Who Lives, Who Dies

[SSO]

New article on which super and hypercars are likely to make it to production or get killed off:

https://karenable.com

Comments?

[RobYob]

The DeTomaso needs the Batista's underpinnings.
The Elva and Speedster are the answer to a question I can't imagine anyone asking.
The Valkyrie is the lemans car you can't race at lemans.
The SCG will hopefully be the race car you can race at lemans and NRing

The T50 could be the epic farewell to ICE Hypercars we deserve.

[SSO]

The DeTomaso needs the Batista's underpinnings.
The Elva and Speedster are the answer to a question I can't imagine anyone asking.
The Valkyrie is the lemans car you can't race at lemans.
The SCG will hopefully be the race car you can race at lemans and NRing

The T50 could be the epic farewell to ICE Hypercars we deserve.

I believe the Battista is pretty much dead. It was really never anything more than a rebodied Rimac.

The De Tomaso is far too big and fat. In terms of performance, it will not scare anyone on a track.

Aston has really pouched it but pulling the Valkyrie out of LeMans.

SCG will definitely race.

[RobYob]

Didn't know of the Rimac connection, Rimac will probably bring their own HyperEV out soon.

Disappointing as it is that Valkyrie isn't going to race, the Hypercars did seem to be being stitched up by the regulation changes from what I've read.

[SSO]

Didn't know of the Rimac connection, Rimac will probably bring their own HyperEV out soon.

Disappointing as it is that Valkyrie isn't going to race, the Hypercars did seem to be being stitched up by the regulation changes from what I've read.

Actually it was Aston that pushed for a number of the reg changes, then bailed on racing. Not impressive.......

[RobYob]

Actually it was Aston that pushed for a number of the reg changes, then bailed on racing. Not impressive.......

Unlikely Aston pushed for the "LMP2" Prototype class to be given equal standing with the Hypercars, it gave them a very easy "out" whatever other reasons they may have had for withdrawing the Valkyrie from LeMans (Stoll/F1/£££/BOP). ACO Could have still supported a premier LMH with Toyota/SCG/ByKolles in "Class1" rather than converging LMH and LMDh. LMH certainly won't be luring Ferrari/Porsche/Lamborghini back to the top level anymore.

Just sad that the opportunity for a new era of GT1 has been shafted.

On the bright side of Endurance racing, it's only 3 months to the 2020 Nurburgring 24hr

[Foz]

Lotus Evija?

[RobYob]

Lotus Evija?

If I were to guess I'd say it's well funded as a Geely vanity project.

[Orange Cola]

I’ve spoken to some of the Valkyrie engineers and it’s not, errm, going very well over there. Big staff turn over, lots of fundamental engineering issues (doesn’t meet legals in a few key areas) and no one coming in to pick up those topics, only three cars actually built which get repainted to make it look like they’ve got more built than they really have and now big job losses.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it delayed again. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Stroll cut the company losses on it and concentrated more on the core business.

[SSO]

Lotus Evija?

If I were to guess I'd say it's well funded as a Geely vanity project.

Strategically it make zero sense to me. Complete waste of time for Lotus.

[SSO]

I’ve spoken to some of the Valkyrie engineers and it’s not, errm, going very well over there. Big staff turn over, lots of fundamental engineering issues (doesn’t meet legals in a few key areas) and no one coming in to pick up those topics, only three cars actually built which get repainted to make it look like they’ve got more built than they really have and now big job losses.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it delayed again. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Stroll cut the company losses on it and concentrated more on the core business.

Not surprised at all. Aston is a complete mess right now.

I had another former Valhalla depositor contact me last night. He estimates they are down from close to 500 deposits to around 70 now.

[SSO]

Actually it was Aston that pushed for a number of the reg changes, then bailed on racing. Not impressive.......

