World financial doom

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Orange Cola
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Orange Cola »

Where’s shit at the minute then, Trump, China and Brexit?
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NotoriousREV
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Re: World financial doom

Post by NotoriousREV »

Excessive borrowing and the spectre of rising interest rates.
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Nefarious
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Nefarious »

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:38 pm
Nefarious wrote: Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:06 pm
NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:16 pm There's just so much uncertainty around at the moment. Don't sell anything. When prices go down, you buy!

If you buy 100 shares at £1 each and they drop to £0.50, you need the price to go back up by £0.51 to make a profit. If you buy another 100 shares at £0.50, you've paid an average of £0.75 per share and you only need a £0.26 price rise to make a profit.
Doubling down. Brave man's game... :shock:

Another strategy: Suck up the £50 loss you've just made on the £1 shares, and stick your other £50 into something that's not just lost 50% of it's value.
I personally only bother with indices these days. I don’t think the S&P500 is going anywhere soon 😂

I’m also making the assumption you’re only holding shares you’ve done the appropriate research on and you’re responding to changes driven by the overall market and it’s not just your stock that’s just plunged. Finally, clearly the example above is clearly an exaggeration. But you all knew that because you’re not stupid, are you?
I'm out of the game now too, but never bought into the double down mentality.
I'm sure your strategies we're very successful and you made lots of money before you quit, but my thinking was always thus:
No matter how well you research, as a PI you've only ever in possession of a minority of the relevant facts. If a share is tanking (i.e. losing more than 15-20% in a short period), and there's no obvious explanation, it's probably down to factors beyond your knowledge. Once that information is common market knowledge, the price is only going to go one way. Alternatively, that information doesn't become common knowledge, in which case all the other PIs are spooked and it heads south anyway. Sure, there are cases where the market panics for no good reason and the price bounces, or it over-reacts to bad news and a shock is followed by a minor correction, but in a world of such imperfect information, trading is a game of staying on the right side of the odds, and with so many potential winners out there, why back a proven loser?

The other scenario you mention is "changes driven by the overall market". I don't know about you, but I never held large amounts of free cash - that's just dead money. So if I wanted to buy a non-insignificant number of, say, Vodafone shares, something else would have to be sold. If the whole market had tanked 5%, what would be the point in selling out of something that had lost 5% to buy into something else that had also lost 5%?

In the very specific situation that I was sitting on a decent cash reserve, there was a share I really wanted into, that share had just dropped x%, and I was thoroughly convinced that the drop was driven purely by everyone else over-reacting to a more general market movement, then I guess that might be a good day to buy in. Doubling down to make your averages look better (even though the absolutes are plummeting) is a mug's game though.
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NotoriousREV
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Re: World financial doom

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My flippant answer doesn’t really cover my trading style at all, it was merely illustrative. I wouldn’t still be in a position that had just dropped 50% in reality. But if I’ve selected a stock for long term investment (I buy a lot more than I sell) then a price drop just means I get to buy more for my monthly investment than if the price was higher, even if my overall portfolio is worth less at that time. Unless it hits my stop loss, of course. I try to buy stocks when they look undervalued, and I think yesterday that applied to a huge number of stocks. For example Thomas Cook are back up 9% today.

But given that for all the time and money I spent researching methodologies, I couldn’t consistently outperform the S&P500, I’ve just reverted to sticking with that, plus a small portfolio off stuff I’d picked up along the way, plus the RSAs I get from work.

I still dabble for fun because I love the process of constructing a theory, testing and refining it, but I don’t think it’ll ever make me a billionaire.
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duncs500
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Re: World financial doom

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NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:35 pm
But given that for all the time and money I spent researching methodologies, I couldn’t consistently outperform the S&P500, I’ve just reverted to sticking with that, plus a small portfolio off stuff I’d picked up along the way, plus the RSAs I get from work.

I still dabble for fun because I love the process of constructing a theory, testing and refining it, but I don’t think it’ll ever make me a billionaire.
Don't best yourself up Rev, from what I've read very few professional fund managers are actually capable of outperforming the index.
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Nefarious
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Nefarious »

NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:35 pm But given that for all the time and money I spent researching methodologies, I couldn’t consistently outperform the S&P500, I’ve just reverted to sticking with that, plus a small portfolio off stuff I’d picked up along the way, plus the RSAs I get from work.
I was doing OK. Fairly risk-averse, but still pulling a steady 12-14% pa.
Then I got stung on what was effectively an insider scam by JP Morgan (they were acting as advisors around a potential sale, and heavily shorting at the same time, claiming chinese wall).
At that point I decided that as a PI, you'd only ever be playing catch up to the big boys, and put it all back into bricks and mortar.
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough"
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NotoriousREV
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Re: World financial doom

Post by NotoriousREV »

duncs500 wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:06 pm
NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:35 pm
But given that for all the time and money I spent researching methodologies, I couldn’t consistently outperform the S&P500, I’ve just reverted to sticking with that, plus a small portfolio off stuff I’d picked up along the way, plus the RSAs I get from work.

I still dabble for fun because I love the process of constructing a theory, testing and refining it, but I don’t think it’ll ever make me a billionaire.
Don't best yourself up Rev, from what I've read very few professional fund managers are actually capable of outperforming the index.
I still hope to stumble on something spectacular 😁
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Re: World financial doom

Post by JLv3.0 »

Nefarious wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:47 pm
NotoriousREV wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:35 pm But given that for all the time and money I spent researching methodologies, I couldn’t consistently outperform the S&P500, I’ve just reverted to sticking with that, plus a small portfolio off stuff I’d picked up along the way, plus the RSAs I get from work.
I was doing OK. Fairly risk-averse, but still pulling a steady 12-14% pa.
Then I got stung on what was effectively an insider scam by JP Morgan (they were acting as advisors around a potential sale, and heavily shorting at the same time, claiming chinese wall).
At that point I decided that as a PI, you'd only ever be playing catch up to the big boys, and put it all back into bricks and mortar.
Yeah and what have you got to show for it?

