people’s pensions, bonds etc.

My conclusion a long time ago was the only options are near infinite austerity or a generation of large scale government owned fossil fuel extraction with all profits going towards reducing the deficit.

[Broccers]

Is this where you lefties are crying?

[Jobbo]

I think the Tories are crying. But you interpret the results in your way

[GG.]

Its intersting - I was at a Christmas party last year and chatting to someone I've known for a long time - very moderate politically (as far as I know) and his view was that Reform would be in power at the next election.

Its always intersting at these parties with metropolitan lawyers, bankers and accountants as the standard MO seems to be you give the analysis with no normative judgment - i.e. everyone assumes that that would be a bad outcome and I expect that is how he viewed it (but can never be sure - he was a young guy, very metro, lives in central london so fair assumptions).

Listening to that I thought it was completely overblown and a bit of performative catastrophising - i.e. there would be no chance of swing like that... but now I actually think he was spot on. People voted labour in because they were sick of the tories but really Starmer's flavour of labour is complete anathema to the populace at large. I expect much really hangs on two v three way party splits in certain constituencies.

Reform are still (i think) in a position where they cannot be a force on their own but they are now certainly in a position where they could stop either party winning in almost any individual seat.

[Jobbo]

I don’t know how feasible it is, but with Farage’s structure of the party it’s possible to merge it with the Conservatives and for him to become leader - and thus next PM unless Starmer does something amazing.

It’s a harder task for Reform to become a viable party on their own. Possible, but surely easier if he can grab the areas which are still die-hard Tory voters.

[Simon]

I don't see Reform taking the next election. You ALWAYS get a protest vote at local elections against the incumbent government. Labour and Tories have both done badly, there's no question. Labour have lost seats to the Lib Dems in the south west, probably because they're fucking farmers over with their inheritance tax changes. And Tories are just a shit-show everywhere with an irrelevant leader and no sensible policies whatsoever. Rachel from accounts is incompetent even if Starmer is principled and decent. They were elected as the 'anti tories' who would bring about change but all they've really announced so far is tax rises, pay rises for some well unioned workers, and inviting the king felon over for a second state visit. It's not great optics. Yes, things take time to get done but they haven't really announced any good upcoming policy changes have they?

[Jobbo]

It would have been nice if Starmer had become our Mark Carney - maybe some trade deals would bring his approval ratings up. I think closer EU links and trade would actually be Starmer’s best option now, rather than chasing Reform’s policies.

It would be amusing and ironic if the general shift towards Reform were outweighed by a more pro-European movement.

[dinny_g]

Ferage is going to go the full Trump which will be entertaining at least given he’ll largely because spouting it from the sidelines

[Jobbo]

Dinny, Trump got in. That might happen here for Farage.

[Alex88]

I think this was more than a protest vote. Reform have been on the march for a while now.

What has surprised me is the demographic who are drawn to Reform. It isn't just Brexit pensioners who want the empire back, or people living in deprived areas who blame their woes on immigration, I even see young people vote reform... Business people who want less tax/more privatisation.. even quite moderate individuals who'd I'd not associate with Reform.

I think the typical Reform voter is drawn to them because they're the anti-immigration party. And immigration is obviously an issue, but they forget that Farage will also introduce policies that will fuck us all big time.

Can Starmer pull something out the bag? Don't think so, tbh. Hard to throw money at things that are important to communities when you're servicing trillions of debt and paying through the nose for an aging population.

[Rich B]

it’ll be interesting to see Reform having to put their money where their mouths are with the councils they’ve won. it’s easy sitting on the sidelines spouting about how rubbish everyone else is doing, harder actually having to do it. I suspect the wheels will fall off pretty quickly in most areas.

Has Farage actually held any constituency meetings since being elected? i get that the actual job was the last thing he actually wanted - all he wanted was a more prominent soap box to shout from, but he’s still got to do a job.

[Marv]

Dinny, Trump got in. That might happen here for Farage.

Yep, and don't forget Boris got in too...

[Alex88]

it’ll be interesting to see Reform having to put their money where their mouths are with the councils they’ve won. it’s easy sitting on the sidelines spouting about how rubbish everyone else is doing, harder actually having to do it. I suspect the wheels will fall off pretty quickly in most areas.

Has Farage actually held any constituency meetings since being elected? i get that the actual job was the last thing he actually wanted - all he wanted was a more prominent soap box to shout from, but he’s still got to do a job.

Yeah that's a good point. This will be the real acid test now that they're leading constituencies.

But I fully expect Farage to offload any blame for poor performance to whomever was running the show before they turned up. Just like Trump and the economy - when it was doing well under Biden, that's because of Trump. When it's bad under Trump, that's Biden's fault

And how on earth people like boxer Luke Campbell(!) will perform as mayor, I do not know.

[Gavster]

Farage gets the “he talks sense” popular vote which is a bloody massive vote, regardless of him being an absolute traitor to those same people

[Alex88]

That's the thing though, Farage and Reform literally couldn't care less about the average Joe and improving living standards for the majority. Hence why Clacton has seemingly been completely ignored! They were fooled.

Reform are just an anti-immigration, rip-up the state, pro-big business, make Farage the King party. Same as Trump, basically. And I'm concerned about us apparently being an election cycle being the yanks.

Will labour learn anything from this? I don't think so. They've gotten off to a poor start by alienating the pensioners by scrapping the winter fuel payment, and illegal migrants are arriving in higher numbers than under the Tories.

Farage does indeed has a way of communicating. His gift of gab has carried him the whole way.

[Alex88]

This trade deal with India is yet another gift to Farage and Reform..

[dinny_g]

That's the thing though, Farage and Reform literally couldn't care less about the average Joe and improving living standards for the majority. Hence why Clacton has seemingly been completely ignored! They were fooled.

Reform are just an anti-immigration, rip-up the state, pro-big business, make Farage the King party. Same as Trump, basically. And I'm concerned about us apparently being an election cycle being the yanks.

This, worryingly, leads back to Jobbo's point above.

Just like Trump, Farage will point to the person or group you don't like and promise to make their lives worse, rather than make yours better.

I still don't believe there are enough "England!!! Fuck yeah!!!" Billy Bob types to make this successful but I may be proven wrong. Best case for Reform is to gain enough seats and force a coalition.

Labour Tory Coalition... now there's be a thing...

[Mito Man]

That India trade deal is a joke

[Rich B]

[Alex88]

Christ