Unlikely Aston pushed for the "LMP2" Prototype class to be given equal standing with the Hypercars, it gave them a very easy "out" whatever other reasons they may have had for withdrawing the Valkyrie from LeMans (Stoll/F1/£££/BOP). ACO Could have still supported a premier LMH with Toyota/SCG/ByKolles in "Class1" rather than converging LMH and LMDh. LMH certainly won't be luring Ferrari/Porsche/Lamborghini back to the top level anymore.

Just sad that the opportunity for a new era of GT1 has been shafted.

On the bright side of Endurance racing, it's only 3 months to the 2020 Nurburgring 24hr

Issue with Aston was on the engines. They pushed for changes that they were given and then bailed. Screwed SCG in the process.

[Orange Cola]

I’ve spoken to some of the Valkyrie engineers and it’s not, errm, going very well over there. Big staff turn over, lots of fundamental engineering issues (doesn’t meet legals in a few key areas) and no one coming in to pick up those topics, only three cars actually built which get repainted to make it look like they’ve got more built than they really have and now big job losses.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see it delayed again. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Stroll cut the company losses on it and concentrated more on the core business.

Not surprised at all. Aston is a complete mess right now.

I had another former Valhalla depositor contact me last night. He estimates they are down from close to 500 deposits to around 70 now.

I have googled the Valhalla, doesn’t look particularly special for either an Aston or a supercar. I think they’ve really lost their way. Hopefully they’ll also see sense and pull the plug on their V6 turbo engine, it takes around five years and hundreds of millions develop an all new engine, then there’s the inevitable teething problems A they’ll have to pay out for when customers get their hands on them. It’s a step too far for such a small company in trouble.

[RobYob]

Issue with Aston was on the engines. They pushed for changes that they were given and then bailed. Screwed SCG in the process.

The ACO didn't have to lower the power limit back down again to commonise with LMDh though. That screws Glickenhaus twice over running their new specially developed engine in a detuned state. LMH could have still had nearly 800hp.

Lotus Strategy... That's a big topic, put that on the agenda for a Friday night beers sometime Certainly half it's justification will be how much media attention it gets and bringing some feedgood factor to the Geely era which has so far produced not a lot.

[SSO]

Issue with Aston was on the engines. They pushed for changes that they were given and then bailed. Screwed SCG in the process.

The ACO didn't have to lower the power limit back down again to commonise with LMDh though. That screws Glickenhaus twice over running their new specially developed engine in a detuned state. LMH could have still had nearly 800hp.

Lotus Strategy... That's a big topic, put that on the agenda for a Friday night beers sometime Certainly half it's justification will be how much media attention it gets and bringing some feedgood factor to the Geely era which has so far produced not a lot.

Lotus would get a lot more attention and good will by launching a cf tub based update of the Elise with 350-400 bph. Basically take the Alfa 4C and do it right.

[Foz]

Except the carbon tub offers such limited benefits for the cost..

Never got the halo car principle!

[SSO]

Except the carbon tub offers such limited benefits for the cost..

Never got the halo car principle!

Part of it was because Alfa used a pretty crap CF tub.

[RobYob]

Lotus would get a lot more attention and good will by launching a cf tub based update of the Elise with 350-400 bph. Basically take the Alfa 4C and do it right.

The perennial "How to make a small fortune in sports cars" question*...

Attention, maybe
Goodwill, certainly
Profit, ???

Not sure a CF tub is going to do much for the Lotus Elise/Exige small cars, other than create an internet ruckus from people who definitely would have bought one were it not for anti CF tub "reasons".

Now what dafuk do you DO with the Lotus' "People's Hero" small cars? They exist within the niche of a niche where you apply cheap power from a mass manufacturer to a tiny chassis and added some R&H magic (expensive dampers). You have to do it against might of the VW empire (queue Vader's theme) with collosal resources, economies of scale and Porsche's 24 carat brand which makes them the default choice 99 times out of 100.