Besides retirement at 40, a race car and tons of awesome shit?

Apart from that?
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Nefarious
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Re: World financial doom

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Mustn't grumble, I suppose ;-)

I do still feel a little bitter about my trading experiences - three years in the game, focused almost exclusively on an area I was working as an analyst in anyway (telecoms), so about as well informed/researched as I could possibly be, and still ultimately screwed over by the institutional guys. Still, it earned enough to get the ball rolling with the letting business, so I'm not losing too much sleep about it...
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240PP
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Re: World financial doom

Post by 240PP »

Trading in a few stocks as a small sideline has always interested me but I've never had the first idea where to start. I tried an Ayondo account but got badly burnt by one trader (their highest ranked) and lost the lot, not a huge amount but enough to put me off. Lesson learned there.

Vanguard is a name that keeps cropping up. Anyone here have any experience?
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Orange Cola
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Orange Cola »

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:54 pm Excessive borrowing and the spectre of rising interest rates.
Ah yes. It’ll be interesting to see where that goes.

There’s also been some talk about the car market bubble bursting because folk are trapped into leasing new cars at the end of each term. No one is buying the second hand stock because interest rates on a used car are so high most people opt for a brand new car and often for less money per month. As that’s largely gone quiet I can only assume there’s been a fix brought in.
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Jobbo »

All that needs to happen is a finance house offers sensible interest rates on used car PCPs. There’s no real reason why the manufacturer incentives couldn’t be used for approved used stock.

It’s not exactly a bubble anyway on normal cars. The only used car bubble is 911 GT3s etc.
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Re: World financial doom

Post by integrale_evo »

If no one is buying the secondhand ex lease cars then surely they'll just make leases more expensive to compensate for the expected extra depreciation after having to sell the used car cheaper until they sort of balance out again?
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Broccers
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Broccers »

Leasing Golf Rs I can comment on. My 2015 was offered to purchase at 19 ish grand after 2 years. Its still a fair price for a 30k mile car.

With regards to investing money it's still amazing I see lots of experts but they are still working doing the same thing. So I call that as bull.

My own has gone up and down. Its a more expensive casino. Better to enjoy your money while you are able rather than planning for when you aren't.
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Foz
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Re: World financial doom

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Nefarious wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:28 pm Mustn't grumble, I suppose ;-)

I do still feel a little bitter about my trading experiences - three years in the game, focused almost exclusively on an area I was working as an analyst in anyway (telecoms), so about as well informed/researched as I could possibly be, and still ultimately screwed over by the institutional guys. Still, it earned enough to get the ball rolling with the letting business, so I'm not losing too much sleep about it...
Interesting post, and that pretty much backs up my experiences, the big boys always win, the system finds way of screwing you, when you cant get out on a losing position or execute and get out of a winning position.

The only Winners are those inside trading, allegedly!
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NotoriousREV
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Re: World financial doom

Post by NotoriousREV »

Foz wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:35 am
Nefarious wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:28 pm Mustn't grumble, I suppose ;-)

I do still feel a little bitter about my trading experiences - three years in the game, focused almost exclusively on an area I was working as an analyst in anyway (telecoms), so about as well informed/researched as I could possibly be, and still ultimately screwed over by the institutional guys. Still, it earned enough to get the ball rolling with the letting business, so I'm not losing too much sleep about it...
Interesting post, and that pretty much backs up my experiences, the big boys always win, the system finds way of screwing you, when you cant get out on a losing position or execute and get out of a winning position.

The only Winners are those inside trading, allegedly!
Unless you pay extra for guaranteed stops, of course :roll:
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Foz
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Foz »

NotoriousREV wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:12 am
Foz wrote: Thu Oct 25, 2018 8:35 am
Nefarious wrote: Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:28 pm Mustn't grumble, I suppose ;-)

I do still feel a little bitter about my trading experiences - three years in the game, focused almost exclusively on an area I was working as an analyst in anyway (telecoms), so about as well informed/researched as I could possibly be, and still ultimately screwed over by the institutional guys. Still, it earned enough to get the ball rolling with the letting business, so I'm not losing too much sleep about it...
Interesting post, and that pretty much backs up my experiences, the big boys always win, the system finds way of screwing you, when you cant get out on a losing position or execute and get out of a winning position.

The only Winners are those inside trading, allegedly!
Unless you pay extra for guaranteed stops, of course :roll:
Except when the system somehow jumps those stops and you find yourself in “exceptional market conditions” whereby you get shafted.

I did exceptionally well in the past but I was into the the highest risk areas. My appetite for risk is diminishing the older I get!
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Broccers »

Glad I didnt double up on Voda :lol: :lol:

Interesting article on Bloomberg yesterday about shorting of banks in the EU.
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NotoriousREV
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Re: World financial doom

Post by NotoriousREV »

Broccers wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:19 pm Glad I didnt double up on Voda :lol: :lol:
Vodafone closed at 146.24 on the day we were discussing this. They're 146.96 as I'm writing this. That's 0.4% profit!
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Re: World financial doom

Post by Broccers »

NotoriousREV wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:24 pm
Broccers wrote: Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:19 pm Glad I didnt double up on Voda :lol: :lol:
Vodafone closed at 146.24 on the day we were discussing this. They're 146.96 as I'm writing this. That's 0.4% profit!
Its less. Even less after fees / tax like a loss ;) Anyway I will buy some more eventually as the div is worth having.
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