OV9

I can reasonably see a campaign for a decent flavour of PR using the post 2010 period of politics - more extremism in politics, brexit, the utterly woeful last years of the conservative party, some truly terrible policies being pushed through by majorities based on tactical and protest voting - to support it.

I really don't think that'd be a particularly hard sell for many, many people.

dinny_g wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:41 pm How would PR work in the UK ??

I guess the same as it works in other countries where they use whatever flavour of PR we'd want to go with...?

Ireland has multi seat constituencies - 3, 4 or 5 seats. You vote 1, 2, 3 in favour of your preference. There is a Quota defined based on the constituency size and after each count, candidates who haven't made the quota are eliminated and their votes distributed.

This continues until 3, 4 or 5 candidates make the quota.

This works in Ireland as it's small and there are only 160 seats in the Dail. I can't see how that could be applied here without having huge constituencies

Cons lost our seat big to Labour, although the boundary changes make it hard to judge Labour obviously saw the opportunity and really put a lot into it. I want impressed by their candidate from first impressions but I'll see how he goes. I am delighted the JRM went, he represents everything that's wrong with the Tories.

All in all, I feel ok with it all. KS is an earnest and intelligent guy, running a county is a serious business and I feel like he'll take it seriously. When you've got people like Trump in the US I feel some satisfaction that in some weird way it feels like politics in the UK is just back to normal.

Conservatives stayed in where I live. Mainly I think due to his sensible canvassing and him concentrating on our local issues.

Let’s see what changes happen in the next few years!

Dave!

An overly simplistic calculation of 6.5 seats per 1% voter share leads to a much more interesting parliament tbh.

Labour = 219
Con = 154
Reform = 93
Lib Dem = 79
Green = 44
SNP = 15

It falls apart a bit around the indies as they would have 15 seats between 6 mps, room to spread out

Like I say, not a realistic implementation of PR but it shows how much of a danger reform would be under it.

That wouldn't be the distribution in a PR election of course so not a good basis for what-ifs. But: hung parliament, possible Lib/Lab pact still wouldn't reach 326 seats (or 321 excluding Sinn Fein) and they'd need the greens or some combo of Plaid/SNP/whoever.

Excellent work:

I was interested to see Suella Braverman's acceptance speech, where she basically threw the Tory party under the bus - "I;m sorry/We didn;t listen/We're out of touch".

I wonder if it foreshadows a splintering of the current Conservative Party and the emergence of something with Reform-like intentions but a bit more credibility.

New cabinet looks alright bar Milibend & Rayner.

Any reaction from the Markets today??

dinny_g wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 5:37 pm Any reaction from the Markets today??

I had a notification first thing this morning that the markets were unchanged - obviously a fairly predictable result.

Wait for the budget.

Been thinking further about the effect if Farage had kept out of it. There would have presumably been more votes for the Lib Dems as the traditional solace for people who didn’t want to switch to Labour. If we assume that no extra votes would have been cast for the Tories - which seems likely since you’d have to actively want to have voted for them it seems - then either total turnout would have been lower or the Lib Dems could have won more seats. Reform’s existence prevented the Tories from being beaten by the Lib Dems. Strange but true.

I think I must be misunderstanding what you're saying...

Are you now implying Reform Voters would have voted Lib Dem if the option of voting for Reform was not available?

I think the Tory - Lib Dem - Reform floating voter is someone who almost by definition does not exist!

I asked the question in the other thread, who would the disillusioned Tory voters vote for if reform didn't exist?

Like my Mum? Didn't vote, stayed at home.... But many would've voted Tory reluctantly.

I'm fairly sure we'd have a Tory here without reform (Lib Dem 21k, Tory 15.5k, Reform 7k). Or it'd have been really close.

GG. wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:49 pm I think I must be misunderstanding what you're saying...

Are you now implying Reform Voters would have voted Lib Dem if the option of voting for Reform was not available?

I think the Tory - Lib Dem - Reform floating voter is someone who almost by definition does not exist!

It is statistics not identifying individuals. As Rich says, who would the voter who wants to vote against the Tories choose if they didn’t want to vote Labour?

Simon, if people wanted to vote Tory, even reluctantly, they’d have turned out on Thursday. The evidence is that they didn’t. A loss of 7m votes.

All this talk aside, why aren't we discussing the polling of No.10's other resident?