Being cold blooded about what Lotus should/could be I'd say in the current era of hot hatches with 3-400hp being the "People's Hero" is a mug's game. For the same production volume you can make vastly more margin being a McLaren/AML/Bentley selling to the top end of town. Fundamently I think mad Danny's "five car plan" was the right one at the time, its criminally incompetent execution put Lotus into a development coma for the last decade until Geely's money came along.

What Lotus also lacked for the last two decades is any kind of synergy with their owners for parts and development cost sharing and any kind of forward thinking leadership at corporate level. Lotus could well have had an alloy monocoque premium SUV to market before Cayenne came along and started brimming the coffers in Weissach. The concept was made, shown and forgotten about.

So what could Lotus become in the Geely era? Well the simplest transition would be to remain people's hero and adapt everything possible from the Geely parts bin into Elise/Exige. That of course means no more V6 engines, ongoing low margins and limited return for Geely in terms of polishing the brand. Unless of course they outsource a Halo project of eye watering specification and price. Having a sportscar and a hypercar without a supercar in the same portfolio may work, although I'm not sure anyone has tried that hard. Cadillac Cien?

I very much hope Geely have a great plan for Lotus, they've been stuck between a rock and a hard place since, well, forever.



*For reference.
Best sales for the 4C was 2015 with 663 sold in the US in the US and 2016 in Europe with 1179. I'd seriously doubt it paid for itself other than in brand exposure.

[SSO]

Lotus would get a lot more attention and good will by launching a cf tub based update of the Elise with 350-400 bph. Basically take the Alfa 4C and do it right.

The perennial "How to make a small fortune in sports cars" question*...

Attention, maybe
Goodwill, certainly
Profit, ???

Not sure a CF tub is going to do much for the Lotus Elise/Exige small cars, other than create an internet ruckus from people who definitely would have bought one were it not for anti CF tub "reasons".

Now what dafuk do you DO with the Lotus' "People's Hero" small cars? They exist within the niche of a niche where you apply cheap power from a mass manufacturer to a tiny chassis and added some R&H magic (expensive dampers). You have to do it against might of the VW empire (queue Vader's theme) with collosal resources, economies of scale and Porsche's 24 carat brand which makes them the default choice 99 times out of 100.

Being cold blooded about what Lotus should/could be I'd say in the current era of hot hatches with 3-400hp being the "People's Hero" is a mug's game. For the same production volume you can make vastly more margin being a McLaren/AML/Bentley selling to the top end of town. Fundamently I think mad Danny's "five car plan" was the right one at the time, its criminally incompetent execution put Lotus into a development coma for the last decade until Geely's money came along.

What Lotus also lacked for the last two decades is any kind of synergy with their owners for parts and development cost sharing and any kind of forward thinking leadership at corporate level. Lotus could well have had an alloy monocoque premium SUV to market before Cayenne came along and started brimming the coffers in Weissach. The concept was made, shown and forgotten about.

So what could Lotus become in the Geely era? Well the simplest transition would be to remain people's hero and adapt everything possible from the Geely parts bin into Elise/Exige. That of course means no more V6 engines, ongoing low margins and limited return for Geely in terms of polishing the brand. Unless of course they outsource a Halo project of eye watering specification and price. Having a sportscar and a hypercar without a supercar in the same portfolio may work, although I'm not sure anyone has tried that hard. Cadillac Cien?

I very much hope Geely have a great plan for Lotus, they've been stuck between a rock and a hard place since, well, forever.



*For reference.
Best sales for the 4C was 2015 with 663 sold in the US in the US and 2016 in Europe with 1179. I'd seriously doubt it paid for itself other than in brand exposure.

Geely also owns Volvo. I would use that as the source for engines and transmissions and keep dropping them into light weight, great handling, sports cars.

Agree on Danny Bahr, I have met him and he is a true idiot.

[Orange Cola]

Agree on Danny Bahr, I have met him and he is a true idiot.

It will be interesting to revisit this thread over the months to see what pans out. Are you planning on doing any updates as the market changes take effect?