Page 53 of 63
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:24 am
by duncs500
Sundayjumper wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:05 am
duncs500 wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 12:16 pm
Sundayjumper wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 10:30 am
They won’t use them with nuclear payloads.
One would hope not!
I just mean, something like that pops up into the stratosphere and I'm sure a few bells and whistles start going off.
It appears it was actually an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), and was used:
a) as an attempt at a show of strength
b) because they're running out of more appropriate weapons
Yeah, saw that. Early reports were claiming ICBM, the fact that they're calling it an 'experimental' one probably means what? Hypersonic?
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:35 am
by Sundayjumper
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:24 am
...the fact that they're calling it an 'experimental' one probably means what?
That they're not in production and they've only got two, maybe three, of them on hand
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:36 am
by ZedLeg
Or that it’s such a hodge podge homebrew that they can’t tell what it is.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:37 am
by Sundayjumper
ZedLeg wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:36 am
Or that it’s such a hodge podge homebrew that they can’t tell what it is.
That too
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:47 am
by duncs500
I know that the Russian military has been garbage, but I suspect that the fact being so exposed during this war has meant they will have improved it a lot. Being in proper war like this will inevitably sharpen their instruments of war.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
by duncs500
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:02 pm
by Swervin_Mervin
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
I imagine the West will have learned an awful lot as well though. It's not like Ukraine will have been masterminding everything themselves...
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:04 pm
by ZedLeg
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
The problem is that even if that is true, they don’t have any soldiers.
They’re conscripting prisoners and importing soldiers from NK.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:09 pm
by Sundayjumper
Ukraine has learned a hell of a lot, and received a lot of direct Western training too. 50k troops trained by the UK alone under Op Interflex, and all of those people will have passed on knowledge to their colleagues on their return.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:56 pm
by Matty
ZedLeg wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:04 pm
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
The problem is that even if that is true, they don’t have any soldiers.
They’re conscripting prisoners and importing soldiers from NK.
They've plenty of bodies to throw though. Ultimately it's a numbers game, they don't need to be trained....throw the prisoners and untrained into the firing line then follow up with the trained soldiers. It's the Zapp Brannigan approach.
They're claiming 300k killed or injured, which is insane, but they've plenty more. No doubt the official word back home is that it's a 1/10th of that.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:06 pm
by Sundayjumper
Far more than 300k. These are the numbers quoted by the Kyiv Independent.
- a8d1d73a-1f34-4fea-b077-4b2a21032c1b.png (105.71 KiB) Viewed 6482 times
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:37 pm
by Simon
Those numbers are wrong. Ukraine has converted several russian ships to special submarines already.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:38 pm
by ZedLeg
Losing 730k troops in a modern war is lunacy.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:38 pm
by duncs500
Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:02 pm
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
I imagine the West will have learned an awful lot as well though. It's not like Ukraine will have been masterminding everything themselves...
Certainly hope so, and I'm sure it shapes our training and defence policy. I just imagine there's some pretty battle hardened commanders and military capability on the Russian side which I think it would be unwise to underestimate.
Edit - Whilst it is entirely plausible to me that a country with endemic corruption not expecting any significant war might have dilapidated equipment, nuclear arsenal etc. It's not so plausible that a country in a bitter war for two years (corrupt or not) would not have addressed some of that malaise.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:40 pm
by Mito Man
If you take the Russian male only birth rate, and then deduct half as not fit enough and required for other jobs. The remaining half would easily cover all the troop losses. If Putin imposes a proper conscription system on everyone and not just prisoners and ethnic minorities then the troop losses so far are pretty insignificant.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:50 pm
by ZedLeg
I feel like treating soldiers like a gdp per capita calculation is the wrong angle tbh.
Just throwing people at the opposition like it’s leningrad in 41 is incredibly wasteful.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:03 pm
by Swervin_Mervin
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:38 pm
Swervin_Mervin wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 12:02 pm
duncs500 wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 8:50 am
The commanders on the ground (that have survived!) will probably be a strategic match for anyone we've got in terms of modern warfare. I'd say there's no substitute for experience and having to evolve to stay alive.
I imagine the West will have learned an awful lot as well though. It's not like Ukraine will have been masterminding everything themselves...
Certainly hope so, and I'm sure it shapes our training and defence policy. I just imagine there's some pretty battle hardened commanders and military capability on the Russian side which I think it would be unwise to underestimate.
Edit - Whilst it is entirely plausible to me that a country with endemic corruption not expecting any significant war might have dilapidated equipment, nuclear arsenal etc. It's not so plausible that a country in a bitter war for two years (corrupt or not) would not have addressed some of that malaise.
I wonder how many of those battle hardened senior personnel are exactly the sort that Putin also won't want coming home or getting anywhere near him. You'd think a few might be human enough to be incredibly bitter at scale of loss of life on their side.
As for arms, isn't it Kyrgyzstan that they're all coming through to avoid sanctions. Great for UK and US business, and you do wonder if Trump will pull the plug if he has a few defence sector leaders leaning on him
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:33 pm
by Sundayjumper
ZedLeg wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 1:38 pm
Losing 730k troops in a modern war is lunacy.
Not when you're happy to lose millions just to avoid admitting you were wrong. 730k is loose change.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:44 pm
by ZedLeg
Yeah, I get that. It just runs counter to all accepted thought on modern warfare tactics.
Re: Ukraine
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:54 pm
by duncs500
ZedLeg wrote: Fri Nov 22, 2024 2:44 pm
Yeah, I get that. It just runs counter to all accepted thought on modern warfare tactics.
It is indeed mental. I guess from Putin's point of view it appears to be (belatedly) working. You have to extract any humanity from the equation though, which Putin seems more than capable of doing.