OV9

Well our lib dem guy won link and although we are a new constituency, I believe it's because he actually made and effort and got out there to ask people to vote for him. He's ex army, stand up guy, local born and not a lunatic.

Selfishly, I'm pleased to see the SNP getting thoroughly rinsed, so hopefully there can be more focus on fixing the many issues with Scotland rather than making everything about, and blaming everything on, independence.

Agree about this being an election that Tories lost and therefore power was handed to Labour. Starmer has a huge challenge to take decisive action if he wants to move past a single term. Meanwhile, Reform is absolutely on course to continue growing over the next few years unless the Conservatives sort out their own in-fighting and self-centred idiocy.

Gavster wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:05 am Meanwhile, Reform is absolutely on course to continue growing over the next few years unless the Conservatives sort out their own in-fighting and self-centred idiocy.

do you think? The only seats they won were their "big names" (farage, tice, Anderson) who campaigned heavily. I think they'll slope off and get renamed after whatever big issue is prevalent in the next GE.

Ascender wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:47 am Selfishly, I'm pleased to see the SNP getting thoroughly rinsed, so hopefully there can be more focus on fixing the many issues with Scotland rather than making everything about, and blaming everything on, independence.

They had thoroughly failed Scotland and the Scots were completely justified in booting them out. I didn’t expect to see such a big loss though.

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:18 am

Gavster wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:05 am Meanwhile, Reform is absolutely on course to continue growing over the next few years unless the Conservatives sort out their own in-fighting and self-centred idiocy.

do you think? The only seats they won were their "big names" (farage, tice, Anderson) who campaigned heavily. I think they'll slope off and get renamed after whatever big issue is prevalent in the next GE.

Four million people voted for them which isn’t to be sniffed at, 14% of the total vote. I think a lot of that is protest vote against the Conservatives and my assumption is that time out of power and an opportunity to regroup will draw those votes back to the tories.

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:18 am do you think? The only seats they won were their "big names" (farage, tice, Anderson) who campaigned heavily. I think they'll slope off and get renamed after whatever big issue is prevalent in the next GE.

This...

And those reform lot will likely be ineffective, feckless MPs, to boot.

Can you imagine Farage or Anderson actually turning up to constituent meetings to listen to some old bat moaning about the fences around the local park? Fat chance.

I know it's always thus but the massive landslide really shines a light on the Number of Seats vs Number of Votes situation.

Lib Dem vs Reform in particular

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:18 am

Gavster wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:05 am Meanwhile, Reform is absolutely on course to continue growing over the next few years unless the Conservatives sort out their own in-fighting and self-centred idiocy.

do you think? The only seats they won were their "big names" (farage, tice, Anderson) who campaigned heavily. I think they'll slope off and get renamed after whatever big issue is prevalent in the next GE.

I think Reform will grow for a few reasons. Firstly, they get a LOT of votes, despite only winning two seats. Secondly, there has been a general rise in far-right politics across Europe and despite Farage's manifesto being sketched out on the back of a fag pack after a two-bottle lunch, it will resonate with a vast amount of disillusioned right-wing voters. Especially those older ones, who actually go and vote. Farage is the biggest personality in politics, and now that he's an MP, he will be all over the press and interviews for the next five years which as a PR strategy will win even more voters. I'm not expecting Reform to ever get a parliamentary majority, but they're absolutely the most 'Tory' right-wing party with a strong, popularist message out there right now.

Gavster wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:41 am

Rich B wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:18 am

Gavster wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:05 am Meanwhile, Reform is absolutely on course to continue growing over the next few years unless the Conservatives sort out their own in-fighting and self-centred idiocy.

do you think? The only seats they won were their "big names" (farage, tice, Anderson) who campaigned heavily. I think they'll slope off and get renamed after whatever big issue is prevalent in the next GE.

I think Reform will grow for a few reasons. Firstly, they get a LOT of votes, despite only winning two seats.

they won 4 seats. They basically got votes as a big fuck you to "politics". They didn't have any actual manifesto - they aren't a proper party and just like UKIP, Brexit, etc, they are 2024s protest vote.

Reform have momentum on their side, and a noisy mouthpiece to capitalise on it. The Tories could well lose the next election as well whatever Kier does if they take the fight to Nigel and waste time splitting their vote with Reform. I don't think the remaining parliamentary party of the Tories are sufficiently cohesive or keen to join forces with him. So marginalising him and moving back towards the centre ground is their better option to rebuild. Whether they'll do that or not, I don't know.

Regarding the granularity of the individual constituencies, I am gratified to see (mostly) that people have voted for candidates who actually seem to care about their constituents and spend time there. It's also not that helpful to compare results from 2019 since that election was lost by Corbyn as much as it was won by Boris.

The next leadership battle for the Tories should be interesting. It's a pretty small (and incredibly shallow) talent pool they have to fish in now!

2019 was Brexit vs Corbyn.

Folkestone, Dover Labour now but reform came in second.
Kensington and Chelsea Labour now.
Also looks like those Lib Dem signs outside everyone’s houses in Surrey were accurate. Whole region now Lib Dem - in fact most of the very posh areas seem to be

Are there rules on constituency sizes here or are some vastly bigger or smaller than others ?

Mito Man wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:26 am 2019 was Brexit vs Corbyn.

Folkestone, Dover Labour now but reform came in second.
Kensington and Chelsea Labour now.
Also looks like those Lib Dem signs outside everyone’s houses in Surrey were accurate. Whole region now Lib Dem - in fact most of the very posh areas seem to be

whys that funny?

Not forgetting that a large portion of the reform voters will likely have died by the next GE anyway.

The gushing from various labour MPs about what a wonderful leader Kier is and how he has transformed and united the party as the results came in last night was really getting on my moobs. They only increased their share by 1.6%, hardly feels like a revolution, just shows how fed up of the other lot most voters are.

integrale_evo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:39 am The gushing from various labour MPs about what a wonderful leader Kier is and how he has transformed and united the party as the results came in last night was really getting on my moobs. They only increased their share by 1.6%, hardly feels like a revolution, just shows how fed up of the other lot most voters are.

Labour primarily 'won the race' because the other participants smashed their own legs with hammers and blamed it on immigrants. I'm not saying Labour didn't win at least partly on merit, but the right is such a mess at the moment that if they didn't win with a massive landslide, they should have just fucking disbanded.

Certainly has little to do with Starmer.

Jobbo wrote: Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:37 am
Now, time for the Tories to rebuild and realise that they’ve lost more votes to Labour than Reform - so move towards the centre not the far right.

I don't know how you draw that conclusion really. All the swing graphics I've seen for Tory seats have shown a very small shift to labour and a third or half the tory vote going to reform. The exact opposite of what you're saying.