OV9

V8Granite wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 pm Around Bridgnorth has been the same, at Marks and Spencer’s and Co-op just polite and sensible people.

Marks were pretty much fully stocked aswell.

Dave!

What are you doing in Bridgnorth? No holidaying or visiting second homes allowed. You may incur the wrath.

General Motors starts negotiating ventilator prices, Donald Trump has enough and forces them to make them for free using the Defence Production Act

Jobbo wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:34 pm

V8Granite wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 pm Around Bridgnorth has been the same, at Marks and Spencer’s and Co-op just polite and sensible people.

Marks were pretty much fully stocked aswell.

Dave!

What are you doing in Bridgnorth? No holidaying or visiting second homes allowed. You may incur the wrath.

The project I’m on is only around 5 miles away and I have to drive through it to get to my cottage.

Sadly my many second homes are not in Bridgnorth so I’m not flouting any rules. Now if I was on my way to Monaco then I may be in trouble.

Dave!

So this is pretty horrifying. Note, this graph is log scale.

NotoriousREV wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:39 am So this is pretty horrifying. Note, this graph is log scale.C848B091-C8B4-4708-A2FD-D97D098957CC.jpeg

Because they shift the start point to the point of the 10th death which Is irrelevant for the number of infections. It should start from the date of first infection. It’s not half as bad for the uk when you start at that point and the log scale actually makes it even worse.

I thought this video was very good, especially as it graphs new cases against total cases on a log

Anyway we’re not looking good no matter how you draw the graph..,

drcarlos wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:54 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:39 am So this is pretty horrifying. Note, this graph is log scale.C848B091-C8B4-4708-A2FD-D97D098957CC.jpeg

Because they shift the start point to the point of the 10th death which Is irrelevant for the number of infections. It should start from the date of first infection. It’s not half as bad for the uk when you start at that point and the log scale actually makes it even worse.

Starting from 10 deaths is standard practice for this kind of data.

NotoriousREV wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:04 am

drcarlos wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:54 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:39 am So this is pretty horrifying. Note, this graph is log scale.C848B091-C8B4-4708-A2FD-D97D098957CC.jpeg

Because they shift the start point to the point of the 10th death which Is irrelevant for the number of infections. It should start from the date of first infection. It’s not half as bad for the uk when you start at that point and the log scale actually makes it even worse.

Starting from 10 deaths is standard practice for this kind of data.

Doesn’t make it correct, It’s not relevant in this case as we are looking at spread of the virus from when it was detected in a country and not modelling fatalities from when the 10th occurred. If we were looking at the number of fatalities it may present a valid start point. They are falsely using the data point from one model to use as the start point for another model that is measuring something different. It’s Comparing apples and oranges. It does though present a graph that will scare that fuck out of everyone, generate more clicks and shares too.

Edit-
Just realised I read the graph wrong on my phone, I was thinking it was another one of the graphs that aligned number of infections based on day 10. I still don't agree with the 10 death alignment start point (UK 1091 infections vs Italy 322). All countries noted first infection on the same day and there are too many variables and assumptions of demographic (things noted a couple of posts down) made to create a stable baseline, the only true baseline that is reliable and doesn't need assumption is patient zero day.

For the purposes of paragraph (1), the place where a person is living includes the premises where they live together with any garden, yard, passage, stair, garage, outhouse or other appurtenance of such premises

Well that clears up that bit from earlier in the thread.

Graphs don't look good however you arrange it. I heard it so many times, Italy has an older population, they travel more, it couldn't possibly happen here etc etc.

Still got another week before the results ( if any ) of stricter social distancing kicks in. Where are we going to be then? Roughly 800 deaths a day?

Yeah, but it's 'only like flu'

There were eight deaths in intensive care units in the week to 8 December where flu was a factor – the highest number this season and taking the total death toll for the UK to 15 over a nine-week period.

Which was a high enough death rate for the chief medical officer to issue an alert.

integrale_evo wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:25 am Graphs don't look good however you arrange it. I heard it so many times, Italy has an older population, they travel more, it couldn't possibly happen here etc etc.

Still got another week before the results ( if any ) of stricter social distancing kicks in. Where are we going to be then? Roughly 800 deaths a day?

Yeah, but it's 'only like flu'

There were eight deaths in intensive care units in the week to 8 December where flu was a factor – the highest number this season and taking the total death toll for the UK to 15 over a nine-week period.

Which was a high enough death rate for the chief medical officer to issue an alert.

Italy had a large influx of Chinese workers around the end of January and locals in florence were actively encouraged to hug a Chinese to quell any racial tensions because of the virus, also they are not as sanitary as the uk (and we are both lagging japan massively). At the end of the say Spain, italy and the uk all had our first confirmed case on the same day. It remains to be seen if our graph is going to follow.
Taking day zero as the baseline, I have modelled it and we are obviously climbing but the line is much flatter so far.
It would seem people are far happier to share the more pessimistic plots though.

Shopping Update...

Local Grocers just delivered a box load of fresh fruit, Veg and Eggs.

Sainsbury’s Click and Collect booked in for Monday. Pretty much full stock. We’ll see what I actually get though

Waitrose was ace yesterday. Hardly any cunt in there, shelves were stocked, seemingly no rules on quantity of things purchased (certainly not wine anyway). The best thing was that the ginger security guard who normally hates me, as I keep pretending to be a shoplifter to wind him up, had to open the door for me and call me sir

Heard Lidl was very quiet and fully stocked with an abundance of fresh produce. Goats will be very happy tonight as they’ll have apples and carrots as a treat.

drcarlos wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:16 am

NotoriousREV wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:04 am

drcarlos wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:54 am

Because they shift the start point to the point of the 10th death which Is irrelevant for the number of infections. It should start from the date of first infection. It’s not half as bad for the uk when you start at that point and the log scale actually makes it even worse.

Starting from 10 deaths is standard practice for this kind of data.

Doesn’t make it correct, It’s not relevant in this case

Be sure to let the WHO and all the Epidemiologists know that they’re doing it wrong

So our curve is slowing whereas the US is accelerating by the looks of that one? Difficult to tell with the log scale.

Rich B wrote: Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:47 pm So our curve is slowing whereas the US is accelerating by the looks of that one? Difficult to tell with the log scale.

The shape of the US curve (getting steeper) means it is accelerating; that’s easy to see. But if you add today’s UK data point I think ours is accelerating too

So 33,000 beds for covid here, if all the confirmed cases are pretty much hospital interns then that’s gonna be filled up in a week, and the temporary hospitals within days after that.
Only 135 recovered too.