Ukraine

[jamcg]

https://www.tiktok.com/@military.u.k/vi ... =copy&_r=1

[Beany]

https://www.tiktok.com/@military.u.k/vi ... =copy&_r=1

I'm not even going to start on Israel protesting an occupying force targeting civilians. My hypocrisy meter broke at the mere concept of it

[Peterlplp]

Jesus fuck I hope the American people vote these absolute fucking clowns out in the mid terms.

The squabbling over the jets really makes no sense because they could just use the Jewish Space Laser.

[duncs500]

At this stage, I'd genuinely think it's worth calling Russia's bluff on the nukes because the command and control endpoints are probabky on a coin op meter for power to save electricity costs.

And no one's put a 1 ruble coin in there for twenty years...

"But think about it Ivan, if we don't put the coin in the meter, that's an extra ruble a day for us!"

The more I hear about Russian military tactics, response and operational performance (like demonstrably still not having air superiority, regardless of what they say), the more I think calling Russia's bluff is an effective strategy. Andy I'm far from a war hawk - I'm being realistic.

I'd bet that out of '6000' warheads, barely 10% of that is capable of surviving launch, never mind re-entry.

And I'd bet that even Russia don't know which 10% that is.

That's a hell of a high stake gamble Beany!

What if the only area they really invested a lot of effort was their nuclear arsenal? What if the nuclear units have a bit more pride and take their jobs a bit more seriously? What if they realise only 10% work so fire all of them just to be safe?

Seems like a narrow window of likelihood that we would avoid disaster by getting into that to me. I hereby withdraw my support for you for PM.

[Beany]

Yeah, apparently wine turns me into a war hawk

[Gavster]

At this stage, I'd genuinely think it's worth calling Russia's bluff on the nukes because the command and control endpoints are probabky on a coin op meter for power to save electricity costs.

And no one's put a 1 ruble coin in there for twenty years...

"But think about it Ivan, if we don't put the coin in the meter, that's an extra ruble a day for us!"

The more I hear about Russian military tactics, response and operational performance (like demonstrably still not having air superiority, regardless of what they say), the more I think calling Russia's bluff is an effective strategy. Andy I'm far from a war hawk - I'm being realistic.

I'd bet that out of '6000' warheads, barely 10% of that is capable of surviving launch, never mind re-entry.

And I'd bet that even Russia don't know which 10% that is.

That's a hell of a high stake gamble Beany!

What if the only area they really invested a lot of effort was their nuclear arsenal? What if the nuclear units have a bit more pride and take their jobs a bit more seriously? What if they realise only 10% work so fire all of them just to be safe?

Seems like a narrow window of likelihood that we would avoid disaster by getting into that to me. I hereby withdraw my support for you for PM.

I agree with Beany to a certain degree, becuase if Putin has been siphoning money to himself and his cronies whilst letting the military crumble, then this war is going to come down to some very high stakes brinksmanship to test that theory, but frankly, that might be the only way out.

[duncs500]

I understand the theory, but that plan also relies on Putin being both aware (we've seen theories that he's surrounded by yes men who may be extolling the might of the Russian military), and of sound and rational mind (also highly questionable).

[Sundayjumper]

And. Of those 6,000 warheads you only need 1% to detonate (anywhere, not even on their targets) plus the US retaliation, and all the comments of the war so far changing the world will turn out to be the biggest understatement in history.

And. When we talk about nuclear weapons, it’s not just BFO ICBMs. There’s all manner of smaller “tactical” devices. Have you ever seen the size of a single Trident warhead ? It’s actually tiny, relatively. It would fit in a large hold-all. The rest of the rocket is just the delivery mechanism.

[Beany]

Yeah, I was talking shite last night I suspect

[Foz]

[Swervin_Mervin]

Interesting thread

[duncs500]

I'm sure as a massive consumer of natural resources and a massive technological exporter, China will be only too delighted to step in to the void left by the west!

[Beany]

His Thread of Threads looks like it has some interesting stuff in it too. A thread, containing threads

[Beany]

I'm sure as a massive consumer of natural resources and a massive technological exporter, China will be only too delighted to step in to the void left by the west!

The interesting side on that is that the thread above suggests that China will basically be grubbing them on exports (because it's good PR for Russia to appear to have other export markets, which is more valuable politically than the actual money, as it were) and that there's a not unreasonable chance China remember when the USSR fucked them over on trade and support when they were in a bad shape - and that they might use this situation for a bit of revenge on that front; turnaround is fair play, and all that.

Certainly, China absolutely haven't been cheerleading for Russia; they might be an authoritarian state, but thier behaviour seems to suggest that they're being geopolitically realistic at this stage, unlike Russia who seem to be, internally, fully high on the smell of thier own farts.

[jamcg]

I'm sure as a massive consumer of natural resources and a massive technological exporter, China will be only too delighted to step in to the void left by the west!

Read the full thread- he says china still has the hump from mistreatment by the ussr, so will try to run the price down so it’s not profitable, in no small part due to massive corruption stemming right from Putin

Edit- beany beat me to it

[duncs500]

Yeah, I should have put in the caveat that I only had time to read the headlines.

I'll have a read later.

[Beany]

Current rumours are that Ukraine has downed anywhere from 5 to 7 aircraft in three last 30 hours.

Guessing those man portable anti aircraft weapons have arrived in earnest then.

[Sundayjumper]

There was a nice - and somewhat shocking because there’s no chance anyone got out alive - clip of a helicopter getting shot down with a rocket.

[Mito Man]

There was a nice - and somewhat shocking because there’s no chance anyone got out alive - clip of a helicopter getting shot down with a rocket.

I saw that and my first thought was the helicopter is heading for a crash right on top of the guy who fired the rocket!

[duncs500]

I'll have a read later.

I've read it, it's highly speculative. I'm not buying the bit about China revenge for treatment by USSR, China are much more pragmatic than that. The time taken to switch to a more Eastern facing market and the state of the economy by the time they do is fair I think, as is China being in a very strong negotiating position and driving down prices.

China are in such a strong position that they may see it as advantageous to prop up their neighbour somewhat though for strategic reasons.