Which?
- DeskJockey
- Posts: 4803
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:58 am
Re: Which?
Can I have a penny which doubles in value every day for a month?
How about not having a sig at all?
- DeskJockey
- Posts: 4803
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:58 am
Re: Which?
RIP Which? Magazine, which is what I assume you're referring to as you even when to the extent of including the question mark.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Which%3F
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Which%3F
Re: Which?
So just under £2.7m even in February in a non-leap year. Probably worth getting the full £21.47m by taking it in a 31 day month. Not quite the question mik was asking.
Purely on statistical analysis, there's an obvious reason to go for the second option in mik's poll: the expected winnings are £5m. But the chance of getting nothing means I'd obviously take the £1m guaranteed. It's a nice sum and the considerations in this sort of gamble are different to just maximising the statistical outcome.
Re: Which?
Jobbo is correct. I like my life, £1m would really enhance it without fundamentally changing it. Assuming you win the £10m, everything changes, and it could go both ways in terms of happiness IMO.
Re: Which?
Agreed. I'm not sure what I'd choose! Probably still the £100k, I'm not much of a gambler.
Re: Which?
Re: Which?
- Swervin_Mervin
- Posts: 4785
- Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:58 pm
Re: Which?
When do I get my £million @mik ?
Re: Which?
£100k would pay my mortgage off and a huge boost to my pension, not worth the gamble for me.
Re: Which?
Looks like I'm one of two who would take the coin toss. You're looking at the difference between a nice house, vs never working again and your children never having to work either, if invested properly. That's worth a shot for me.
The artist formerly known as _Who_
Re: Which?
I have a bottle waiting for you here - just pop over dude.
Re: Which?
Wow. The results of the poll fly in the face of the widely accepted theory that people are risk-loving on potential gains, but risk-averse on potential losses. And not just a little bit either!
Personally, I'd go for the coin flip every time. Average expected outcome of £5m vs £1m seems a no-brainer to me
ETA - If anyone's actually interested, here's the famous prospect theory paper from Kahneman (who wrote "Thinking Fast and Slow") and Tversky .
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185
Personally, I'd go for the coin flip every time. Average expected outcome of £5m vs £1m seems a no-brainer to me
ETA - If anyone's actually interested, here's the famous prospect theory paper from Kahneman (who wrote "Thinking Fast and Slow") and Tversky .
https://www.jstor.org/stable/1914185
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough"
- Swervin_Mervin
- Posts: 4785
- Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:58 pm
Re: Which?
Fuck that - my child can work and learn the value of £
- Swervin_Mervin
- Posts: 4785
- Joined: Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:58 pm