OV9

Best of luck with it Jimmy.


There’s some stuff which looks like shit and smells like shit going about. It seems odd to me how MPs and even Charles who are middle/older aged get this but recover in a week but there’s now much younger people dropping relatively frequently now or middle aged spending time in hospital.

Viral load, that's all I can think...

GWS Jimmy - don't let the media stories scare you, don't forget for every news story you read there are quite literally tens-of-thousands who have nothing more than cold or mild flu symptoms. Rest, get some decent food and drink plenty.

Mito Man wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:13 pm There’s some stuff which looks like shit and smells like shit going about. It seems odd to me how MPs and even Charles who are middle/older aged get this but recover in a week but there’s now much younger people dropping relatively frequently now or middle aged spending time in hospital.

As above, what we're seeing in the media is only ever the worst-case stuff of hospitalisations and deaths. Even at 60+ the odds are still very much in your favour that you'll see nothing more than mild symptoms.

Orange Cola wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:12 pm

Broccers wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:50 pm Have you noticed the media don't say what strain when a death occurs? I'm really not believing this is strictly kosha.

You know there's summat up when Jamie Oliver suddenly has a show telling people how to live on war rations.

Broccers wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:14 pm

Orange Cola wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:12 pm

Broccers wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:50 pm Have you noticed the media don't say what strain when a death occurs? I'm really not believing this is strictly kosha.

You know there's summat up when Jamie Oliver suddenly has a show telling people how to live on war rations.

A family of 4 could eat for a week on his tongue.

Simon wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:45 pm Viral load, that's all I can think...

Some papers a week or so ago were going on about there being multiple strains, some mild and some severe. Who knows if it's bollocks though. I imagine there's a lot that we aren't being told and a lot that's just conjecture from the media.

Mito Man wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:13 pm Best of luck with it Jimmy.


There’s some stuff which looks like shit and smells like shit going about. It seems odd to me how MPs and even Charles who are middle/older aged get this but recover in a week but there’s now much younger people dropping relatively frequently now or middle aged spending time in hospital.

You do understand how percentages work don't you? In people over 70 the death rate might be 8%, in 60-69s 4%, 50-59 2%, 10-19 0.1%

100 people over 70 get it, 8 will die, 92 will be ok. 1000 people under 20 might get it, one might die, 999 would be ok.

They are made up numbers, I don't know the actual figures off the top of my head but have seen various charts with a similar rising rate as age increases.

No surprise that we're more likely to hear about famous people getting it, but they only make up a small proportion of the people who actually get it.

Of course BoJo and Charlie are more likely to get tested even only showing mild symtoms. Any of us normals had similar mild symptoms we would be very unlikely to get tested or ever know whether we've had it or not.

I’m not expecting an older person to die obviously, I’m just surprised that they’re recovering so quickly as the hospitalisation rate of over 50’s is pretty high.

Broccers wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:15 pm Apparently central Africa has 5 million people.

Guess how many ventilators?

Three. Source aljazeera news

How many people have travelled between China ( or Italy) and central Africa in the past few months? What's the population density there? How well travelled and connected are they?

Doesn't take a lot of imagination to understand why some places are worse hit than others does it?

3 ventilators? They better hope it doesn't really take hold.

I read north Italy had it's issues due to a Chinese workforce arriving and they were told to embrace them. Being Italian they gave a massive hug. New York has lots of Italians. Simple my viewing on life.

I read that too, also that’s where all the sweatshops are and the Chinese workforce had just returned from their New Year.
Italians also do that hug kiss kiss thing when greeting so it spread very easily.

Yes, I'm hoping our naturally stand-offish British ways will have slowed the spread down slightly compared to some of our European neighbours, but then some of those brought in stricter distancing measures sooner and their population seemed more willing to listen to them.

Once you're more than a few days in it doesn't really matter whether it started with one case or 20, it just shifts the curve along a few days as the numbers soon ramp up massively. If one person infects three, and each of those infect three, who infect another three then that's 40 people in three steps, which could be just over a weeks difference.

Broccers wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:50 pm I read north Italy had it's issues due to a Chinese workforce arriving and they were told to embrace them. Being Italian they gave a massive hug. New York has lots of Italians. Simple my viewing on life.

In all seriousness, I’ve worked in Italy and not a day went by when I didn’t get at least 5 ‘continental Air kiss’ on each cheek - a stark contrast to here where people feel weird if you shake their hand these days.

Gws Jimmy.

Rich B wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:08 pm She got dressed, got in the car and drove round the corner before sneaking back in this morning.

Won't anyone think of the cold starts?!

Hmm, I'm sure I read something in here which was a bit of a rant and wondered why people were so worked up about something that's 'only like flu'

On average flu ( or complications from it ) kills 600 people a year in the uk, and flu season runs from October to April, so simplify that to 5 full months, that's very roughly 4 deaths a day.

2008-2009 they estimate 11,000 died, I seem to remember they got the strain for the vaccine wrong? Anyway, even that works out at 'only' 78 deaths a day.

Is it really any surprise that the government are a bit worried about it? It's not going to be long before we're up to Italy levels per day, and estimating another 2 weeks before the peak before the effects of social distancing have an effect.

1700 people a year die on the roads, yet we have speed limits covering every mile of every road in the uk, laws to make us wear seat belts and our cars are filled with crash avoidance and injury reducing measures.

We've equalled that in the last 14 days.

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

It's ok though, it's just flu, carry on as normal.

Mito Man wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:20 pm I’m not expecting an older person to die obviously, I’m just surprised that they’re recovering so quickly as the hospitalisation rate of over 50’s is pretty high.

How do you know the hospitalisation rate is high? Nobody knows how many people have had/got it. You do talk some shite Mito.

Jimmy Choo wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:30 pm

Jobbo wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:17 am How close to you lot is Coronavirus reaching?

I developed the cough last night, it's become persistent today and my temperature is rising.

I'm now self isolating from my kids.

GWS mate. Hope the symptoms are mild for you.

duncs500 wrote: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:29 am

Mito Man wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:20 pm I’m not expecting an older person to die obviously, I’m just surprised that they’re recovering so quickly as the hospitalisation rate of over 50’s is pretty high.

How do you know the hospitalisation rate is high? Nobody knows how many people have had/got it. You do talk some shite Mito.

We know how many people go in each day and their age groups.

I wouldn’t be surprised if they held off announcing Prince Charles’s diagnosis until they knew whether he was going to be ok or not. Which would explain why he seems to be on the mend quite quickly.